FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog | |
- Nokia May be Poised to Reverse Gains
- Speculators Maintain Sizable EUR Short Position
- USD/SEK Breaking 2-Year Downtrend
- FX Weekly Technical Analysis – USD/CHF May Rise Back to Long Term Trend Line
- EUR/USD Technical Update
- USD/JPY Technical Update
- Weekly Technical FX Preview – Japanese Intervention Fails to Break USD/JPY Downtrend
- Q3 US GDP Could Outperform but Data may be Overlooked
- Gold Surges Following Bear Trap
- EUR/CHF Fails at Long Term Trend Line
- EUR Flow Analysis Shows Indecision amongst Speculators
| Nokia May be Poised to Reverse Gains Posted: 28 Aug 2012 03:09 AM PDT
Shares in Nokia, Finland's leading electronics manufacturer, have spiked in recent days amid the legal disputes between two of its main rivals, Apple and Samsung. While some are predicting that Nokia may be able to continue advancing in value, technical indicators are signaling that the company may be overbought and a downward correction could be forthcoming. Taking a look at the chart below, we can see that both the Williams Percent Range and Relative Strength Index have crossed into the overbought zone, while the Slow Stochastic has formed a bearish cross. Now may be a good time for traders to open short positions ahead of a possible downward correction.
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| Speculators Maintain Sizable EUR Short Position Posted: 13 Dec 2011 03:16 AM PST
The most recent CFTC IMM data shows speculators reduced their EUR bearish bets though the market’s short position remains close to levels last seen in the summer of 2010. The EUR non-commercial short position declined to 95k which is just shy of the May 2010 high of 113k. While non-commercial shorts reduced their position by over 1.5k contracts the decline in the net short position may be explained by a resurgence of EUR bulls with the non-commercial long position rising by 6.9k contracts. To put this data in perspective the cutoff date for the report was Tuesday December 6th, just prior to the ECB meeting and EU economic summit. It is also worth noting that CHF shorts have climbed to their largest position since June.
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| USD/SEK Breaking 2-Year Downtrend Posted: 25 Nov 2011 12:45 AM PST
The Swedish krona continues to weaken as the USD/SEK breaks higher above its 2-year downtrend. Barring any surprises today the USD/SEK looks poised to close on a weekly basis above the downward sloping trend line from February 2009. The pair will encounter initial resistance at the September high of 6.9915, followed by the November 2010 high of 7.0700. A break here will open the door to the 2010 August and June highs of 7.5100 and 8.1350. The broken trend line may prove to be supportive at 6.6860 followed by the October low of 6.3075.
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| FX Weekly Technical Analysis – USD/CHF May Rise Back to Long Term Trend Line Posted: 21 Nov 2011 02:06 AM PST
The USD continues to strengthen and shows little signs of slowing in this risk off environment. EUR/USD There is a bullish wedge pattern that has formed on the EUR/USD daily chart. The falling resistance line is off of the October high and the support line falls off the November 1st low. Resistance is found at 1.3615. A break here and the EUR/USD could test the November highs near 1.3850. Traders may be eyeing the October low of 1.3145 followed by a deeper move to the 2011 low of 1.2875.
GBP/USD After breaking lower from the late October-mid November consolidation pattern the GBP/USD rose back to the previous support line at 1.5850 only to turn lower once again. This is a textbook retracement to a previously known support that has now turned into resistance. Support may be found at the October 18th low of 1.5630 followed by the October low of 1.5270. Resistance comes in at the top of the previous consolidation pattern at 1.6075.
USD/JPY The slow decline of the USD/JPY back to its all-time low at 79.60 continues while the charts show very little support to prevent the move. Any attempt to bid the pair higher may encounter selling pressure at the November 15th high of 77.50 followed by the long term downtrend from the June 2007 high which comes in at 79.10.
USD/CHF The rally from the late October low continues to gain steam as the pair approaches the October high of 0.9310. Both weekly and monthly stochastics continue to move higher. A break of 0.9310 will expose the 20-month moving average at 0.9450 followed by the February high of 0.9770. Support is off of the November 3rd low of 0.8760 which coincides with the 100-day moving average. While perhaps a bit extreme the USD/CHF may eventually rise to the falling trend line off of the 2003, 2008, and 2010 highs which comes in at 1.1200.
