| USD is Bid in Risk Off Day Posted: 31 Oct 2011 08:10 AM PDT 
With the monthly close coming today which caps an October that saw a sharp run up in the prices of risky assets the USD has caught a bid. $89 Bn of this bid likely came from the Japanese Ministry of Finance and increased criticism of the European agreement has most markets risk averse to start the week. The bankruptcy filing by MF Global may have played a part in the day's movement as the broker is a major player in many fixed income and derivative markets including European bonds. European data underperformed today with an unexpected increase in the Italian unemployment rate and disappointing German retail sales for the month of September which fell 0.14%. US data was also lower than expected with the Chicago PMI slipping to 58.4 from 60.4. Expectations were for a smaller decline to 59.2. On a bright note Canadian GDP was stronger than forecasted rising 0.3% in August on consensus forecasts of 0.2%. This week has a number of headline events with three central bank meetings (RBA, Fed, ECB) and key data points from both the UK (Q3 GDP) and the US (NFP). The EUR/USD has come off of its Thursday high and is testing short term support at 1.3980. A break here and the pair could shed another 70 pips to the October 17th high of 1.3910. Cable looks stronger prior to tomorrow's glut of UK data. Resistance comes in at last week's high/200-day moving average at 1.6150 with the next major resistance at the late August high of 1.6450. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.  |
| Canadian GDP Data Reveals Stable Growth Posted: 31 Oct 2011 06:04 AM PDT 
The early afternoon release of Canada's GDP data revealed an economy in modest stability. The release of a nation's gross domestic product report is a strong indicator of that nation's economic health and well-being. Today's release revealed to investors that Canada's economy is stronger than previously assumed. The forecasts for today's numbers were for a mildly sluggish publication of 0.2%, below last quarter's 0.3% growth. The actual reading of 0.3% has given traders cause to look over their numbers once again and revalue their Canadian dollar (CAD) positions. Look to the CAD making decently bullish moves throughout the week as one result of today's numbers. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.  |
| Japanese Home Construction Expecting Sharp Plummet Posted: 31 Oct 2011 06:01 AM PDT
This morning's early publication of Japanese housing starts portrayed a capital economy in deep contraction heading into the end of 2011. Housing starts are an indicator of the number of private homes starting construction, making it an early gauge of domestic capital investment and early consumer spending and optimism. The indicator was expected to show a modest uptick of approximately 8.3% this month. The shocking 10.8% contraction in housing starts has riled several large investors. The Japanese yen (JPY) was trading with mixed results as a consequence and some are wondering what impact this will have on yen values as the year comes to a close. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.  |
| German Retail Sales Underperforming Posted: 31 Oct 2011 05:57 AM PDT
The euro zone continues to struggle with economic data heading into the fourth quarter of 2011. This morning's publication of Germany's retail sales revealed even more sluggish growth in the region's largest economy. The report was expected to show a healthy month-on-month growth of 1.1%, a solid uptick from last month's 2.7% contraction. The actual reading, while far better than last month's, was still shy of the mark with only 0.4% growth being reported. The impact has been a mild downward tug on the EUR since the data's release. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.  |
| Weekly Technical FX Preview – Japanese Intervention Fails to Break USD/JPY Downtrend Posted: 31 Oct 2011 02:18 AM PDT
Another round of FX intervention has lifted the USD/JPY 400 pips for a 5.29% gain. EUR/USD An impressive run higher over the month of October took the EUR/USD as high as 1.4250, the 61% retracement from the May to October move. However, a failure of the pair to overcome this key technical mark does not bode well for the EUR in the near term. Also worth noting is the failure of the pair to move above its previously broken trend line from the June 2010 and the January 2011 lows. Falling stochastics on the daily and weekly chart also point to declines in the value EUR/USD. Support is located at 1.3915 from the October 17th high followed by 1.3650 off of the October 18th low and the October low at 1.3145. The 61% retracement level will serve as initial resistance with additional selling perhaps at 1.4450 from the trend line off of the May and July highs. 
GBP/USD Cable has failed to climb above both its 200-day moving average and stopped short of its 61% Fibonacci retracement target from the April to October move which at 1.6150 should serve as initial resistance. A move higher could go on to test the 1.6450 resistance off of the August high though daily stochastics have crossed and the weekly stochastics are beginning to roll lower as well. As such, a move lower could find support at 1.5890 from the October 26th low as well as the October 18th low of 1.5630. 
USD/JPY Another round of intervention has lifted the USD/JPY 400 pips for a 5.29% gain. However, the pair's sharp move higher was unable to break a key falling trend line from the 2007 high which comes in this week at 79.70. With the long term downtrend still intact a move lower may once again test the all-time lows the pair will first encounter support at 77.85 from the September high as well as 77.50 from the mid-October high. Should the intervention continue the Japanese Ministry of Finance may find willing offers waiting at 80.20 which was the peak of the last round of intervention in August. 
USD/CHF The Swiss franc has once again resumed its downtrend versus the USD after moving as low as 0.8550, a level that has previously served as both support and resistance. A bounce from here could find an offer at 0.8900 from the resistance line off of the October peak. Should the downtrend from October extend into November a break of 0.8550 may have scope to 0.8240 from the August high. 
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