Friday, July 29, 2011

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

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Is Job Growth in Germany Decelerating?

Posted: 28 Jul 2011 06:41 AM PDT

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The speed of job creation in Germany, as indicated by this morning's unemployment change report, appears to be in deceleration. The German economy has seen positive change in unemployment since June 2009, but today's slow-down pushes the jobs sector closer to contraction.

Does this mean Germany's employment sector is in peril? Not at all. This data serves as a lagging indicator on the employment sector since it is released 30 days after the month ends, and it tends to be leaked prior to official publication, making the impact of its release somewhat murky. Germany's rate of unemployment shrinkage is one sign of optimism in the euro zone's largest economy, today's numbers merely suggest sluggishness is beginning to creep in.

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US Unemployment Claims Better than Forecast

Posted: 28 Jul 2011 06:35 AM PDT

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Data released by the US Department of Labor this afternoon revealed a slowing in unemployment growth for the final week of July. Seeing a rise of 398,000 new claims for first-time unemployment benefits does not sound optimistic, but it is the lowest increase seen in the weekly report since the third week of April.

Forecasts were expecting a rise of 413,000 new claims, making this better-than-forecast report a sign of market optimism. Weekly data has the tendency to shift dramatically, meaning this week's report could be an outlier in the macro data, but it is no less beneficial for short-term traders.

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Japanese Retail Sales See 1.1% Growth

Posted: 28 Jul 2011 06:23 AM PDT

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The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) published its latest findings on the island economy's change in retail sales since last month, presented in annualized format. The data revealed retail sales in Japan growing 1.1%, year-on-year, beating expectations for a 0.6% contraction.

The rise in consumer spending in Japan has been spurned by the steady strengthening felt in the value of the Japanese yen (JPY) versus its currency counterparts. Japanese citizens are carrying more buying power which has helped fuel their recovery from the damage wrought by the spring tsunami.

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EUR/USD Can’t Hold Above 1.45

Posted: 28 Jul 2011 05:31 AM PDT

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For the second day in a row the US dollar is stronger as the weakness seen in US equities yesterday has carried over into the European trading session. US law makers are no closer to a solution to raise the debt ceiling than they were yesterday and this is reflected in both the value of the EUR/USD and in global equities.

Falling in-line with the S&P's 2.0% decline yesterday European equities are lower across the board with the DAX down 1.75% and the FTSE lower by 0.75%. A lack of deal to avert a US default continues to weigh on market sentiment combined with yesterday's weak core durable goods orders has hit equities particularly hard.

In the foreign exchange markets the dollar has surprisingly benefited from this environment while gains in the JPY and CHF have been mute. In all fairness the USD/CHF did fall below 0.800 before moving slightly higher. The euro is down versus the dollar but noticeably lower in the crosses. This is despite Spain reporting a 19% reduction of the government's budget deficit and declining German unemployment, albeit at a slower than expected.

While the media headlines point to the US debt negotiations as the market mover the inability of the EUR/USD to hold above the 1.45 level is telling. At 1.4270 the pair has made a 38% retracement of the move from July 12th to yesterday's high. The next retracement target is found at 1.4100 with support just below at 1.4070. Resistance is at 1.4320 and yesterday's high of 1.4540. In the crosses the EUR/JPY has broken lower from a bearish flag pattern and has support at 110.60 followed by 109.55. A move higher could find its way to 112.75 without jeopardizing the bearish chart pattern.

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