FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

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• Scandinavia Quiet ahead of Swedish Rate Announcement
• USD May See Bullish Reversal Against NOK
• Rising Oil Prices Help NOK against Main Rivals
• Euro Sees Bullish Week against SEK and NOK
• NOK Lower as Crude Oil Prices Plummet
• USD/NOK Bullish Movement on the Horizon
• EUR Sees Bullish Movement against Kroner
• Kroner Remains Bearish Against USD
• Dollar May See Boost against NOK
• Positive Data Causes the Kroner to Move Up against Dollar
• USD/NOK Due For Bullish Reversal

Scandinavia Quiet ahead of Swedish Rate Announcement Posted: 19 Apr 2011 08:10 AM PDT The Scandinavian currencies have been trading mildly within the same trends which they possessed over the past week or more. The Swedish krona is still gaining on statements by the central government that it would raise taxes next year, continue to hike interest rates, and take measures to insure against detrimental risk taking; this has helped SEK remain bullish. However, it has been a quiet week for the economies of Scandinavia since last Tuesday. Sweden's announcement of these measures has been followed by zero significant news events out of the region. A variety of reports have attempted to analyze the correlation between surging oil prices and the value of the Norwegian krone (NOK), but Norway's relative strength in general may also be behind NOK's current bullish posture. Euro zone debt concerns have flared up and the change in risk appetite and outlook have begun to gouge SEK and NOK values, with both undergoing a dip in yesterday's trading following news that Greece may need debt restructuring. The downgrade of US long-term debt outlook by S&P's ratings agency is also fueling many of today's portfolio adjustments. The Swedish Riksbank is expected to release its interest rate decision tomorrow and traders will likely want to track what statements are released following the publication of their decision. Sweden, it should be recalled, has been proclaiming rather hawkish statements for some time now and most analysts are forecasting another 25 basis point increase in Sweden's short-term lending rates. This would move their national interest rate to 1.75%. Short of anything overly pessimistic arising out of the region, Sweden's krona should maintain its bullishness in the days ahead and traders will likely have the opportunity to gain big in tomorrow's trading if the Riksbank publishes another hawkish report.

USD May See Bullish Reversal Against NOK Posted: 06 Apr 2011 12:08 AM PDT After tumbling throughout the last week, technical indicators are now showing that the USD/NOK may be due for an upward correction. As we will see, now may be a good time for traders to open long positions for some potentially significant profits. • Below is the daily chart of the USD/NOK currency pair, provided by Forexyard. • The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic and Williams Percent Range. • Point 1: There is a "doji" candlestick that has formed on the chart, indicating that a reversal could take place in the near future. • Point 2: The Slow Stochastic has recently formed a bullish cross, signaling that the next move may be in the upward direction. • Point 3: The Williams Percent Range signals that the price of this pair is currently floating in the over-sold territory, indicating that upward pressure exists.

Rising Oil Prices Help NOK against Main Rivals Posted: 05 Apr 2011 11:45 PM PDT The Norwegian krone had a very profitable week, as rising oil prices helped support the Scandinavian currency against its main currency rivals. Continued rumors of a Norwegian interest rate hike also helped support the currency. Against the US dollar, the krone has gone up well over 800 pips in the last week. Currently the USD/NOK is trading at 5.4550. The NOK faired even better against the euro, gaining close to 900 pips in the same amount of time. The EUR/NOK currently stands at 7.7815. The Swedish krona saw more mixed results over the past seven days. A strong US jobs report last week helped boost the USD/SEK close to 700 pips before the pair staged a reversal yesterday and dropped to its current level of 6.3090. Meanwhile, an anticipated euro-zone interest rate hike has helped the euro gain close to 700 pips against the krona since last week. Turning to the week ahead, the ongoing conflict in Libya is likely to keep the price of oil high, which could help the NOK. The SEK is likely to face a tougher time, as the anticipated hike in euro-zone interest rates is likely to send the krona plummeting against the euro. Traders will want to also pay attention to the main US economic indicators. Any positive American news will likely help the dollar against the Scandinavian currencies.

