Tuesday, January 4, 2011

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

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Platinum on the Rise, Targets $1,800 an Ounce

Posted: 03 Jan 2011 04:10 AM PST

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Spot platinum is in the midst of a very distinct bullish channel and is currently trading near $1,780 an ounce. Platinum's bullish trend is quite remarkable, considering that it has climbed from $1,690 an ounce within no more than two weeks.

At the moment, the 4-hour chart indicates that platinum is likely to see further bullishness. A bullish cross of both the Slow Stochastic and the MACD suggests that the trend is far from over. The RSI provides a bullish signal as well. In addition, an ascending triangle pattern has been formed on the chart, indicating that platinum might reach $1,800 an ounce before the end of the trading session.

Platinum

Crude Oil Targets $93.00 a Barrel

Posted: 03 Jan 2011 03:33 AM PST

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Crude oil has shown abnormal volatility close to the end of the year. On Thursday, crude saw a 240 pip drop, falling to as low as $89.00 a barrel. Yet on Friday, just before New Year's Eve, crude saw an astonishing 300 pip appreciation, leading the commodity to $92.00 a barrel.

As this week kicks off, crude oil signals that the bullish trend is likely to proceed. Let's take a look at the 4-hour chart:

• The Slow Stochastic has just completed a bullish cross.
• The MACD saw a bullish cross on Friday, and continues to point up.
• The RSI points up as well, and is about to reach the over-bought section.

All this indicates that another bullish session is about to take place. Considering that crude has just crossed the 92.00 resistance level once again, it seems that crude's bullishness might take it to the $93.00 level later on today.

Crude Oil

Silver and Crude Oil Continue to make New Highs

Posted: 03 Jan 2011 03:23 AM PST

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The dollar and commodities kicked off the new year with a bang, trading higher versus the majors. But as the day moved on many of the dollar's gains eroded as illiquid market conditions are apparent with Japanese and European banks are closed for a holiday. Liquidity should improve with the opening of the US session.

In the European trading session the greenback shed some of its gains that were made during the Asian session. The dollar was heavily bought in the early morning hours of today as this is in stark contrast to how the dollar finished out the year.

The USD/CHF closed out the year at is yearly low. This was similar to the USD/JPY. Both pairs were sold heavily in the final two weeks of trading.

In illiquid trading, the EUR/USD was trading down at 1.3315 after opening the day at 1.3384. The GBP/USD was down sharply at 1.5643 following an opening price of 1.5610. The USD/CHF was up at 0.9361 from 0.9343, and the USD/JPY was up sharply at 81.40 from 81.13.

Commodities were stronger as well, continuing their push higher that was characteristic of year end trading. Spot crude oil prices are trading at their highest price since September 2008 at $92.11. Spot silver was trading at a high as well, pushing as high as $31.11 after opening the day at $30.83. Spot gold prices were flat at $1419.

This afternoon traders will be following the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Market expectations are for a rise to 57.0 from 56.6. Strong manufacturing data from the US may help to extend the dollar's gains into the US session as liquidity should improve with the opening of the US session.

EUR/USD resistance and support come in at Friday's high of 1.3420 and the 20-day moving average line at 1.3220.

Flag Pattern Indicates Gold Will Climb Further

Posted: 03 Jan 2011 06:16 AM PST

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Gold has become one of the most exciting investments in the market over the past six months, especially due to the vigorous bullish trend it's been going through. Within six months, gold has climbed from $1,156 an ounce to an all-time high of $1,431 an ounce. Currently, gold s trading at $1,421 an ounce, yet as the daily chart indicates, gold will see a new record high, and it shouldn't take too long.

