| Market Review 10.8.12 Posted: 10 Aug 2012 01:51 AM PDT 
The euro took extended yesterday's losses against the US dollar and Japanese yen in overnight trading, following disappointing German economic data yesterday and the ECB's continued inaction to lower borrowing costs in Italy and Spain. Weak euro-zone growth prospects also continued to weigh down on the price of gold, which has fallen close to $10 an ounce since last night and is currently trading just below the $1608 level. Main News for Today UK PPI Input- 08:30 GMT
• Figure is expected to come in at 1.4%, well above last month's -2.2%
• If true, risk taking could help sterling recover some of its recent losses against the dollar before markets close for the weekend Canadian Employment Change- 12:30 GMT
• The Canadian dollar has taken losses against both the USD and JPY recently
• Should today's news come in above the forecasted 9.6K, the loonie could see gains against its safe-haven currency rivals  |
| Australian Employment Figures Lift AUD Posted: 13 Oct 2011 06:50 AM PDT 
The value of the Australian dollar (AUD) made a jump in today's early trading following reports from the Australian Bureau of Statistics that employment saw modest growth in September. The Employment Change figure was forecast to see an expansion of roughly 10,100 jobs; the results were more than double. A surprise expansion of nearly 20,400 jobs in September has generated some reflections that the Aussie economy is actually regaining its foothold after a series of poor reports. The unemployment rate also decreased from 5.3% to 5.2% this month. The AUD is gaining value and could enter a longer-term uptrend if things remain bullish.  |
| EUR Set to Maintain Gains to Close Out Week Posted: 07 Apr 2011 11:05 PM PDT
Following yesterday’s widely expected euro-zone interest rate hike, the euro started today’s trading on a high note, hitting fresh highs against the US dollar and yen. With no significant news set to be released from the euro-zone or US, traders can expect the 17-nation single currency to maintain its current trend as we close out markets for the week. Today, attention will want to be given to a batch of Canadian news. The CAD has recently turned bullish against the US dollar. Whether or not it will continue this trend will likely be determined by the following news events: 11:00 GMT-Canadian Employment Change The monthly employment report is forecasted to show that Canada added around 27.8K jobs last month, a sharp increase over March’s figure. If true, traders can expect the loonie to go bullish against its main currency rivals, including the dollar and euro. 11:00 GMT- Canadian Unemployment Rate The indicator is forecasted to show that unemployment in Canada has dropped from 7.8% to 7.7%. If true, the CAD is likely to find further support and move up against its main rivals to close out the week.  |
| Non-Farm Payrolls Report to Drive Today’s FX Trading Posted: 03 Mar 2011 11:00 PM PST 
All eyes will be fixed on the US jobs report due out today. Yesterday the US dollar gained ground versus the majors with the lone exception being the euro as the ECB all but assured markets of an interest rate hike next month. The general positive tone for the dollar could carry over into today's trading should the jobs data come in better than expected. Today's data releases: GBP – Halifax HPI m/m – 08:00 GMT
Expectations: -0.6%. Previous: 0.8%.
The GBP was down yesterday following a weaker than expected services PMI. Disappointing housing data may also weigh on the pound. GBP/USD support is located at Friday's low at 1.6030 with resistance found at Wednesday's high of 1.6340. A move higher would target the November 2009 high at1.6880. USD – Non-Farm Employment Change – 13:30 GMT
Expectations: 180K. Previous: 36K.
The weekly unemployment claims report was strong, as was the ADP jobs report. However, there is typically little correlation between these jobs data and today's report. Expectations are high and may disappoint the market. Traders should look to continue bidding the euro higher against the dollar. The 1.4080 level could come into play today. CAD – Ivey PMI – 15:00 GMT
Expectations: 50.6. Previous: 36K.