Euro Sees Bullish Week against SEK and NOK Posted: 29 Mar 2011 04:54 AM PDT The last week saw the euro make fairly significant gains against the SEK, while it slowed down its recent bullish trend against the NOK. This was largely due to the likelihood that the euro-zone will raise interest rates next month. The prospect of a euro-zone interest rate hike seems to be overshadowing the recent renewal in sovereign debt worries that has plagued the region as of late and has caused investors to flock back to the 17-nation single currency. Over the last week, the EUR/SEK pair has shot up close to 1200 pips, and is currently trading around the 8.9735 level. The heavy bullish behavior the EUR/NOK saw at the beginning of the month seems to have tapered off, and the pair was only able to gain about 200 pips over the last seven days. Currently the pair is trading at 7.8930. Against the US dollar the Scandinavian currencies have been fairly steady since last week. Analysts attribute the inactivity to a lack of significant US economic news as of late. This is all likely to change starting tomorrow when the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figure is released. The figure is one of the more significant US indicators, and is considered an accurate predictor of Friday’s all important Non-Farms payrolls figure. At the moment, analysts are predicting a slight decline in the number of jobs added in the US since last month. If true, the Scandinavian currencies could capitalize on the news and see some short term gains against the dollar in the next few days. Against the euro, traders will want to pay attention to news regarding any future increase in interest rates. Confirmation of a rate hike is likely to lead to bearish week for the kroner.

NOK Lower as Crude Oil Prices Plummet Posted: 08 Feb 2011 04:43 AM PST Amid the mixed results of the US dollar against most of its currency rivals, the Scandinavian kroner have actually given up ground versus their American currency counterpart. Plummeting Crude Oil prices have gouged the value of the Norwegian krone (NOK) pushing the USD/NOK from 5.68 on Feb. 1st towards 5.80 yesterday before meeting resistance and settling near 5.76 in today's early European trading hours. Feeding into the NOK's price slump was a depressed reading from the Norwegian manufacturing sector which shrank 1.0% in December. Average forecasts had Norway's manufacturing sector experiencing approximately 0.5% growth. The worse-than-expected data weighed on the krone these last few days. Sweden's krona (SEK) has fared somewhat better against the US dollar, but its recent appreciation has begun to cut into Swedish corporate profits. TeliaSonera (TLSN), as one example, reported earning losses due to the strengthening SEK, and many analysts have begun to forecast a decline in corporate revenue in 2011 due to the krona's recent record highs. Overall, the Scandinavian currencies fell weak against the USD these past several trading days, as did most of the other global currencies. Sweden and Denmark were able to begin paring those losses as of yesterday's trading due to the respective power of their economies. Norway, on the other hand, has fared worse due to the falling price of Crude Oil. The SEK and DKK should continue to pare last week's late losses, but the NOK appears poised to continue losing alongside the movement of oil prices.

USD/NOK Bullish Movement on the Horizon Posted: 18 Jan 2011 03:43 AM PST While the US dollar has spent the last week stuck in a bearish trend against the Norwegian krone, (the USD/NOK pair has tumbled more than 1700 pips), we are starting to see signs that an upward correction is likely to occur. Technical indicators are showing that the pair may have hit a strong support line, and that we may be in store for strong bullish movement. We will be looking at the daily chart for USD/NOK, provided by ForexYard. The technical indicators being analyzed are, the Stochastic Slow, Williams Percent Range and MACD. 1. The Stochastic Slow has formed a bullish cross right around the 15 level, and the indicator is starting to point up. This can be taken as a clear sign that the pair is due for some upward movement. 2. The Williams Percent Range has just dropped below the -80 level, which is typically the cutoff point for a pair being in oversold territory. Traders will want to pay attention to this indicator. When is starts to point up, the USD/NOK will likely begin its upward trend. 3. A bullish cross has also formed on the MACD, giving further support to our theory that the pair is likely to move up. Traders will want to take advantage of this great opportunity and open up buy positions at a great entry price.

EUR Sees Bullish Movement against Kroner Posted: 18 Jan 2011 03:35 AM PST Following the successful euro-zone debt auction last week, the EUR was able to finally break out of its downward spiral against the Scandinavian currencies. After falling more than 900 pips late last week, the EUR/SEK has since rebounded and is trading once again at around the 8.9170 level. The EUR/NOK managed to go up more than 1000 pips over the last week and is currently trading around the 7.8055 level. Despite the bullish movement the euro saw over the last week, analysts are warning traders about becoming overconfident in the currency. There are still plenty of unknowns that could sink the EU back into crisis. Both Sweden and Norway have become an alternative investment for investors who are otherwise averse to investing in the debt ridden euro-zone. As such, Scandinavian traders will want to pay close attention to any negative news in the week ahead that could potentially lead to a rebound for the kroner. Against the USD, the kroner were able to fair substantially better. This was largely due to negative US employment data which has led to a renewal of doubt in the US economic recovery. The USD/SEK has fallen more than 2300 pips in the last week, and is currently trading at the 6.6570 level. The USD/DKK has tumbled more than 2000 pips in the same amount of time, and currently stands at the 5.5640 level. This week, kroner traders will want to follow the latest US unemployment claims set to be released on Thursday. Should the figure come in below its forecasted level of 423K, a bullish reversal for both the USD/SEK and USD/DKK pairs could occur.