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| Posted: 10 Nov 2011 12:05 AM PST
The EUR is down 3.5% versus the USD since Tuesday's high. This morning the EUR/USD briefly tested 1.35. The big round number is a key psychological level, but trying to pick a bottom in the latest EUR slide is like trying to catch a falling knife. A push below the 1.3500 level was brief, though it may be too early to call the EUR/USD oversold. Short term technical indicators continue to move lower and there may be more room for the pair to fall. There is only modest support on the way down to the October low of 1.3145 and the weekly chart may hold the clues. Should the 1.3500 level fail to hold, the 100-week moving average comes in at 1.3310. There is also potential support from a rising trend line off of the June 2010 and October 2011 lows which is found at 1.3290. Should the EUR/USD attempt to form a base, additional selling pressure may be seen at 1.3600. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Posted: 08 Nov 2011 11:29 PM PST
Yesterday saw the first real volatility in the USD/JPY since the MOF intervened. This morning's low coincides with a key technical level. The pair has fallen as low as 77.50, a 50% Fibonacci retracement from the 75.55/79.50 intervention rally and there may be scope for additional moves lower in the pair. A break of the 77.45 support from the mid-October highs cold have the pair testing both its 61% Fibonacci retracement at 77.07 as well as its 55-day moving average at 76.94. The bearish tone could be reversed with a move back above 78.25. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Weekly Technical FX Preview – Japanese Intervention Fails to Break USD/JPY Downtrend Posted: 31 Oct 2011 02:18 AM PDT
Another round of FX intervention has lifted the USD/JPY 400 pips for a 5.29% gain. EUR/USD An impressive run higher over the month of October took the EUR/USD as high as 1.4250, the 61% retracement from the May to October move. However, a failure of the pair to overcome this key technical mark does not bode well for the EUR in the near term. Also worth noting is the failure of the pair to move above its previously broken trend line from the June 2010 and the January 2011 lows. Falling stochastics on the daily and weekly chart also point to declines in the value EUR/USD. Support is located at 1.3915 from the October 17th high followed by 1.3650 off of the October 18th low and the October low at 1.3145. The 61% retracement level will serve as initial resistance with additional selling perhaps at 1.4450 from the trend line off of the May and July highs.
GBP/USD Cable has failed to climb above both its 200-day moving average and stopped short of its 61% Fibonacci retracement target from the April to October move which at 1.6150 should serve as initial resistance. A move higher could go on to test the 1.6450 resistance off of the August high though daily stochastics have crossed and the weekly stochastics are beginning to roll lower as well. As such, a move lower could find support at 1.5890 from the October 26th low as well as the October 18th low of 1.5630.
USD/JPY Another round of intervention has lifted the USD/JPY 400 pips for a 5.29% gain. However, the pair's sharp move higher was unable to break a key falling trend line from the 2007 high which comes in this week at 79.70. With the long term downtrend still intact a move lower may once again test the all-time lows the pair will first encounter support at 77.85 from the September high as well as 77.50 from the mid-October high. Should the intervention continue the Japanese Ministry of Finance may find willing offers waiting at 80.20 which was the peak of the last round of intervention in August.
USD/CHF The Swiss franc has once again resumed its downtrend versus the USD after moving as low as 0.8550, a level that has previously served as both support and resistance. A bounce from here could find an offer at 0.8900 from the resistance line off of the October peak. Should the downtrend from October extend into November a break of 0.8550 may have scope to 0.8240 from the August high.
