FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog | |
- Central Banks and US Data Boost Risk Appetite
- Month End Trading Day Could be USD Positive
- USD/SEK Breaking 2-Year Downtrend
- Fed Meeting Minutes to Show Dovish Policy Stance
- USD is Bid to Begin this Week’s FX Trading
- FX Weekly Technical Analysis – USD/CHF May Rise Back to Long Term Trend Line
- USD/JPY Breaking Below Support
- US and Canadian Data Eyed but Events in Europe Dominate
- USD/JPY Technical Update
- USD up on Risk Aversion, European Equities Crushed
- USD is Bid in Risk Off Day
| Central Banks and US Data Boost Risk Appetite Posted: 01 Dec 2011 01:13 AM PST
Today's data releases from the UK and the US may help higher yielding assets receive a bid following yesterday's coordinated central bank move and a reduced Chinese reserve requirement. This morning we'll get UK manufacturing PMI which is forecasted to fall to 47.1 from 47.4. Sterling has been bid the past 3-days versus the USD and the GBP/USD may find initial resistance at yesterday's high of 1.5780, followed by the November 18th high of 1.5890. Support comes in at the November low of 1.5420. Building on yesterday's positive ADP jobs report and pending home sales the strong US economic data looks to continue into today and tomorrow. ISM manufacturing PMI will likely show the momentum from Q3 is carrying over in to Q4 which could translate into stronger GDP and finally put to bed the idea of a double dip US recession. Stronger data will likely keep the USD on its back foot and the USD/JPY could test yesterday's low of 77.30 with scope for the November 18th low of 76.55. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Month End Trading Day Could be USD Positive Posted: 30 Nov 2011 12:10 AM PST
Month end fixing may end up being USD positive as banks’ funding costs for USDs continue to rise. Trading in Asia was off to a rocky start with the Heng Seng down 1.80%. The economic calendar is crowded today but investors will continue to focus on the meeting of European finance ministers. Bank funding costs are rising as lenders scramble to secure USD funding. Today's end of month trading may increase demand for USDs, especially in Japan. The meeting of European finance ministers continues into its second day and an article in The Telegraph highlights comments by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble saying European finance ministers have not agreed on the terms of the EFSF. This afternoon in the North American session we will have the ADP jobs report and US pending home sales, along with Canadian GDP data. The USD could continue to firm in light of a failure of the European finance ministers to come away with concrete steps to shore up Europe's finances. The EUR/USD has support at the October low of 1.3145. A break here and the pair could move to 1.0350, the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the June 2010 to May 2011 bullish trend. Resistance is found at yesterday's high of 1.3440 and the November 18th high of 1.3610. The CAD/USD found support at 1.2060 and could now test the weekly high of 1.0520. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| USD/SEK Breaking 2-Year Downtrend Posted: 25 Nov 2011 12:45 AM PST
The Swedish krona continues to weaken as the USD/SEK breaks higher above its 2-year downtrend. Barring any surprises today the USD/SEK looks poised to close on a weekly basis above the downward sloping trend line from February 2009. The pair will encounter initial resistance at the September high of 6.9915, followed by the November 2010 high of 7.0700. A break here will open the door to the 2010 August and June highs of 7.5100 and 8.1350. The broken trend line may prove to be supportive at 6.6860 followed by the October low of 6.3075.
Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Fed Meeting Minutes to Show Dovish Policy Stance Posted: 22 Nov 2011 02:13 AM PST
Today's economic calendar will be highlighted by the release of the FOMC meeting minutes which are likely to show the Fed stands ready to act should inflation expectations continue to decline. Investors remain firmly focused on events in Europe though the release of the meeting minutes from the past FOMC meeting could draw some attention from the markets. The Fed will likely address the improved US economic data but also keep the door open to additional monetary policy easing should the Fed see the need. With the doves firmly in control of the Fed and stagnant US unemployment, we continue to expect the Fed to initiate QE3. The USD continues to move higher this morning versus the majors with the lone exception being the EUR/USD which has support at the base of the recent consolidation at 1.3430 and resistance at the October 18th high of 1.3555. Cable is trading near yesterday's low of 1.5610 and a break here could open the door to the September low of 1.5325. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| USD is Bid to Begin this Week’s FX Trading Posted: 21 Nov 2011 04:43 AM PST
The USD is up prior to the North American trading session despite a failure of the US super committee to come to an agreement. Pressure remains in the euro zone as Moody's said France's credit rating could be downgraded. With the recent USD strength some of the major currencies are now standing at significant technical levels. It is expected today that the US super committee will fail in its mission to agree on budget cuts and potential tax increases. The failure does not come as a surprise to most market participants given the inability of Congress to work together on almost anything these days. However, it does add an additional level of uncertainty in the already shaky financial markets. Despite the negative news the USD is bid to begin this week's FX trading as market players focus on events in Europe. This morning Moody's warned that France's Aaa credit rating could be reduced due to elevated borrowing costs and a poor growth outlook for the French economy. One month ago Moody's warned it could put France on a negative outlook within the next three months. This puts expectations of additional rating action on course for January. Risk sentiment continues to turn lower due to the European debt crisis with the German DAX down by 2.60%. Many of the major currency pairs are standing close to significant support levels. The GBP/USD is testing the 1.5630 support from the October 18th low. A break here could spur further declines towards the October low of 1.5270. The AUD/USD has retraced 61% of its October move and could fall back to the October 4th low at 0.9385. The NZD/USD has broken its long term rising trend line from May 2010. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| FX Weekly Technical Analysis – USD/CHF May Rise Back to Long Term Trend Line Posted: 21 Nov 2011 02:06 AM PST
The USD continues to strengthen and shows little signs of slowing in this risk off environment. EUR/USD There is a bullish wedge pattern that has formed on the EUR/USD daily chart. The falling resistance line is off of the October high and the support line falls off the November 1st low. Resistance is found at 1.3615. A break here and the EUR/USD could test the November highs near 1.3850. Traders may be eyeing the October low of 1.3145 followed by a deeper move to the 2011 low of 1.2875.
GBP/USD After breaking lower from the late October-mid November consolidation pattern the GBP/USD rose back to the previous support line at 1.5850 only to turn lower once again. This is a textbook retracement to a previously known support that has now turned into resistance. Support may be found at the October 18th low of 1.5630 followed by the October low of 1.5270. Resistance comes in at the top of the previous consolidation pattern at 1.6075.
USD/JPY The slow decline of the USD/JPY back to its all-time low at 79.60 continues while the charts show very little support to prevent the move. Any attempt to bid the pair higher may encounter selling pressure at the November 15th high of 77.50 followed by the long term downtrend from the June 2007 high which comes in at 79.10.
USD/CHF The rally from the late October low continues to gain steam as the pair approaches the October high of 0.9310. Both weekly and monthly stochastics continue to move higher. A break of 0.9310 will expose the 20-month moving average at 0.9450 followed by the February high of 0.9770. Support is off of the November 3rd low of 0.8760 which coincides with the 100-day moving average. While perhaps a bit extreme the USD/CHF may eventually rise to the falling trend line off of the 2003, 2008, and 2010 highs which comes in at 1.1200.
Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| USD/JPY Breaking Below Support Posted: 18 Nov 2011 12:17 AM PST
The JPY is moving early this morning following a bout of USD weakness. With the USD/JPY breaking below the 76.80 support level there is little support remaining on the charts to stand in the way of the pair's all-time low. Most of the majors have been consolidating in the latter half of the week but the USD is weaker across the board to begin the London trading session. There is little data on the economic calendar to affect the majors with the exception of CPI numbers from Canada later this afternoon. The USD/JPY has been on the move early this morning, breaking through support at 76.80. The pair has retraced more than 61% of the most recent Japanese government intervention. Expectations are for the USD/JPY to continue to decline towards its all-time low at 75.55. Resistance will be found back at 76.80 followed by the long term downtrend from 2007 which comes in today at 79.15. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| US and Canadian Data Eyed but Events in Europe Dominate Posted: 10 Nov 2011 03:16 AM PST
A rebound in Italian bond prices has helped European equities recover some of yesterday's losses. The EUR has also retraced some of its declines but the short term move may have only offered traders better prices at which to reenter short. This afternoon will bring trade balance data from both the US and Canada while events in Europe continue to dominate the headlines. A successful Italian debt auction has helped equities and the EUR in the aftermath of yesterday's declines but all is not well in Italy. The fiscally strapped nation paid an EMU high yield for 12-month Treasury bills. Also the 10-year Italian BTP traded higher this morning with the yield falling to 6.94%, a sign bond markets remain concerned over Italian finances. The EUR/USD has moved higher to 1.3625, the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of yesterday and today's move (1.3858 to 1.3483). The pair has once again turned lower from here. This retracement may have offered some traders better levels at which to reenter the downtrend. Support is at today's low of 1.3483 and the 100-week moving average comes in at 1.3310. Resistance is higher at 1.3680 from the November 7th low. This afternoon the BoE will announce its interest rate and Asset Purchase Facility. No changes are expected from the BoE. The US and Canada will release their trade balance figures for September. There are no expected shocks to come from the reports as markets continue to focus on events in Europe. The USD/CAD has rallied on the back of USD strength. The pair failed to breach the 1.0263 resistance from October 18th but the MACD indicator is turning positive and a test of the 1.0656 high is possible. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Posted: 08 Nov 2011 11:29 PM PST
Yesterday saw the first real volatility in the USD/JPY since the MOF intervened. This morning's low coincides with a key technical level. The pair has fallen as low as 77.50, a 50% Fibonacci retracement from the 75.55/79.50 intervention rally and there may be scope for additional moves lower in the pair. A break of the 77.45 support from the mid-October highs cold have the pair testing both its 61% Fibonacci retracement at 77.07 as well as its 55-day moving average at 76.94. The bearish tone could be reversed with a move back above 78.25. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| USD up on Risk Aversion, European Equities Crushed Posted: 01 Nov 2011 06:32 AM PDT
Last week's relief rally that swept over financial markets has all but vanished with a move lower in risky assets driven by deterioration in the macro environment. In addition to the announced Greek referendum and disappointing Chinese/UK PMI data are weighing on the markets. European equities have been crushed with both the DAX and the CAC 40 down 5%. The Greek referendum appears comical. After struggling for the past two years fending off a messy default, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou invites the opportunity with one vote. As additional market commentaries and forex blogs have noted, the referendum could be a step in the direction of a Greek exit from the EMU. As such, the wheels of the EUR are beginning to come off with the EUR/USD down 2 big figures today. Support for the pair is the 61% retracement of the October move at 1.3565. PMI data released from China and the UK did little to improve the global economic outlook. China's Purchasing Manager's Index fell to 50.4 in October, dangerously close to the 50 boom/bust level. The UK's PMI also dropped to 47.4 from 50.8 in the previous month. Today's Q3 GDP was stronger than expected at 0.5% on forecasts for 0.4%, but the GDP data is in the past and the PMI numbers are forward looking which does not bode well for the UK economy. Cable has held up a bit better as the GBP/USD has not receded quite as much of the October gains as its European counterpart. Support is seen at 1.5850 from the rising short term support line off of the October 12th low. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Posted: 31 Oct 2011 08:10 AM PDT
With the monthly close coming today which caps an October that saw a sharp run up in the prices of risky assets the USD has caught a bid. $89 Bn of this bid likely came from the Japanese Ministry of Finance and increased criticism of the European agreement has most markets risk averse to start the week. The bankruptcy filing by MF Global may have played a part in the day's movement as the broker is a major player in many fixed income and derivative markets including European bonds. European data underperformed today with an unexpected increase in the Italian unemployment rate and disappointing German retail sales for the month of September which fell 0.14%. US data was also lower than expected with the Chicago PMI slipping to 58.4 from 60.4. Expectations were for a smaller decline to 59.2. On a bright note Canadian GDP was stronger than forecasted rising 0.3% in August on consensus forecasts of 0.2%. This week has a number of headline events with three central bank meetings (RBA, Fed, ECB) and key data points from both the UK (Q3 GDP) and the US (NFP). The EUR/USD has come off of its Thursday high and is testing short term support at 1.3980. A break here and the pair could shed another 70 pips to the October 17th high of 1.3910. Cable looks stronger prior to tomorrow's glut of UK data. Resistance comes in at last week's high/200-day moving average at 1.6150 with the next major resistance at the late August high of 1.6450. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
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