Friday, May 18, 2012

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

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Manufacturing Data Could Result in Dollar Gains Tomorrow

Posted: 16 May 2012 12:21 PM PDT

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The dollar was able to benefit yet again from risk aversion in the marketplace today, as worries about the Greek political situation caused investors to abandon higher yielding assets. The EUR/USD dropped to a fresh four-month low during the morning session, reaching 1.2679 before staging an upward correction. The pair eventually peaked at 1.2758. The greenback also saw gains against the Australian dollar. The AUD/USD fell as low as 0.9868 before moving upward during mid-day trading.

Turning to tomorrow, dollar traders will want to pay attention to the US Unemployment Claims figure at 12:30 GMT, followed by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 14:00. Despite a lack of overall growth in the US labor market in recent months, the number of people claiming unemployment insurance in the US has remained relatively steady. Should tomorrow’s news come in below the forecasted 368K, the greenback could see gains vs. its main rivals. With regards to the manufacturing index, analysts are predicting the news to come in at 10.3, well above last month's figure. If true, the USD/JPY could turn bullish as a result.

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Market Review 15.5.12

Posted: 15 May 2012 03:15 AM PDT

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The euro dropped to a fresh four-month low in overnight trading as investors remain concerned about Greece's prospects for staying in the euro-zone. The US dollar saw a slight upward correction against the yen, but was unable to advance above 80.00.

Main News for Today

German ZEW Economic Sentiment-09:00 GMT
• Forecasted to come in at 19.1, slightly below last month's figure
• If it comes in at or above expectations, the euro could see temporary gains against USD, JPY
US Core CPI, Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales-12:30 GMT
• Investors will be closely watching all three of these indicators
• If they come in below expected levels, it will likely raise fears that the Fed will initiate a new round of quantitative easing which could result in heavy dollar losses against yen
• Any better than expected results could help the dollar recoup losses against JPY

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Market Review 14.5.12

Posted: 14 May 2012 02:45 AM PDT

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The euro fell to a four-month low against the USD in overnight trading following news that Greek politicians have once again failed to form a new government. Investors are concerned about the possibility of Greece exiting the euro-zone. Risk aversion in the marketplace also caused the AUD/USD to drop below 1.0000 in morning trading.

Main News for Today

EUR Industrial Production 09:00 GMT
• Forecasted to come in below last month's figure
• The news could result in further losses for the euro against the USD and JPY
Italian 10-Year Bond Auction
• No definitive time set for the bond auction
• Should demand for Italian bonds be low, the euro is likely to drop further as a result

Market Review 11.05.12

Posted: 11 May 2012 01:05 AM PDT

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The euro fell to a fresh 3 ½ month low against the US dollar in overnight trading as political uncertainty in Greece continues to weigh down on the common currency. In addition, crude oil reversed its gains from yesterday afternoon and is once again trading below $96 a barrel.

Main News for Today

UK PPI Input- 08:30 GMT
• Analysts are predicting that the figure will come in at -0.9%, well below last month's 1.9%
• If true, the pound could extend its losses from last night against the USD and JPY

US PPI- 12:30 GMT
• The US PPI is forecasted to come in at 0.0%
• A better than expected figure could help the USD recover some of its losses vs. the JPY
• Positive figure could also lead to gains for crude oil

US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment- 13:55 GMT
• Consumer sentiment figure forecasted to come in at 76.4
• A better than expected figure could help the USD against JPY and give commodities like crude oil a boost to close out the week

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Market Review 10.5.12

Posted: 10 May 2012 02:10 AM PDT

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The euro remained near a three-month low against the US dollar and JPY in overnight trading as investors await news regarding a possible new Greek election in the next few weeks.

Main News for Today

UK Manufacturing Production- 08:30 GMT
• Forecasted to come in at 0.5%, well above last month's -1.0%
• If true, the GBP may see gains vs. safe-haven currencies

UK Official Bank Rate/MPC Rate Statement- 11:00 GMT
• MPC isn't expected to adjust British interest rates
• The MPC Statement could offer clues as to a possible new round of quantitative easing
• Any mention of quantitative easing could turn the pound bearish

US Trade Balance- 12:30 GMT
• Analysts are predicting the US trade deficit grew to -49.8B
• If true, the dollar may see additional losses against the JPY

US Unemployment Claims
• Unemployment Claims forecasted to have increased to 371K
• Anything above 371K could result in dollar losses during afternoon trading

US Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks- 13:30 GMT
• Following last week's disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls figure, investors will be closely watching today's speech
• Any mention of a new round of quantitative easing in the US could result in heavy dollar losses against the yen

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Market Review 9.5.12

Posted: 09 May 2012 01:38 AM PDT

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Riskier currencies and commodities fell once again during Asian trading, as investors continue to react to Greek and French elections held last weekend. The EUR/USD dropped as low as 1.2964, close to a three-month low. Crude oil fell to $96.26 a barrel.

