FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

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• Available Now! Forex Summary and Forecast – 2010/2011
• EUR Sees Boost Following Positive German News
• Crude Oil with a Fifth Attempt to Cross the $92.60 Level
• Crude Oil Trades near $93 Level
• USD/MXN Freefall Bottoms Out
• USD/NOK Bullish Movement on the Horizon
• EUR Sees Bullish Movement against Kroner
• GBP/JPY Cross Fibonacci 76.4% Resistance Level, Aims 134.00
• GBP/USD Bearish Correction May Be in the Making
• Inflation Reports and ZEW Sentiment to Lead Today’s Markets

Available Now! Forex Summary and Forecast – 2010/2011 Posted: 18 Jan 2011 08:38 AM PST We entered the year 2011 amid a flurry of global reevaluations. Many investors were inquiring about the stability of Europe amid the bailout of Ireland all while the Korean peninsula began to intensify its militant rhetoric and posturing. On the other side of the globe, US President Barack Obama had recently agreed to an extension and expansion of the Republican-favored tax cuts, sparking speculation about the recovery of the American economy over the long run. If you were looking for a report which would summarize these events, and provide a framework for forecasting the coming year’s economic progress based on their impact, then we have what you’re looking for! Our Chief Market Analyst, Greg Holden, recently undertook the task of compiling as much fundamental data as possible to explain what happened in 2010 in order to give his renowned 2011 economic forecast. In this edition of ForexYard’s In-Depth Analysis, Mr. Holden covers the sharp price swings among the major currencies last year, particularly the EUR, USD and GBP. He also analyzed the rise of the Swiss franc (CHF) as a global safe-haven away from even the US dollar. Minor commentary was added regarding the Korean escalation and China’s recent expansionary moves, but what is most useful is the concluding segment of each chapter and sub-chapter, providing valued insight into what investors may expect as 2011 gets underway. Don’t miss out on this unique opportunity to learn from the best in the business. Download a copy of our In-Depth Analysis today and better prepare yourself for a year of lucrative profits in the forex market.

EUR Sees Boost Following Positive German News Posted: 18 Jan 2011 07:55 AM PST The most significant news event of the day was without a doubt the German ZEW Economic Sentiment figure released earlier this morning. The figure surprised analysts when it came in at 15.4, well above the predicted level of 6.5. Economic sentiment in Germany has now risen for three months in a row, a phenomenon that can be attributed to an increase in German exports and a surge in hiring across the country. Investor concerns regarding the euro-zone debt crisis were brushed aside following the release of the report in yet another sign that at least part of the EU is recovering from the economic crisis. The euro responded very positively to the news, and was able to extend its bullish run against virtually all of its currency rivals. The EUR/USD has gone up almost 60 pips since this morning, and the pair is currently trading well above the 1.3400 level. Similarly, the EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP recorded strong bullish movement throughout the day. The pairs are currently trading at 111.10 and 0.8390, respectively. Whether or not the euro will be able to maintain its current momentum is still very much up in the air. Analysts are warning traders not to become overconfident in the euro-zone recovery. While today’s news was overwhelmingly positive, it needs to be remembered that the news was regarding one country, not the EU as a whole. Sovereign debt concerns are still very much a part of the discussion on the euro-zone economic situation. Any news of another debt crisis will likely weigh heavily on the EUR.

