FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog | |
- Weekly Commodity Outlook
- Gold Drops below $1360
- GBP/AUD Reversals in the Making
- Potential Reversal for GBP/CHF
- Major News Events Scheduled for This Week!
- CHF/JPY Likely to See Downward Reversal
- European Debt Sales Boosts Euro; Weak News Day Expected
| Posted: 17 Jan 2011 09:17 AM PST
Spot crude oil prices could build on last week's gains while silver is testing a key support level. Crude Oil Last week spot crude oil was on the rise, moving higher to $91.41 from $84.40. Strong US data releases gave traders a reason to bid the price higher. Evidence of a US economy that is picking up speed is supportive of spot crude oil buying. Friday's strong industrial production numbers highlight this environment. Wednesday's larger than expected drawdown in weekly crude oil inventories also spurred strong bids. Crude oil buying could continue this week with near term targets the high of 2011 at $92.56. Support is located at $87.25. Gold Spot gold continues to range trade, an environment that has prevailed since mid-October. Chatter continues in the media to support the rise in the price of gold. However, last week's talk of inflationary pressures in Europe by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet may have begun to set in place future assumptions of rising global interest rates. While a rate hike in the US seems unlikely until the end of the year or early 2012, any talk of higher interest rates would be seen as a negative for gold bulls. Gold prices are currently supported by a rising trend line that begins in mid-October, followed by the support line at $1,315. Silver Silver appears to be on the verge of a selling opportunity. After making a new high at $31.21, the commodity has breached below its rising trend line from late August. The price then moved higher where the previous trend line acted as a resistance level in text book fashion. Since then further losses have been booked and the price is now testing the $28 support level. A breach below this support line would set the stage for a reversal in the price of the commodity to the $26.00 level where the $38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is located from the August to January trend. Platinum This past week had platinum at a new high of $1,830 and future gains appear to be in store. A lack of divergence on the daily chart's slow stochastic oscillator supports further price increases for the commodity. Traders should be long on platinum with support at $1787 and $1,756. |
| Posted: 17 Jan 2011 05:47 AM PST
Gold prices have dropped significantly yesterday and peaked at $1359 an ounce. And now, as I demonstrate below the 8-hour chart is giving bullish signals, indicating that gold prices might go up. Forex traders can take advantage of this impending movement by having their Entry Orders in place to capture this reversal. Don't forget your Stops and Limits! • The Chart below is the 8-chart for Gold by ForexYard. • The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic, MACD and Williams Percent Range. • Point1: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bullish cross, signaling that the next move may be in an upward direction. • Point2: The Williams Percent Range signals that the price of this pair currently floats in the over-sold territory, indicating upward pressure. • Point3: There appear to be a number of bullish crosses on the MACD which signals an impending upward move. Gold 8-Hour Chart |
| GBP/AUD Reversals in the Making Posted: 17 Jan 2011 02:51 AM PST
A bullish movement of the GBP/AUD cross hasn't received much support as of late. Below, I will demonstrate that the GBP/AUD pair has already commenced a downward trend for today, as a bearish cross has taken place on the Slow Stochastic. In addition, the Relative Strength Index indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the overbought territory, signaling downward pressure, and the cross may tumble another 40-110 pips in the coming 2 days. Traders are strongly advised to take advantage of the trend at an early stage. Therefore, why not open short positions at an excellent price? The next support level is located at the 1.5970 level.
