FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog | |
- Dollar Under Pressure Ahead of Jobless Claims
- U.S New Home Sales on Tap
- U.S Trade Balance On Tap
- Dollar Gains Before Jobless Report
- U.S Pending Home Sales on Tap
- Forex USD report: Dollar May Rise Ahead of US. Unemployment Claims
- Dollar Soars as Swedish Krona Suffers
- Loonie Weakens on Global Growth Concerns
- Euro/Dollar Rallies After Fed Statement
- US Home Sales On Tap
| Dollar Under Pressure Ahead of Jobless Claims Posted: 26 Aug 2010 05:22 AM PDT
The U.S. dollar slipped against its major rivals in trading Thursday against most major currencies as Asian and European stocks advanced, damping demand for the currency as a safe haven. The greenback however pared its recent losses against the Japanese yen on speculation that Japan could take direct steps to stem its currency’s recent rise. Against the euro, the greenback fell 0.3% to $1.2695 having slipped from a 6-week high of $1.2588 hit earlier this week. Today's highlight will be the release of initial claims for U.S. state unemployment benefits by the Labor Department at 12:30 GMT. With the U.S. Commerce Department Wednesday reporting a disappointing 0.3% rise in durable goods orders for July, indicating a cut back in spending by businesses, traders will be keen to see if Thursday’s initial claims number confirms that the U.S economic recovery has ground to a halt. Against the Japanese yen the dollar was up 0.25% at 84.77 yen after climbing as high as 84.89 yen earlier in the day. But despite recent gains in dollar/yen the currency may not rise above 85.00 yen even if data on U.S. weekly Jobless Claims come in stronger than expected, analysts said. Economists expect jobless claims for last week to increase by 488,000, compared with a 500,000 rise in the previous week. |
| Posted: 24 Aug 2010 04:19 PM PDT
Risk aversion took over the markets once again on fears of global slowdown. Yesterday was a great day for the US dollar, with EUR/USD breaking long term support of 1.2650. Very interesting news and updates coming up today. New Home Sales in the US, IFO Institute Business Climate in Germany, Construction Work Done in Australia will provide great opportunities for forex traders. Today’s leading news events: 01:30 GMT: AUD – Construction Work Done This housing sector indicator has been doing better than other ones, rising, posting neat growth rates. After the last quarter saw a weaker than expected growth rate of 1.9%, there's hope for a better growth rate this time – 3.0%. A better than expected number might take the Aussie up, back to 0.8940. 08:00 GMT: EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Germany IFO Institute Business Climate and Expectations Index is a leading indicator of economic conditions and business expectations in the Euro-zone's largest economy. This important survey of 7000 businesses has always been more positive than other indicators, yet its surprise jump from 101.8 to 106.2 last month gave a big boost to the Euro. It's expected to decrease to 105.8 now. Any result will rock the common currency. 12:30 GMT: USD – Durable Goods Orders It's a leading indicator of economic activity measuring durable goods orders placed with domestic manufacturers. The value of purchase orders of durable goods dropped in the past two months, weakening the US dollar. After a drop of 1.2% last month, orders are expected to make a sharp correction this time – 2.9% – very high expectations. As a result the greenback might break its next resistance level of 1.2500. 14:00 GMT: USD – New Home Sales New home sales are very dependent on government aid, and fail to recover on their own. The expectation is that this figure will probably rise, but only very modestly to 333K, after reaching a low level of 330K last month. Considering the weak housing starts figures, this report could have the potential to disappoint and we could see some sell pressure on the USD. |
| Posted: 10 Aug 2010 08:47 PM PDT
The U.S dollar reversed nearly all of Tuesday’s losses after the Federal Reserve said it would tweak its portfolio strategy to help spur the U.S. economic recovery. The Federal Reserve on Tuesday took a significant step to counter a weakening U.S. economic recovery, saying it would use cash from maturing mortgage bonds it holds to buy more government debt. Today’s leading news events: British Jobless Claims followed by U.S. and Canada's Trade Balance are the major market moving events today. 8:30 GMT: GBP – Claimant Count Change - The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in U.K (Claimant Count Change) has drop significantly in the past few months. The drop of almost 20.08K last month will probably be followed by another drop of 17.0K this time, in the month of July. 12:30 GMT: USD – Trade Balance / CAD – Trade Balance |
| Dollar Gains Before Jobless Report Posted: 05 Aug 2010 01:00 AM PDT