The CAD has been a strong performer versus the dollar; much of which can be attributed to higher crude oil prices as well as general dollar weakness. Following a breach of the 0.9800 level, the USD/CAD should continue to move lower with only the 0.9700 support that stands in the way of the November 2007 low at 0.9050.  |
| AUD Takes Dive Following Employment Reports Posted: 12 Jan 2011 11:30 PM PST
At the start of today's economic calendar there was a severe blow to the Australian dollar. Amid the horrendous floods presently afflicting the nation, the Australian employment change report also came out well below forecasts and, despite a decrease in the unemployment rate, traders appear to have responded with a sell-off of AUD. Today's busy calendar will have forex traders highly active in the upcoming European and American sessions. Britain and the euro zone will both publish their interest rate decisions along with monetary policy statements. The US will later publish its trade balance and weekly unemployment claims reports. Here is a roundup of today's leading events: 12:00 GMT: GBP – Asset Purchase Facility and Official Bank Rate The release of the Bank of England's (BOE) latest decision regarding its short-term interest rates and its Asset Purchase Facility will no doubt have a heavy effect on the value of the GBP. Predicting the movement of the British currency following such reports is, however, highly difficult given the volatility typically experienced around this event. Traders should make sure to protect their positions today and expect sharp movements in the market. 12:45 GMT: EUR – Minimum Bid Rate Immediately following Britain's announcement regarding interest rates is the same decision and announcement on the interest rates for the euro zone. The European Central Bank (ECB), as well as the BOE, both plan to hold interest rates steady, but trading tends to become highly volatile around the publication of this event. Traders should guard their positions with conditional orders today to defend against the expected volatility. 13:30 GMT: USD – Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims The US will be publishing its recent monthly trade balance figure today alongside its weekly unemployment claims report. Given the moderate strength in the dollar lately, these two reports could help sustain those levels if they turn out better than forecast.  |
| USD/CAD in Focus for Today’s Forex Trading Posted: 08 Apr 2010 11:03 PM PDT
Going into this week’s closing there are 2 pieces of vital information traders can focus on. The first are the news releases outlined below. The second is the recent upswing by the EUR, which some analysts consider hollow. The Canadian news releases detailed below are much more important in today’s trading than they otherwise would be simply because the other major world economies will be relatively silent. The economic calendar is moderately empty today and this makes Canadian employment data the largest market-mover we’ll see. The EUR’s recent upswing, which has helped it to exit out of its downtrend with the USD, is considered hollow due to the fact that currencies such as the GBP have already pared the EUR’s gains. It stands to show that this support may not sustain itself despite the surge in optimism following Jean-Claude Trichet’s statements yesterday. Today’s leading events: 11:00 GMT: CAD – Employment Change/ Unemployment Rate - Canadian employment figures don’t tend to have a large impact on other world economies. However, there is a possibility that today’s releases will indeed have a large impact since other economies will be absent from today’s calendar. - Even though the USD/CAD’s bearish channel was broken recently, the pair seems to have re-entered this trend. Should today’s employment figures come in as expected, or better, there is a strong chance that a new bearish channel will form. Crude Oil Tips: - Given that the USD and Crude Oil are going to be absent from today’s calendar, traders are advised to watch the price of Crude Oil simply because it has little reason to exit its current trend. - While it is true that Crude Oil prices have met resistance and turned downwards recently, yesterday’s Dollar weakness has helped push oil prices back up. Since little news is going to be released which will adversely affect this trend, it is relatively safe to say that oil is a good asset to buy into for the short-term in today’s trading.  |
| Non-Farm Payrolls – Forex Trading Tips Posted: 04 Mar 2010 04:07 AM PST
The start of each new month brings with it one of the most significant economic reports: Non-Farm Employment Change, also known as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). The point here is not to inundate you with information about the NFP report which you already know. The purpose is to provide an interesting analysis about how to utilize the price movement of the EUR/USD following this release. Two approaches can be used when considering such news events. The first is the straight-forward “forecast vs. actual” results. The second approach takes outside factors, primarily the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change estimate, into consideration when viewing the results. Over the past year and a half, the early release of ADP’s Non-Farm Employment Change estimate has been strangely inaccurate due to the unpredictability of the employment market during the financial crisis and recession. However, as I’ll show in this article, we are beginning to see a return to normalcy with ADP’s predictive power, and we can use that to make some quick gains in the forex market trading the EUR/USD. I’ll start with the first approach. Friday’s NFP forecast is for an employment change of -56K, meaning 56,000 jobs are expected to have been lost in the non-farm employment sectors of the economy last month. If expectations are better, such as a reading of -10K, the USD will likely appreciate, meaning the EUR/USD will go down. This is the first approach to Friday’s release. On the other hand, the previous 2 months’ release of ADP’s Non-Farm estimate have been more inline with the actual release of the NFP report the following Friday. I’ve provided the numbers below to help explain: - January’s ADP forecast: -74K
- January’s ADP actual results: -84K
- January’s NFP forecast: -3K
- January’s NFP actual results: -85K - February’s ADP forecast: -31K
- February’s ADP actual results: -22K
- February’s NFP forecast: 10K