Crude Oil with a Fifth Attempt to Cross the $92.60 Level Posted: 18 Jan 2011 06:33 AM PST By observing the weekly chart, it can be easily deduced that crude oil has advanced gradually since February 2008. The commodity has almost tripled in value from $33 a barrel to its current level of $92 in less than 2 years. At the moment, technical analysis is showing us that crude oil is testing a very strong resistance level. If it successfully reaches this level, crude may reach $100 a barrel before the end of the week. • The chart below is the crude oil 1-week chart by ForexYard. • It can be seen that a gradual bullish trend has taken place since February 2008. • Crude oil saw four different bullish channels during that period of time. • The first bullish channel was blocked at the $75.00 level, after crude climbed from $33.50 a barrel. • The second bullish channel was blocked at the $82.60 level, after crude climbed from $65.30 a barrel. • The third bullish channel was blocked at the $87.00 level, after crude climbed from $69.30 a barrel. • The fourth bullish channel is still taking place. The channel was formed at the $73.40 level, and crude oil is currently trading near the $92.10 level. • Over the past month, crude saw five consecutive failed attempts to test the $92.60 resistance level. • As the MACD continues to provide bullish signals, crude oil might see another attempt to cross the $92.60 level today. • If crude oil will manage to breach trough the resistance level, a new bullish channel is likely to take place – with potential to reach as high as $100 a barrel. • The next resistance levels are located at: $92.60, $93.00 and $94.50. • The next support level are at: $91.30, $90.70 and $90.00

Crude Oil Trades near $93 Level Posted: 18 Jan 2011 04:26 AM PST Crude Oil prices rose significantly in the last two days and peaked at $92.77 per barrel. However, daily chart’s Williams Percent Range is floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. In addition, there actually appears to be a bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic pointing to an imminent downward correction. Forex traders may have a good opportunity today to gain from the crude oil’s impending descent by going short on this pair today. • The next resistance levels are found at the $93, $93.20 and $93.50 levels • The next support levels are $92.40, $92.05 and $91.75 levels.

USD/MXN Freefall Bottoms Out Posted: 18 Jan 2011 04:22 AM PST This pair is showing a price just beginning to ascend out of the over-sold region on the daily RSI, suggesting a momentum shift may be occurring to the latest string of downward movements. The imminent bullish crosses on the daily Stochastic (slow) oscillators also suggest that forex traders may have a great opportunity to catch a trend reversal in action. When the price swings back upward, going long with tight stops could turn out to be highly profitable. • The next resistance levels are found at the 11.9700 levels • The next support levels are 11.9300 levels.

USD/NOK Bullish Movement on the Horizon Posted: 18 Jan 2011 03:43 AM PST While the US dollar has spent the last week stuck in a bearish trend against the Norwegian krone, (the USD/NOK pair has tumbled more than 1700 pips), we are starting to see signs that an upward correction is likely to occur. Technical indicators are showing that the pair may have hit a strong support line, and that we may be in store for strong bullish movement. We will be looking at the daily chart for USD/NOK, provided by ForexYard. The technical indicators being analyzed are, the Stochastic Slow, Williams Percent Range and MACD. 1. The Stochastic Slow has formed a bullish cross right around the 15 level, and the indicator is starting to point up. This can be taken as a clear sign that the pair is due for some upward movement. 2. The Williams Percent Range has just dropped below the -80 level, which is typically the cutoff point for a pair being in oversold territory. Traders will want to pay attention to this indicator. When is starts to point up, the USD/NOK will likely begin its upward trend. 3. A bullish cross has also formed on the MACD, giving further support to our theory that the pair is likely to move up. Traders will want to take advantage of this great opportunity and open up buy positions at a great entry price.

EUR Sees Bullish Movement against Kroner Posted: 18 Jan 2011 03:35 AM PST Following the successful euro-zone debt auction last week, the EUR was able to finally break out of its downward spiral against the Scandinavian currencies. After falling more than 900 pips late last week, the EUR/SEK has since rebounded and is trading once again at around the 8.9170 level. The EUR/NOK managed to go up more than 1000 pips over the last week and is currently trading around the 7.8055 level. Despite the bullish movement the euro saw over the last week, analysts are warning traders about becoming overconfident in the currency. There are still plenty of unknowns that could sink the EU back into crisis. Both Sweden and Norway have become an alternative investment for investors who are otherwise averse to investing in the debt ridden euro-zone. As such, Scandinavian traders will want to pay close attention to any negative news in the week ahead that could potentially lead to a rebound for the kroner. Against the USD, the kroner were able to fair substantially better. This was largely due to negative US employment data which has led to a renewal of doubt in the US economic recovery. The USD/SEK has fallen more than 2300 pips in the last week, and is currently trading at the 6.6570 level. The USD/DKK has tumbled more than 2000 pips in the same amount of time, and currently stands at the 5.5640 level. This week, kroner traders will want to follow the latest US unemployment claims set to be released on Thursday. Should the figure come in below its forecasted level of 423K, a bullish reversal for both the USD/SEK and USD/DKK pairs could occur.