• The chart below is the spot-gold daily chart by ForexYard.
• It can be seen that by October 14, after gold reached $1,386 an ounce, the bullish channel has reached its end, and was replaced by what seems to be range-trading.
• It can now be noted that the range-trading was in fact formed into a flag pattern.
• The flag pattern indicates that another bullish move might be expected within the near-future.
• In addition, the Bollinger Bands are increasingly tightening, suggesting that the bullish movement could take place shortly.
• The MACD has recently completed a bullish cross at a relatively low segment, suggesting that the bullish move could be a significant one.
• Nevertheless, traders should take under consideration that the RSI is pointing down, and might fall below the 70-line. If the RSI will indeed drop below the 70-line, it might indicate the end of the bullish trend, at least momentarily.
• The next resistance levels are placed at the $1,423, $1,431 and $1,450 levels.
• The next support levels are at: $1,407, $1,390 and $1,377 levels.

gold 03 01

EUR/JPY In the Midst of a Bearish Trend – Eyes 106

Posted: 03 Jan 2011 12:35 AM PST

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The EUR/JPY pair saw unusual bearishness over the past five weeks. The pair dropped about 850 pips during this period of time, despite a 450 pips correction in the middle. Currently, a technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that further bearishness might be expected, with potential to take the pair as low as the 106.00 level.

• The chart below is the EUR/JPY daily chart by ForexYard.
• The pair has recently fell towards the 107.55 level, marking a 3-month low.
• For the past week, the pair has been trading within a restricted range, between the 107.50 and the 109.00 levels.
• However, a bearish cross of the Slow Stochastic is now indicating that another bearish move might be impending.
• The MACD continues to point down, indicating that the bearish trend has more steam in it.
• The RSI continues to float below the 30-line within the over-sold section. This also indicates that the bearish move might not be over yet.
• The pair is currently trading near the 107.95 level and is likely to test the 107.50 support level later on today.
• If the pair will manage to fall below the 107.50 level, its next significant support level is only placed at the 106.70 level. The next stop after 106.70 looks to be at the 106.00 level, yet this is more likely to take place within a day or two.
• If the pair will fail to breach through the 107.50 level, its next resistance levels are located at the 108.30, 109.00 and 110.00 levels.

EUR/JPY – Daily Chart
EUR JPY

EUR/USD Sell Signals

Posted: 03 Jan 2011 12:03 AM PST

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The EUR/USD continues to consolidate between a defined range and a sell signal has popped up on the daily chart.

When looking to the daily chart, a consolidation of the EUR/USD should be apparent with the pair trading between the range of 1.3450 and a rising short term trend line off of the November low.

Further signs of consolidation can be seen from the flat 20-day simple moving average line that comes in today at 1.3220. The ADX-14 is relatively flat at 25, signaling a weak trend. This sets up an opportunity to short the pair in-line with the long term downtrend that is found when looking to the long term charts.

The daily chart shows two bearish signals; the first being the bearish cross on the slow stochastic oscillator, the second being the shaved top from yesterday's candlestick as the pair has been sold from the opening bell in Asia.

Supports for the pair can be found at the 20-day moving average at 1.3220, followed by the rising support line from the November lows at 1.3100. Further support may be the 200-day moving average at 1.3055 and the November low at 1.2970.

Resistance is located at 1.3450. A breach above the 1.3500 level could trigger further EUR/USD buying until the resistance at 1.3785.

EURUSD

USD Poised to Make Gains in First Week of 2011

Posted: 02 Jan 2011 10:12 PM PST

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As we start off the first week of 2011, the greenback seems poised to make some significant gains, as analysts are forecasting a number of positive indicators out of the US. Traders will want to pay particular attention to any US employment forecasts ahead of this Friday’s Non-Farm Employment Change report.

In the meantime, here is a roundup of the today’s main news:

15:00 GMT: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing PMI is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers who are asked to rate a number of business conditions in the US. It is widely considered a leading indicator of economic health, with a figure about 50 signaling industry expansion.

Last month’s PMI came in at 56.6, a slight drop from October, but still a solid figure. Today’s figure is forecasted to come in around 57.1. If so, it would signal significant growth in the US economy, and will likely lead to gains for the dollar against its main currency rivals.

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