FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

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• Crude Oil Proves Hard to Predict Ahead of New Year
• Gold Is Heading Towards an All-Time High
• USD/CHF – Moves Past Previous Low
• USD/NOK Due For Bullish Reversal
• Kroner Capitalizes on Low Volatility in the Marketplace
• Technical Analysis Provide Bullish Signals for NZD/USD
• USD/JPY –Testing Trend Line; Bearish Trend to Resume
• EUR/USD – Short Opportunity at the Trend Line
• US Consumer Confidence to Lead Today’s Trading

Crude Oil Proves Hard to Predict Ahead of New Year Posted: 28 Dec 2010 09:13 AM PST Crude oil was little changed today, largely due to the low liquidity seen in the marketplace following the Christmas holiday. While the commodity saw a brief spike in prices earlier, peaking at 91.65, it has since dropped back to its earlier levels. Currently crude oil is trading just above 91.30. Analysts are currently in agreement that while oil could spike and fall in the coming days due to low market volatility, no significant change is expected. That being said, traders will want to pay attention to the movements of the major currencies in the days ahead. Oil typically rises and falls with the movements of the euro and US dollar. With the euro currently down because of the recent Irish debt crisis, it is not out of the question that crude oil could fall well below the 91.00 level ahead of the new year. In addition, traders will want to pay attention to Thursday’s US Crude Oil Inventories figure. Currently analysts are predicting an increase in US stockpiles. Typically this means that oil prices would go up due to an increased demand. While this very well could occur, no one is really sure what could happen in this market environment.

Gold Is Heading Towards an All-Time High Posted: 28 Dec 2010 06:21 AM PST After several weeks that gold's bullishness was restricted, gold is once again providing strict bullish signals. It was only three weeks ago, on December 7 that gold climbed to an all-time nominal high of $1,431 an ounce. However this was followed by a sharp correction that took gold as low as the $1,361 level. Currently, gold is once again trading above $1,400 an ounce, and there are several technical analysis indications, that the record high might be breached soon. • The chart below is the spot gold 8-hour chart by ForexYard. • After several weeks of sluggish trading, gold has gained more than 2,000 pips today, climbing from $1,380 to $1,402 an ounce. • The bullish channel in the end of the chart seems very accurate, suggesting that there is still more bullishness to come. • In addition, the Slow Stochastic has reached above the 80-line, and is still pointing up. This indicates that the bullish momentum has more room to go. • The MACD has recently completed a bullish cross, further strengthening the bullish notion. • Gold's next significant resistance level is at $1,410 an ounce. If it manages to breach it, gold has potential to gain to the $1,423 level, only $8 below an all-time high. • Gold's next resistance levels are located at $1,410, $1,423 and $1,431 an ounce. • Gold's next support levels are at: $1,382, $1,370 and $1,360 an ounce.

USD/CHF – Moves Past Previous Low Posted: 28 Dec 2010 03:39 AM PST The USD/CHF has continued its previous downtrend, moving below the all-time low for the pair set in October at 0.9559. A channel has formed from the price action beginning in December and a price target may be estimated via the lower line of the channel. Resistance comes in at last week's low at 0.9500 followed by the high of today's candlestick at 0.9560 and 0.9650.

USD/NOK Due For Bullish Reversal Posted: 28 Dec 2010 03:30 AM PST Over the last week, the USD/NOK has experienced a substantial bearish trend. While the pair has fallen over 1000 pips in that time, technical indicators are now showing that an upward correction may occur in the very near future. For our analysis today, we will be looking at the 8-hour USD/NOK chart, provided by Forexyard. The technical indicators being examined are the Bollinger Bands, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Williams Percent Range. 1. The Bollinger Bands have begun widening, while the latest candle stick is currently below the lower band. These are both signs that a bullish correction will likely take place. 2. The Relative Strength Index is currently right around 30. Typically, the pair is considered oversold when this indicator is at 30 or below. Traders can take this as a sign that upward movement is imminent. 3. The Williams Percent Range is currently at -90. When this indicator drops below -80, the pair usually sees a bullish reversal. This further supports our original theory. Traders will want to enter into buy positions for this pair before the upward breach.