On Wednesday, the U.S dollar gained versus both the euro and Japanese yen. The dollar was approaching a 9 month low, before better than anticipated reports on private payrolls and the services industry dampened worries about the U.S. economy’s growth. The U.S. currency was at 86.20 yen from 86.27 and bought $1.3133 per euro from $1.3161. The dollar continues to edge up against the euro and British pound, while it ceded some ground to its Japanese rival Thursday, ahead of a U.S. report that economists said will show initial jobless claims fell. This in turn led to easing speculation that the Federal Reserve will introduce new stimulus measures. The U.S. initial jobless claims are forecasted to have fallen to 456,000 last week from 457,000 in the previous week, according to a preliminary survey. The actual figure is scheduled to be released at 12:30 GMT. Lately, the dollar has been driven directly by economic data, with positive U.S. news helping the greenback As such, unless monthly jobs data and consumer company results paint a more promising picture of the recovery, the greenback is unlikely to break above its key technical level of $1.31 |
| Posted: 03 Aug 2010 06:46 AM PDT
The U.S. dollar fell versus major rivals Tuesday amid concerns over the strength of the U.S. economic recovery. The greenback was trading low against the EUR and Yen on speculation a slowing U.S. economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to increase stimulus measures. The U.S. currency struggled after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday that the economy has yet to recover fully and monetary policy must remain accommodating. The USD hit a 6 month low of $1.3230, while against the Japanese yen the Dollar fell to 85.86 its weakest since November 2009. The greenback has slid over the past month after a run of disappointing U.S. data fuelled expectations that U.S. growth could lose momentum as official stimulus is withdrawn. The high point of the day ahead will be the Pending Home Sales figure. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index for July later Tuesday should stabilize after plunging in June as the deadline had passed for contracts to meet requirements in the homebuyer tax credit program. If the actual results meet the market’s expectations that will boost the U.S currency and may take it as high as 1.3150-1.3100. |
| Forex USD report: Dollar May Rise Ahead of US. Unemployment Claims Posted: 29 Jul 2010 04:03 AM PDT
The US dollar softened against the euro and yen Thursday on concerns over the US economic outlook. Analysts are now saying that the US economy appears to be losing momentum, and this slow-down has been weighing on the American currency against its counterparts; especially the euro and British pound. The greenback declined vs. the Majors yesterday as a weaker-than-expected reading on new orders for US durable goods contributed more fears about the general economic outlook. Adding to the recent rise in risk aversion, the Federal Reserve has said that overall US economic activity is still increasing, but not as robustly as desired. On the other hand, there is a chance that the US dollar may advance – after sliding 6.4% against the EUR this month – if the US economy shows signs of more modest growth. Several economists do not feel that the relative underperformance of American economic data will continue, and therefore we could see flows of investment back into the US, leading to dollar-appreciation. |
| Dollar Soars as Swedish Krona Suffers Posted: 22 Jul 2010 05:47 AM PDT
Last week's better than expected US unemployment claims results continued to strengthen the dollar versus the Swedish krona (SEK). The steady uptrend for the USD/SEK appears to be gaining momentum as the pair continues to head higher. It appears that more positive economic data in the US could lead to further advancement for the USD; therefore, we may recommend a long position in USD/SEK in the near term. After rising to 7.35, the cross will be testing the 7.481 and 7.530 levels. The chart below is the USD/SEK daily chart provided by ForexYard. The indicators used on the chart below are the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), and the Bollinger Bands. - Point 1: Looking at the RSI, we can see that the price currently floats in the over-sold territory, highlighting upward pressure. - Point 2: A buy signal that is forming on the MACD oscillator also hints at a price move higher. A bullish cross is forming, indicating the potential for upward movement in this pair. - Point 3: The pair is currently trading along the lower band, indicating that an upward correction is due to take place. Furthermore, the Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen, spreading farther apart. This typically means that a price shift is likely to take place.