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| Potential Reversal for GBP/CHF Posted: 17 Jan 2011 02:46 AM PST
GBP/CHF sustained upward movement has finally pushed its price into the over-bought territory on the daily chart's RSI. Not only that, but there actually appears to be a bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic pointing to an imminent downward correction. Forex traders have the opportunity to wait for the downward breach on the hourlies and go short in order to ride out the impending wave. • The next resistance levels are found at the 1.5380, 1.5410 and 1.5450 levels
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| Major News Events Scheduled for This Week! Posted: 17 Jan 2011 02:28 AM PST
Following the steep bearish correction seen by the US dollar last week, investors will be keeping a close watch on a wide ranging batch of fundamental news scheduled to be released in the next few days. ForexYard traders will want to pay attention to the following news events, as they will likely dictate the direction the major currency pairs take for the rest of the week. On Tuesday, the most significant piece of news will likely be the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, scheduled to be released at 10:00 GMT. The report is a survey of leading German investors and analysts, who are asked to rate the economic outlook in Germany for the next 6-months. The survey typically generates significant amounts of volatility, and should be taken seriously. Current predictions are calling for a substantial increase in the figure from last month. If true, the euro will likely see significant gains throughout the day on Tuesday. The leading indicator on Wednesday is likely to be the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report and Press Conference, scheduled to take place at 15:30 and 16:15 GMT, respectively. The report and press conference both provide valuable insight into the current state of the Canadian economy, and the news promises to generate volatility among CAD pairs. Positive news will likely boost the loonie against the safe haven USD and JPY. Thursday will likely be volatile for USD pairs, as this week’s US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 13:30 GMT. The last few weeks have seen several disappointing employment statistics come out of the US. At the moment, analysts are predicting a sharp drop in the number of new people seeking unemployment benefits. If true, the greenback will likely see a boost. At the same time, employment figures have continuously defied analyst expectations. Traders will have to wait and see if that will be the case on Thursday. Finally, on Friday traders should pay attention to the UK Retail Sales figure, set to be released at 09:30 GMT. Last month’s figure came in below expectations, and led to a steep drop in the value of sterling. This month, analysts are predicting an even bigger drop. If the forecasts turn out to be true, the pound is likely to see a bearish close to the week. |
| CHF/JPY Likely to See Downward Reversal Posted: 17 Jan 2011 12:19 AM PST
Over the last week, the Swiss franc has steadily been making gains on its Japanese counterpart. While the market is still very much in favor of riskier assets, technical indicators are showing that the safe-haven yen may be due for a bullish run against the CHF. We will be looking at the 8-hour chart for CHF/JPY, provided by ForexYard. The technical indicators being analyzed are the Bollinger Bands, Williams Percent Range and Stochastic Slow. 1. The Bollinger Bands are currently pointing inwards. Typically, when the bands begin to tighten, it is a clear sign of an impending price shift. While the direction of the shift is not known from this indicator, there is other evidence that the correction will be bearish. 2. The Williams Percent Range is currently right above the -20 level. Generally speaking, when the indicator is at -20 or above, it is a clear sign that the pair is overbought and may see a downward correction. 3. In yet another sign of an impending downward move, the Stochastic Slow has formed a bearish cross. Traders can take this as a clear sign to open up sell positions at a great entry price before the downward breach occurs. |
| European Debt Sales Boosts Euro; Weak News Day Expected Posted: 16 Jan 2011 11:32 PM PST
Last week's most significant trend in the market was surely the bullish euro. The euro gained no less than 580 pips vs. the dollar, completing its highest weekly gain since May 2009. The euro also strengthened about 400 pips against the Japanese yen, and about 200 pips vs. the British pound. The euro’s bullish trend was mostly due to the Spanish, Italian and Portuguese debt auctions. Analysts were surprised to see the strong demand for the debt purchase, especially considering the fact that these countries are viewed as the ones most likely to eventually seek a financial bailout from the euro-zone. This has showed that the market still has a great deal of confidence in the euro-zone and in its currency. For the near future, the risk of seeing another member of the euro-zone seeking a financial bailout seems somewhat reduced. This has potential to further support the euro against the dollar. Nevertheless, investors will now pay more attention to the economic releases from Germany, which holds the largest and strongest economy in the euro-zone. If Germany will not manage to deliver positive data, the euro's bullishness could be corrected. Today, U.S. banks will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day, and a relatively weak news day is expected. The most significant economic release looks to be the Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases report, which is scheduled for 13:30 GMT. This report measures that total value of domestic stocks, bonds purchased by foreigners during November. If the end result will reach expectations for 10.42B, the CAD may be supported. |
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