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| Q3 US GDP Could Outperform but Data may be Overlooked Posted: 26 Oct 2011 08:35 AM PDT
Typically US GDP is a high impact event in the foreign exchange market though tomorrow's data may be overlooked given the tensions in Europe and the continued talk of QE3 by the Fed. Today US core durable goods orders for the month of September climbed 1.7%, handily beating consensus forecasts of 0.5%. The better than expected result combined with this past month's surprisingly positive NFP jobs report may help to shift investor expectations higher regarding tomorrow's Q3 GDP report. Consensus forecasts are for 2.4% growth but perhaps the US economy is growing at a faster pace than forecasted? Unfortunately, this data may be overshadowed by growing expectations for QE3 regardless of the growth data as unemployment levels remain elevated. This could keep pressure on the USD despite the tensions in Europe and today's USD gains. A better than expected US GDP would also be positive for the "risk on" trade. At print time the recent trend line rising from the October low remains intact with the EUR/USD failing to make a decisive break. A move below this line could find a bid at 1.3650 from where the October 18th low and the 20-day moving average converge. Cable is down more than one cent today but yesterday's current account numbers speak well for the UK economy. GBP/USD failed to move above its 100-day moving average which is just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the April to October decline but the pair has support at 1.5850 from the top of last week's consolidation pattern. A deeper move could have sterling bulls lurking at 1.5780 from the rising support line off the October 12th low. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Gold Surges Following Bear Trap Posted: 25 Oct 2011 08:36 AM PDT
The price of spot gold has received a bit of a bump the last three trading days with the commodity rising 1.6% today. Tensions in Europe could be the usual suspect for today's price increase though perhaps it is the prospect of additional monetary policy easing in the US that is driving the gains. The WSJ's front page article describes the potential collapse of the Italian government but gold prices may be moving higher on additional QE3 expectations. On Friday comments from Fed Governor Janet Yellen made no bones about the Fed's willingness to go back to the tool chest should risks to growth or price stability emerge. 'Helicopter' Ben Bernanke is well known for his position when tackling the threat of deflation in the US economy. Perhaps the events in Europe have been clouding the landscape and only now market players are turning their attention to a more strategic play in gold for an additional round of US policy easing. Gold prices recently performed a 'bear trap' when the price of spot gold fell below its rising support line from the September 28th low only to pull higher the same day and continue to advance higher to test the $1,695 level. Should the price continue to move higher there are retracement targets located at $1,725 and $1,771. Support comes in at the October low of $1,603. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| EUR/CHF Fails at Long Term Trend Line Posted: 20 Oct 2011 07:39 AM PDT
It has been a while since I've touched on the EUR/CHF as the SNB has done a good job of holding the floor at 1.20. However, today the pair has tested and failed to break above its long term falling trend line which puts the ball back in the court of the SNB to continue to weaken the CHF. Wednesday's have typically been good for the EUR/CHF as a weekly SNB meeting leads to speculation of further policy moves by the Swiss National Bank. When the end result is nothing but market rumors the Swiss franc will often strengthen on Thursdays. This is the case today with the EUR/CHF down 200 pips. With a lack of stabilization in the euro zone and a respite in the defense of the Swiss franc by the SNB, the risk is increasing for speculators to begin to test the resolve of the SNB to hold the 1.20 line in the sand. Should additional downward pressure be felt then the pair could test the supports of 1.2210 from the mid-September and October lows and the key 1.2000 level, setting up a showdown between speculators and the SNB.
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| EUR Flow Analysis Shows Indecision amongst Speculators Posted: 07 Sep 2011 05:32 AM PDT
The most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report (COT) shows speculators are indecisive on the direction of the most heavily traded currency pair the EUR/USD. The lack of direction in the futures market could be significant in identifying the next move in the pair. The most recent data from the International Monetary Market indicates speculators have maintained a small net long position in the EUR/USD as has been the case over the last 4-weeks. Speculators are net long by only 3,341 contracts while the average net position since the beginning of the year is 11,725 in favor of the EUR. At the same time open interest has fallen to 176K from a peak of 296K in June. The CFTC data highlights the reduced speculative flows in the EUR, hinting at a weakening trend. And the price action is confirming what the COT data is showing. The EUR/USD has been consolidating between 1.46 and 1.40 for the past month and is now pressing the long term trend line from the May 2010 and January lows. Combining the bearish price action with the flow analysis from the IMM data that shows a lack of conviction and we begin to paint a gloomy picture for the EUR/USD.
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