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| Loonie Weakens on Global Growth Concerns Posted: 06 Jul 2010 03:07 AM PDT
The Canadian dollar (CAD) continued to depreciate against the U.S dollar (USD) as commodity prices fell on persistent concerns about a slowdown in global growth. The weak world equity and oil prices – a key barometer of global growth outlook and investor risk appetite – also helped to send the currency as low as 1.0678 vs. the USD, its weakest level since June 7. Data released last week suggested Canada's growth isn't immune to a global slowdown. The nation's economy unexpectedly stalled in April. The gross domestic product (GDP) was very disappointing – 0% growth, hurting the loonie badly. Less than three months ago, the U.S. and Canadian currencies were trading one for one, but the shift in recovery expectations and turmoil in Europe have since weighed on the Canadian dollar. On the data front, the key event will be Friday’s domestic employment figures for June, which are expected to show that 15,000 jobs were added this past month. If the results will come in line with or better than expected, we might see a change of trend. On the other hand, a disappointing figure will drive the markets into the C$1.0710 area on a technical basis. For more on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), click here. |
| Euro/Dollar Rallies After Fed Statement Posted: 23 Jun 2010 12:24 PM PDT
The EUR/USD cross climbed above $1.23 Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept short-term Interest Rates at a record low, but downgraded its outlook on the U.S. economy. The EUR was recently trading at $1.2324, while the U.S dollar weakened, reflecting traders’ concerns that low borrowing costs and shaky U.S. growth bode ill for long-term strength in the Dollar. The market’s biggest lift came after the EUR broke above $1.23, hitting an intraday high at $1.2327 about 15 minutes after the statement’s release. Meanwhile the greenback slid against its major counterparts, the GBP and Yen. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of six others, also slid 0.5%. With the U.S. unemployment rate expected to remain high and inflation low for some time, the central bank said it expects the benchmark Fed funds rate it uses to steer the economy to remain near zero for an extended period. That could mean the rate staying at a record low until next year and a continuation of a bearish sentiment for the U.S dollar. |
| Posted: 22 Jun 2010 04:27 PM PDT
Today starts with Federal Open Market Committee statement, followed by GfK German Consumer Climate in Europe. The market disregards the European troubles. In the past week, the focus was on the Spanish credit crunch. Nevertheless, the Euro continued recovering, and so did other currencies, that truly enjoy good economies, such the Canadian Dollar. American figures will dominate the scene today with New Home Sales expected to drop this month reaching 424K after the sharp rise in May's report. The U.S. Dollar continued its consolidation last week falling against all the major world currencies and down especially against the commodities dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada. Here's an outlook for the major market moving events this Wednesday. 08:00 GMT EUR Flash Services PMI Published on Wednesday, starting in France at 7:00 GMT, then in Germany at 7:30 and finally for the whole Euro-zone at 8:00 GMT. All the purchasing managers' indices have been positive for several months, with the French services sector being the strongest at 61.4. And now, all of them are expected to remain positive, above 50 which mean economic expansion. Although the Euro fell strongly in the past few weeks it is now stabilizing. Still, the European debt problems continue to loom over the single currency. But in the long term the Euro will resume falling and face more losses. In the meantime, range trading is more probable with the near-term support at $1.2220. 08:30 GMT GBP MPC Meeting Minutes It’s a detailed record of the BOE MPC’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions in U.K. In his last decision, Mervyn King made no change – he left the interest rate at the historic low of 0.5% and continued dismissing the rising inflation. We'll now get to hear if any of the 9 member voted to raise the rate. Any outcome which isn't unanimous will boost the Pound. 14:00 GMT USD New Home Sales This indicator is expected to be different this time, and drop from 504K to 435K. Note that the impact will be rather muted due to the upcoming to rate decision. Nervous trading is predicted, as the greenback may continue weakening against the yen, pound and franc. 18:15 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hold the benchmark interest rate at a record low range of zero to 0.25%. Employment is still problematic in the US, and inflation doesn't pose a threat. Yet again, the focus won't be on the Federal Funds Rate, but on the accompanying FOMC Statement. The greenback will likely to move higher after this release. A break down of 1.2220, the next major support line will open a way to 1.2160 & 1.20 in extension. |
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