Saturday, March 5, 2011

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

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Silver Breaks a New Record High and Looks to Rise Further

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 07:57 AM PST

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It was only recently that silver broke an all-time high, reaching as high as $34.95 an ounce. Silver then saw a modest bearish correction and fell towards the $34.00 level. However today, after the U.S. NonFarm Employment Change release, silver began climbing once again, and has reached a new all-time high of $35.29 an ounce. In addition, as technical analysis signals, silver's bullish trend is likely to proceed.

• The chart below is the spot-silver 4-hour chart by ForexYard.
• It can be seen that despite occasional bearish corrections, silver is seeing a bullish trend for about a month now.
• Silver recently underwent a mild technical correction, which took it as low as $34.00 an ounce.
• However, after today's positive U.S. employment data, silver began jumping once again, reaching as high as the $35.29 level.
• Currently, a bullish cross of the Slow Stochastic suggests that the bullish move has more steam in it.
• In addition, the RSI continues to point upwards, further indicating that the bullish move is likely to proceed.
• The next support levels are located at the $35.50, $5.80 and $35.80 levels.
• The next support levels are at: $34.70, $34.40 and $34.00.

silver

Weekly Summary: Feb. 28-Mar. 4

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 04:05 AM PST

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Forex traders saw extreme volatility throughout the week as several global developments impacted the market. Middle East violence, a possible euro-zone interest rate hike and continuous concerns regarding unemployment in the US have been driving the markets for the last several days.

First and foremost, the continued violence in Libya has brought the price of crude oil well above $100 a barrel. Investors continue to fear that the unrest in the Middle East will continue to spread, and may possibly affect other oil producing countries. Worries that supplies could be threatened are the main catalyst for the steep rise in prices. Analysts are warning that unless a certain degree of calm is restored to the region, the price of oil is unlikely to come down in the near future.

In addition to oil being affected by the upheaval in Libya, safe haven currencies have received a boost at the beginning of the week as investors sought out more stable assets. The Swiss franc in particular has proven to be the currency of choice for risk- averse traders. On Wednesday, the USD/CHF pair dropped well over 100 pips, reaching as low as 0.9200.

The euro dominated currency trading on Thursday. Following the news that the euro-zone’s minimum bid rate will remain at 1.00% for another month, ECB President Trichet made the announcement that interest rates may go up in April. Once the statement was made, the euro turned decidedly bullish and moved up against virtually all of its main currency rivals. The EUR/USD went as high as 1.3965, while the EUR/CHF spiked almost 170 pips to reach the 1.3017 level.

Finally, Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls figure, scheduled to be released in 2 hours’ time, is forecasted to show substantial growth in the American jobs sector. With the EUR/USD pair already approaching the 1.3400 level, a positive Non-Farm figure is likely to cause the pair to drop before markets close for the week. That being said, the Non-Farm figure is notoriously hard to predict. Should it come in below the expected 191K, the EUR/USD could break 1.3400.

USD/JPY Targets the 84.50 Level

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 03:43 AM PST

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The USD/JPY pair has been range-trading for the past ten weeks, shifting between the 81.00 and the 84.50 levels. The pair recently reached a significant support level yet failed to cross it. As a result, the USD/JPY began climbing upwards, and still looks to reach higher. As several technical indicators show, the pair has potential to reach as high as the 84.50 level.

• The chart below is the USD/JPY 1-day chart by ForexYard.
• It is clearly seen that the pair's trading was mainly characterized by ups and downs lately, without marking any real trend.
• The pair saw several failed attempts to breach through the 81.50 support level. As a result, it bounced back up and is currently trading near the 82.50 level.
• A bullish cross on the Slow Stochastic indicates that the bullish momentum has more room to go.
• The RSI has recently crossed the 30-level and is still pointing upwards. This indicates that the bullish move could proceed.
• In addition, the MACD looks to complete a bullish cross soon. If the bullish cross will indeed takes place, it could be used as further evidence that the upward movement will continue.
• The pair's next resistance levels are located at the: 82.85, 83.50, 84.00 and the 84.50 level.
• The pair's next support levels are at: 82.30, 81.50 and 80.90.

USD JPY

EUR/JPY May Turn Bearish

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 02:45 AM PST

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A bullish movement in EUR/JPY has pushed a number of technical indicators into the over-bought territory. As I will demonstrate below, the EUR/JPY may very well be heading for a reversal, as a bearish cross has taken place on the Slow Stochastic. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the overbought territory, signaling downward pressure. Forex traders can take advantage of this impending movement by having their Entry Orders in place to capture this reversal. Don't forget your Stops and Limits!

EUR-JPY 4-3-2011

EUR/GBP Set for Bearish Correction

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 12:06 AM PST

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The volatile of the EUR/GBP pair continues to be affected by the volatile forex market. The last two days has seen a lot of bullish strength in the EUR/GBP pair. However, as I demonstrated below, it seems that the pair's bullish run may have run out of steam, and a bearish correction could be underway soon. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage and at a great entry price.

• The technical indicators that are used are the William Percent Range, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Slow Stochastic.

• Point 1: There is a "doji" candlestick that has formed on the chart, indicating that a reversal should take place.

• Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction.

• Point 3: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the overbought territory, signaling downward pressure.

• Point 4: The Williams Percent Ranges is showing that this pair is heavily over-bought and may be experiencing strong downward pressure.

EUR/GBP 4-Hour Chart
EUR-USD 4-2-2011

Non-Farm Payrolls Report to Drive Today’s FX Trading

Posted: 03 Mar 2011 11:00 PM PST

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All eyes will be fixed on the US jobs report due out today.

Yesterday the US dollar gained ground versus the majors with the lone exception being the euro as the ECB all but assured markets of an interest rate hike next month. The general positive tone for the dollar could carry over into today's trading should the jobs data come in better than expected.

Today's data releases:

GBP – Halifax HPI m/m – 08:00 GMT
Expectations: -0.6%. Previous: 0.8%.
The GBP was down yesterday following a weaker than expected services PMI. Disappointing housing data may also weigh on the pound. GBP/USD support is located at Friday's low at 1.6030 with resistance found at Wednesday's high of 1.6340. A move higher would target the November 2009 high at1.6880.

USD – Non-Farm Employment Change – 13:30 GMT
Expectations: 180K. Previous: 36K.
The weekly unemployment claims report was strong, as was the ADP jobs report. However, there is typically little correlation between these jobs data and today's report. Expectations are high and may disappoint the market. Traders should look to continue bidding the euro higher against the dollar. The 1.4080 level could come into play today.

CAD – Ivey PMI – 15:00 GMT
Expectations: 50.6. Previous: 36K.
The CAD has been a strong performer versus the dollar; much of which can be attributed to higher crude oil prices as well as general dollar weakness. Following a breach of the 0.9800 level, the USD/CAD should continue to move lower with only the 0.9700 support that stands in the way of the November 2007 low at 0.9050.
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