GBP/JPY Cross Fibonacci 76.4% Resistance Level, Aims 134.00 Posted: 18 Jan 2011 02:36 AM PST Following the better than expected end result of the British Consumer Price Index (CPI), the British pound strengthened against most of its major currency rivals. As a result, the GBP/JPY pair climbed about 70 pips within 20 minutes, and is currently trading near the 132.30 level. In addition, the Fibonacci Retracement lines suggest that the bullish movement is likely to proceed. • The chart below is the GBP/JPY 4-hour chart by ForexYard. • A very distinct bullish channel has formed on the chart, and the pair is currently trading in the midst of it. • The pair has just crossed the Fibonacci retracement 76.4% line, placed at the 132.15 level. • This indicates that the pair has potential to proceed towards the 100% line, located at the 134.20 level. • A bullish cross on the Slow Stochastic also suggests that the bullish move has more steam in it. • In addition, the Bollinger Bands appear to be tightening, suggesting that another sharp movement could be impending. • Nevertheless, traders should notice that the RSI is currently pointing down, and is about to fall below the 70-line. If the RSI will indeed cross the 70-line, it will signal that the bullish move will be replaced with a bearish correction. • The next resistance levels are located at: 132.65, 133.05, 133.40 and 134.20 • The next support levels are located at: 131.80, 131.25 and 130.90

GBP/USD Bearish Correction May Be in the Making Posted: 17 Jan 2011 11:45 PM PST In the last two weeks trading, the GBP/USD experienced much bullishness, as it stands now at 1.5950. However as I demonstrate below, it seems that the pair’s bullish run may have run of steam, and a bearish correction could be underway soon. Forex traders have the opportunity to wait for the downward breach on the hourlies and go short in order to ride out the impending wave. • Below is the daily chart of the GBP/USD currency pair. • The technical indicators that are used are the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Slow Stochastic and Williams Percent Range. • Point 1: There is a "doji" candlestick that has formed on the chart, indicating that a reversal should take place. • Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates an impending bearish cross, which may signal a downward movement is going to occur in the near future. • Point 3: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the overbought territory, signaling downward pressure. • Point 4: The Williams Percent Range has peaked at the 0 marker, which means that there may actually be a strong level of downward pressure. GBP/USD Daily Chart

Inflation Reports and ZEW Sentiment to Lead Today’s Markets Posted: 17 Jan 2011 10:30 PM PST With US markets absent from yesterday's trading due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the USD experienced mixed results against its currency rivals. The EUR appears to have continued paring last week's gains while the British pound looks stronger from this morning's consumer confidence and housing reports. The greenback should figure into today's trading, but most significant economic indicators will once more be emerging from the euro zone and Britain. Here is a roundup of today's leading events: 9:30 GMT: GBP – CPI and RPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Price Index (RPI) are both inflationary gauges for the British economy. These reports together comprise the Bank of England's (BOE) primary method of evaluating inflation targets for the purpose of adjusting monetary policies. With the relatively stagnant economy over the last few years, an indication of significant growth in inflation could help boost the GBP in this week's trading. 10:00 GMT: EUR – German and Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment The ZEW reports gauge levels of business sentiment towards the present state of the economy. It is a diffusion index based on surveys of institutional investors and analysts who are asked to rate the 6-month economic outlook. It is a leading indicator which helps forecast the state of the economy in the coming months. Both of these reports are expected to reveal an increase in economic sentiment in both Germany and the broader euro zone. If the results come in line with, or above, forecasts then the EUR could see modest strength being added in this week's trading.

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