Main News for Today

US Crude Oil Inventories- 14:30 GMT
• Crude oil stockpiles have increased dramatically in recent weeks, signaling decreased demand in the world's biggest oil consuming country
• Should today's figure come in above the forecasted 2.0M, the price of oil could fall further during the afternoon session

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Market Review 8.5.12

Posted: 08 May 2012 01:12 AM PDT

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The EUR/USD and USD/JPY once again turned bearish during overnight trading as uncertainty regarding Greece's new parliament led to additional risk aversion in the marketplace. Commodities and precious metals were also down during the Asian session. Crude has fallen to the $97 a barrel level, while gold dropped over $6 an ounce.

Main News for Today

EUR German Industrial Production- 10:00 GMT
• Forecasted to come in at 0.8%, well above last month's -1.3%
• If true, may lead to moderate risk taking in the marketplace which could help euro

EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks- 12:30 GMT
• Any mention of French and Greek elections and their potential impact on the euro-zone recovery could lead to volatility for euro

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Market Review 7.5.12

Posted: 07 May 2012 12:21 AM PDT

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The euro sank to a three-month low against the US dollar during overnight trading as investors continue to digest the results of yesterday's elections in France and Greece. Crude oil extended its bearish trend as well, dropping over $2 a barrel during Asian trading.

Main News for Today

EUR Sentix Investor Confidence- 08:30 GMT
o Level of investor confidence is forecasted to have dropped since last month
o A final result of below -15.3 may lead to additional losses for the euro

EUR German Factory Orders- 10:00 GMT
o Factory orders in Germany forecasted to have gone up since last month
o A final result of over 0.5% could give the euro a temporary boost

CAD Building Permits- 12:30 GMT
o USD saw major gains against CAD due to risk aversion in the marketplace
o With today's news forecasted to come in well below last month's, the loonie's bearish trend may continue
o A final result of below -0.5% could lead to additional losses for CAD

Political Uncertainty May Weigh Down on EUR

Posted: 04 May 2012 03:34 AM PDT

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The euro took mild losses against its main currency rivals ahead of today’s highly significant US Non-Farm Payrolls report. The EUR/USD fell over 20 pips to 1.3125 during morning trading, while the EUR/JPY dropped as low as 105.20.

The euro may be able to reverse its bearish trend before markets close for the week if today’s Non-Farm statistic comes in below the expected 170K. That being said, analysts are quick to warn that with elections in France and Greece this weekend, any gains the common currency makes could be temporary. Opposition parties are expected to take power in both countries, which may lead to a conflict with other euro-zone countries regarding recent austerity measures in the region.

Traders will want to pay attention to the results of the elections, which are scheduled to be released before markets open on Sunday night. Should any signs of a disagreement between either France or Greece and other euro-zone countries come about, the euro could start off next week’s session on a bearish note.

Market Review 4.5.12

Posted: 04 May 2012 01:09 AM PDT

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The US dollar saw very little movement during overnight trading as investors eagerly anticipate the outcome of today's US Non-Farm Payrolls figure. Crude oil continued to fall during the Asian session, as poor fundamental indicators out of the euro-zone and an increase in US stockpiles weighed down on the commodity.

Main News for Today

US Non-Farm Employment Change-12:30 GMT

o Largely considered the most important indicator on the forex calendar
o Analysts are forecasting today's news to come in at 170K
o Should the news come in below expectations, the dollar could see losses against the yen before markets close for the week

Next Week

Euro-Zone Elections 6.5.12

o Elections in both Greece and France are forecasted to generate volatility in the marketplace
o Opposition leader is forecasted to win in France, which could result in losses for the euro during next week's trading

Market Review 3.5.12

Posted: 03 May 2012 12:53 AM PDT

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The euro continued to slide during overnight trading, following negative euro-zone news released yesterday. The EUR/USD dropped as low as 1.3133, while the EUR/JPY fell to 105.30.

Main News for Today

ECB Press Conference-12:30 GMT
o Any pessimistic signs from the ECB regarding the euro-zone economic recovery could result in the euro falling further vs. the USD and JPY
Spanish Debt Auction
o This will be the first Spanish debt auction since Spain's credit rating was downgraded last week
o Should the results of the auction disappoint investors, the euro could see additional losses
US Unemployment Claims- 12:30 GMT
o Following yesterday's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, investors will be watching this figure for additional clues as to the current state of the US employment sector
o A disappointing result could lead to losses for the USD vs. safe-haven currencies like the JPY and CHF
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI-14:00 GMT
o The US Manufacturing PMI released earlier this week came in better than expected and resulted in significant gains for the USD
o Should today's news come in above the forecasted 55.5, the dollar could move up vs. its main currency rivals

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