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| Crawling Towards the EU Economic Summit Posted: 06 Dec 2011 04:57 AM PST
The news stream over the past 24 hours has been EUR negative with the exception of German industrial orders from October. Yet the EUR has begun to crawl back above the 1.34 level before the strong German data. As I was writing the latest entry for the FOREXYARD forex blog German industrial orders were released and the data simply blew away the consensus forecasts. The October numbers rose 5.2% m/m on expectations of an increase of only 0.9%. The September numbers were revised lower to -4.6% m/m from -4.3% but this did not deter EUR bids. The data underlines comments from German Economics Minister Philip Roesler whom Dow Jones quoted as saying, "Germany is the stability anchor in Europe…Germany is not concerned by short-term decisions of one ratings agency." This morning's statement that the Bundesbank and the US will not support IMF contributions to the EFSF added to the negative sentiment from yesterday's move by S&P to put 15 euro zone nations on negative credit watch. The announcement by S&P came on the heels of press conference with Merkel and Sarkozy to implement additional oversight and penalties on those nations who violate EU budget parameters. These issues will be debated at the two day EU economic summit in Brussels which is set to begin on Thursday. Despite the news of the past 24 hours being mostly EUR negative the EUR/USD has climbed as high as 1.3425. One reason for this may be market positioning. The most recent CFCT IMM data shows EUR non-commercials have their largest short position built in the futures market since June of last year. The one sided positioning could create a short squeeze if European leaders begin to instill a bit of investor confidence towards the end of the week. EUR/USD resistance is found at yesterday's high of 1.3490 and at Friday's high of 1.3550. Support looks to be at the November 30th low of 1.3260.
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| Posted: 06 Dec 2011 12:38 AM PST
A report this morning that the German Bundesbank won't support using additional IMF funds for a European bailout added to the EUR's woes a day after S&P placed 15 euro zone nations on a negative ratings watch. S&P did not spare the AAA countries as six of the countries placed on negative credit watch hold the top rating including Germany and France. These nations could face a downgrade within the next 3-months. The report comes on the heels of the negotiations between Merkel and Sarkozy which look to have made some progress going into this week's euro zone summit. The EUR/USD has support at last Friday's post NFP low of 1.3260. Swiss CPI will be released this morning and a contraction in the inflation rate may have traders attempting to get out in front of any future move by the SNB to weaken the CHF. Any gains in the EUR/CHF will likely be capped by the 1.25 level. In the North American trading session we'll get an interest rate decision from the BoC which is expected to hold rates steady. The USD/CAD could test the rising trend line from the July and October lows at 1.0090 followed 0.9890 at the October low. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
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