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FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

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U.S. Data Disappoints Today

Posted: 25 Sep 2009 01:35 PM PDT

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Those hoping for a quick economic turnaround in the U.S. economy were disappointed today as the economic data from the U.S. failed to match its market expectations. However, the surprise of poor performing Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales wasn’t enough to stop the trend of a weakening U.S. Dollar.

Core Durable Goods Orders had 0% growth for the month of August. They were forecasted to rise by 0.9%. Also Durable Goods Orders dropped by 2.4%, falling short of the 0.3% expected rise. This was the largest reduction of durable goods since the January contraction of 7.8%. Concurrently, new home sales rose for the fifth month in a row, but the rise was only 429K, far less than the 442K that was expected.

However, the disappointing data releases do not appear to be strong enough to convince forex traders that the U.S. economy’s recovery is stalling. This is shown by the continued depreciation of the dollar against the euro. Traders assume an economic recovery will be good for the euro.

Immediately following the data release, traders sold the EUR/USD, but in the later minutes after the market had a chance to fully absorb the data, the pair reversed its losses and proceeded on its upward trend. The EUR/USD could continue its month long bullish trend into the month of October.  

This disheartening news tells us that the road to economic recover will not be V-shaped, but rather gradually, and perhaps slower then expected. But it also tells us that the economic data has hit a trough, and may only have room to grow.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Forecast for April 1st

Posted: 30 Mar 2009 03:23 AM PDT

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As you all probably know, this week on Wednesday the U.S. Pending Home Sales report is expected, and its large effect on the market urged me to write this article.

First, I’ll try to explain what this report is used for, and why it influences the Dollar’s value, and then I’ll finish with a little prediction you may choose to utilize or not.

The Pending Home Sales report is an economic indicator published by the National Association of Realtors. It measures the change in the number of homes under contract to be bought but still awaiting the closure of the transaction, excluding any new construction.

Its impact on the economy derives from two different sources. One – after purchasing a new home, as you all probably know quite well, people tend to redecorate the house and to spend thousands of dollars on making it a home. Two – the financial bank and broker who are being paid to execute the transaction are also incurring increased funding which can also spur further investment.

All this makes it a leading indicator of economic health, which has an immense effect on the local currency – in our case, the USD.

Lately, the report reflected mixed results which were part of the reasons for the crazy trading rate of the Dollar for the past month. The expected figure is forecasted to be 1.1% greater than the previous release, which would help to strengthen the USD against its leading pairs and crosses. The current downtrend of the EUR/USD that we are experiencing at the moment is also due to this forecast, which made investors more confident in the U.S economy. However, it should be stated that a surprising negative result could easily have the reversed impact on the USD, and all you traders out there should stay very alert when the actual result will be published. The release of this figure is going to be a paramount time to open large positions and ride out the wave!

Protests in Brazil and Increased Demand Help Raise Oil Prices

Posted: 23 Mar 2009 10:25 PM PDT

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Crude Oil prices hit $54 yesterday, before settling at $53.62. This price is the highest Oil has been since December 2008, but still significantly lower than last July’s high of $147 a barrel. Crude prices increased yesterday for a number of reasons. However, the 2 main factors were the U.S. banking plan unveiled by U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner to buy toxic banking assets, and the better-than expected housing data. Also, there were protests in Brazil, which have been going on for 5 days, which have helped put upward pressure on Crude prices.

China announced yesterday that demand for Oil increased by 0.5%, marking a recent reversal. The underlying reason that has led to stability in the Crude Oil market is the supply cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). It seems their strategy has worked, and if they continue to cut the supply, Crude prices are likely to rise further. Additionally, if the U.S. continues to publish good data, and Obama shows that he is able to lead the world out of recession, then Crude prices may hit the $58-$60 price level by week’s end.
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