Kroner Capitalizes on Low Volatility in the Marketplace Posted: 28 Dec 2010 03:26 AM PST The Scandinavian kroner made gains virtually across the board in the last week, as the combination of the Irish debt-crisis and low market volatility created less demand for the unstable euro and US dollar. Investor confidence in the euro-zone’s ability to combat its ever mounting debt has driven the common currency down in recent weeks. At the same time, the Christmas and New Year’s holidays have meant that there has been very little fundamental news in the last week to influence the markets. In the last week, the USD/SEK has fallen close to 1000 pips, while the USD/NOK has tumbled close to 1100 pips. Currently the pairs are trading at 6.7765 and 5.9100, respectively. The gains the kroner have made against the euro have been less stark. The EUR/NOK pair has dropped around 500 pips in the last week, while the EUR/SEK has only fallen 200 pips. Analysts attribute this to the recent announcement that China will stand by the euro-zone and help buy up its debt. The low volatility currently in the market place will likely remain for the remainder of this week. Next week promises to be significantly more exciting as the US Non-Farm Employment Change figure is set to be released. While it is still too early to predict what the employment statistic will look like, a positive figure may be able to boost the dollar against its Scandinavian counterparts.

Technical Analysis Provide Bullish Signals for NZD/USD Posted: 28 Dec 2010 02:08 AM PST The NZD/USD has recently recovered from a 3-month low, trading as low as the 0.7340 level but failed several times to breach below this price. However, over the past weeks, the pair began to correct these losses and is currently trading near the 0.7525 level. In addition, bullish signals on the 8-hour chart suggest that the pair's uptrend is likely to proceed. • The chart below is the NZD/USD 8-hour chart. • It can be seen that a bullish channel has formed after the pair recovered from a 3-month low. • The pair is currently floating in the midst of the channel, suggesting that the bullish momentum has more steam in it. • In addition, a bullish cross took place on the Slow Stochastic, also indicating that the bullish move has more room to go. • Another bullish signal comes from the MACD which continues to point upwards and is currently floating near the 0.00 line. Potentially, the MACD can reach as high as the 0.10 level, and the pair is likely to follow it. • The next resistance levels are located at the 0.7575, 0.7630 and 0.7665 levels. • The next support levels are at: 0.7460, 0.7405 and 0.7340.

USD/JPY –Testing Trend Line; Bearish Trend to Resume Posted: 28 Dec 2010 01:32 AM PST Currently the USD/JPY is testing the rising trend line from off of the yearly low for the pair. A breach of the line may trigger further gains for the yen and a continuation of the long term trend. Following two weeks of declines, the USD/JPY is trading close to the rising trend from the low in October from 80.23. Should the pair make a close below this trend line, the October low would make for a good target. Support for the USD/JPY rests at 82.80 followed by the falling trend line from the December high that comes in today at 83.15.

EUR/USD – Short Opportunity at the Trend Line Posted: 27 Dec 2010 11:50 PM PST An early morning rally in light liquidity has sent the EUR/USD close to its downward sloping trend line, setting up an entry opportunity to go short. Following a rise in the price of the EUR/USD during the Japanese trading hours, the pair is trading close to its downward sloping trend line that falls from the November high and has a contact point in mid-December. Traders can use this point as a setup to go short on the pair that is in a clear downtrend since November. The trend line should act as a resistance to any further move higher. The first target will be the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the June to November move at a price of 1.3080. This area has served as a support level during the consolidation pattern of the past two weeks. Further support will be the 200-day moving average which comes in today at 1.3040, as well as the November low at 1.2870. A stop loss can be placed above the close of yesterday's candle by 20 pips at a price of 1.3274, giving traders a healthy 5:1 profit to risk ratio.

US Consumer Confidence to Lead Today’s Trading Posted: 27 Dec 2010 10:41 PM PST Yesterday, trading ranks were extremely thin. British and Canadian Banks were closed on Monday and Tuesday for holidays and a blizzard in New York limited activity, ensuring only minor price fluctuations. Without these economic giants pumping liquidity into the market, most current trends will remain as they are for the next day or two, and traders can benefit by jumping into these trends before they finally come to an end. Here are a few of today's leading events: 7:00 GMT: CHF Consumption Indicator This monthly report measures the level of a composite index based on 5 consumer- based economic indicators. If the end result will be better than the previous one 1.72 the CHF might strengthen as a result. 15:00 GMT: US Consumer Confidence The Consumer Confidence report provides an excellent gauge of current economic conditions and overall economic situations. As a leading indicator of consumer spending, this report has a direct correlation with the strength of the US economy. Today's forecast is expected to be higher than last month, indicating a positive return to economic normalcy is beginning to get underway. Such an outcome should boost the USD ahead of the New Year.

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