- February’s NFP actual results: -20K The important thing to take away from the above information is the following. January’s ADP forecast and actual results are more or less the same, and the EUR/USD’s price movement following this release was an upward movement. The actual results of the NFP report the following Friday was inline with ADP’s actual results, and the result was that the EUR/USD continued the trend established by the ADP results. In February it was the exact same. ADP’s actual results were inline with the NFP report’s actual results and the EUR/USD trend which was established by the ADP was continued, despite the NFP results being drastically different than the NFP forecast. Now, looking at this month’s expectations we can see that Wednesday’s ADP estimate is calling for an employment change of -20K, but the NFP forecast is calling for a change of -56K. This gives us two conflicting points of view. Should the NFP’s actual results come inline with Wednesday’s ADP report, it means that the actual results are better than forecast and should help the USD gain strength, meaning the EUR/USD will go down. However, Wednesday’s ADP report pushed the USD down since it was worse than expected. If the NFP report comes inline with ADP’s estimate, the USD should continue Wednesday’s trend, meaning the EUR/USD will go up. In my opinion, it appears as if the following may happen. Should Friday’s NFP report come inline with Wednesday’s ADP figures, traders will likely see a sharp jump in the strength of the Dollar – meaning the EUR/USD will drop rapidly as the better than expected results boost the greenback – but this will be followed by a correction, and the pair’s overall daily movement may actually be in an upward direction since it is likely that it will continue Wednesday’s established trend.  |
| Unemployment Tops 10%; Gold Continues to Climb Posted: 06 Nov 2009 12:20 PM PST
In a move which US President Barack Obama has called “sobering,” the American unemployment rate has topped 10%, hitting a mark of 10.2% today following a worse-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data release. While many economists are quick to claim that the global economy is returning to growth, these signals seem to push many investors in the opposite direction. Following today’s important news events, the US Dollar began to climb from a rise in risk aversion. Since the US Dollar is a traditional safe-haven investment, its post-NFP movements were bullish despite the expectation of a declining USD following negative fundamental data. Gold apparently also met with some support following today’s employment data, as it currently trades near $1,095 an ounce. Additionally, Crude Oil experienced a sharp sell-off following today’s job reports and was seen trading near the $77.50 price level towards the end of this week’s trading. Going into next week it seems safe to expect a correction to these movements as the market prices in the newest levels. Gold still appears to have some bullish room left, while the greenback will likely see some modest corrections following the bullish behavior it saw today.  |
| US Non-Farm Employment Change Tomorrow At 13:30 GMT! Posted: 05 Nov 2009 07:05 AM PST
The U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, also known as “Non-Farm Payrolls” (NFP) and the “Employment Report,” is a monthly economic indicator used to measure the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry. Each month, the Current Employment Statistics Program surveys about 150,000 businesses, representing approximately 390,000 worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, work-hours, and earnings of workers on non-farm payrolls for all 50 U.S. states. The survey is then published on the first Friday of each month. The NFP is an important leading indicator that also affects consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. Traders value the indicator with the highest importance as its early monthly release can set the tone for the rest of the month’s market movement. Investors should also note Wednesday’s 13:15 (GMT) release of Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s (ADP’s) estimate of Non-Farm Employment Change. In the past, ADP has provided an accurate assessment of what was to come from the actual NFP release two days later. With the volatility of world economies in recent months, however, ADP has not been able to correctly estimate the Non-Farm Payroll outcome, only strengthening the real power behind Friday's news release. What Results might Push the USD Up? If the actual figure will be higher than forecasted, meaning the actual job loss is higher than expected, traders are likely to see a bullish run to the USD. Currently, investors' sentiment is bearish on the USD as it appears that the U.S economy is finally coming out of recession. However, in the situation where the survey delivers worse than expected figures, such as -250K instead of the forecasted -173K, investors might be compelled to reevaluate their strategies and go long on the USD as a safe haven investment. In this turn of events, the USD will likely halt its recent bearish movement, and the EUR/USD could drop as much as 100 pips immediately following this release. What Results might Take the USD Down? Expectations for this month reveal that the Non-Farm Employment Change figures are forecasted to improve from last month’s -263K, with a release of -173K. While still a negative figure, it nonetheless indicates a relative stabilization in employment in the non-farming sector. Better than expected results, or results that come in-line with market expectations, are likely to intensify the current bearish trend on the USD as it will provide further indication for investors that the global economic environment is improving. As the USD is viewed as a safe haven currency which tends to gain in times of financial turmoil, the recent optimistic mood has been putting downward pressure on the Dollar; a sign that employment in the U.S is finally stabilizing will likely intensify the pressure, pushing up the EUR/USD pair 50-100 pips.  |
| Non-Farm Employment Change Report – Oct. 2009 Posted: 01 Oct 2009 02:54 AM PDT
The U.S Non-Farm Employment Change, also known as Non-Farm Payrolls, or NFP, is a monthly economic indicator used to measure the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry. As we are expecting the release of this enormously important indicator tomorrow at 12:30 GMT, it is necessary to know what impact it may have on the forex market. The NFP is an important leading indicator that also affects consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. Traders value the indicator with the highest importance as its early monthly release can set the tone for the rest of the month’s market movement. Investors should also note Wednesday’s 12:15 GMT release of Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s (ADP) estimate of Non-Farm Employment Change. In the past ADP has provided an accurate assessment of what was to come from the actual NFP release two days later. NFP Expectations for this Month Analysts are predicting that the NFP report will continue to show negative results, but that they are getting closer to positive figures faster than they have been in previous months. Last month’s employment change of -216,000 was one of the better readings in recent memory, and this month is expected to show a drop of only -186,000. If these figures do in fact take place, or if the numbers are even closer to 0, traders may raise their optimistic outlook and begin pulling their investments out of safe havens, such as the USD, and into riskier assets. On the other hand, if this month’s expectations were a little too optimistically forecast and the actual number is worse, such as a reading of -230,000, investors may assume that the worst is still not over and begin buying up the USD as a safety measure from the market’s volatility. If the figures come out positive, the EUR/USD’s near-term target may be upwards of 1.4800. If the NFP report comes out worse than expected, a safe EUR/USD goal could be as low as 1.4400.  |