Kroner Remains Bearish Against USD Posted: 11 Jan 2011 03:30 AM PST 2011 has seen a series of positive fundamental indicators out of the US that have boosted the greenback against most of its main currency rivals, including the Scandinavian kroner. As the employment and manufacturing sectors in the United States have steadily been improving, confidence in the dollar has rebounded. In the last week alone, the USD/DKK has gone up more than 2000 pips, while the USD/NOK and USD/SEK have both increased close to 1900 pips. Against the euro, the kroner have had significantly better luck. Renewed euro-zone debt worries, this time out of Portugal, have caused the 17-nation common currency to tumble over the last week. Investor concerns with the euro-zone combined with the generally positive data out of the US have led to a fairly bleak picture for the euro. Both the Norwegian and Swedish currencies have capitalized on the euro-zone debt issues, and have gone up around 1000 pips against the troubled currency in the last week. Turning to the rest of the week, traders will want to pay attention to the main publications out of the US, including the latest Unemployment Claims figure and Retail Sales report. Early forecasts are calling for slight improvements in both indicators. If the predictions are true, traders can expect the kroner to maintain its current bearish trend against the US currency. With regards to the euro, kroner traders will want to keep up with the latest news regarding Portugal and any possible bailout if may receive. Any positive news out of the euro-zone is likely to be to the detriment of the kroner.

Dollar May See Boost against NOK Posted: 04 Jan 2011 03:18 AM PST Since early last week, the US dollar has been steadily dropping against its Norwegian counterpart. The USD/NOK pair has fallen close to 1300 pips since the 27th of December, largely due to the low volatility that existed in the marketplace around the Christmas holiday. It now appears that the pair may be due for a reversal, with technical indicators showing an impending bullish move is likely to occur. We will be analyzing the daily chart for the USD/NOK pair, provided by Forexyard. We will be looking at the Stochastic Slow, Williams Percent Range and Relative Strength Index (RSI). 1. As we can see, the Stochastic Slow has formed a bullish cross. This is typically a solid sign that the pair is in oversold territory, and an upward correction is likely to take place. 2. When analyzing the Williams Percent Range, we typically view the -80 and -20 levels as the borders for the instrument being in oversold and overbought territory, respectively. As we can see, the indicator is just below the -80 level, meaning the USD/NOK is likely oversold and may see bullish movement. 3. The RSI is currently right on the border of being in the oversold region. Traders will want to keep a close eye on this indicator. When it crosses the bottom support line, upward movement will likely follow.

Positive Data Causes the Kroner to Move Up against Dollar Posted: 04 Jan 2011 03:14 AM PST As we start off the new year, we see that the Scandinavian kroner continues to make gains against the US dollar as positive fundamental indicators have boosted confidence in the global economic recovery. While the Scandinavian currencies have also moved up vs. the euro, the gains have been slightly more muted due to the 16-nation currency’s appeal to risk taking investors. Positive US employment data released last week has actually weakened the dollar against the kroner, as investors abandoned the safe haven greenback. The last week has seen the USD/NOK and USD/DKK pairs fall close to 1300 pips. Meanwhile, the USD/SEK has tumbled some 1500 pips. Against the euro, none of the Scandinavian currencies have managed to gain more than 500 pips over the last seven days. This week, traders can anticipate heavy volatility among the Scandinavian pairs ahead of the release of this month’s US Non-Farm Payrolls figure. The Non-Farm indicator is widely considered the most significant economic event of the month, and heavy market activity is expected. Should the payrolls number come in above analyst predictions, traders can expect the kroner to extend its bullish trend against the dollar. At the same time, a positive Non-Farm’s figure is likely to increase demand for the euro, causing the kroner to drop against its euro-zone counterpart.

USD/NOK Due For Bullish Reversal Posted: 28 Dec 2010 03:30 AM PST Over the last week, the USD/NOK has experienced a substantial bearish trend. While the pair has fallen over 1000 pips in that time, technical indicators are now showing that an upward correction may occur in the very near future. For our analysis today, we will be looking at the 8-hour USD/NOK chart, provided by Forexyard. The technical indicators being examined are the Bollinger Bands, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Williams Percent Range. 1. The Bollinger Bands have begun widening, while the latest candle stick is currently below the lower band. These are both signs that a bullish correction will likely take place. 2. The Relative Strength Index is currently right around 30. Typically, the pair is considered oversold when this indicator is at 30 or below. Traders can take this as a sign that upward movement is imminent. 3. The Williams Percent Range is currently at -90. When this indicator drops below -80, the pair usually sees a bullish reversal. This further supports our original theory. Traders will want to enter into buy positions for this pair before the upward breach.

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