FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

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• Commodities Appear Poised for Upward Correction
• OPEC Expects Oil Prices to Rise
• U.S. Federal Budget Balance to be at the Forefront of Today’s Trading
• Forex Update
• Crude Oil Downward Trend Set to Continue
• Dollar and Crude Oil Up Front
• Crude Oil and Gold on the Rise
• Dollar Rises and Oil Drops
• Is Crude Oil Set for a U-Turn?
• Crude Oil Price Reversal in the Making?
• Commodities Forecast – Silver, Gold, Crude Oil Prices

Commodities Appear Poised for Upward Correction Posted: 24 Jan 2011 07:00 AM PST It appears the decline in US dollar values has not yet been priced into commodities and we may be expecting a major correction in physical asset prices this week as a result. So far the EUR/USD has climbed over 0.9% on the day, but Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil prices are still falling. Either the market is pulling out of commodities in tandem with the US dollar as part of a portfolio diversification in equity markets, or the USD’s plummet has not yet been priced in. Either way, commodities should climb in the days ahead. Here’s why: Gold and Silver are both approaching significant support barriers. Gold’s 3-month psychological support level at $1,335 an ounce is near at hand and we are already beginning to see Gold quiver and shake as it reaches that price, hinting at its upcoming bounce. Silver’s month-and-a-half support line at $27.00 an ounce is literally mimicking Gold’s price behavior. Both should see an upward retracement of around 3-5% in the forthcoming two weeks of trading as a result of these technical indications. Crude Oil likewise appears to be approaching a relevant price barrier near $87.50 a barrel. However, we don’t see the same quakes on oil prices as we do in precious metals, suggesting a fundamental valuation is in play on Crude Oil. In short, if any of the commodities are to break through their immediate support levels, it looks like Crude Oil has the best chance. On the other hand, the heavy downward movement of the USD today suggests that all commodities should experience a corrective upturn this week. Look for the swing and capture the bullish movement as it heads your way!

OPEC Expects Oil Prices to Rise Posted: 16 Nov 2009 08:50 PM PST Crude Oil rose by the most in 6-weeks on a weak USD and a stock market rally in the U.S. As a result, this boosted investor’s confidence that energy demand will increase significantly in the coming months. Crude Oil closed at $79.46 from an opening of $77.22. Crude was helped as traders bought-up the commodity as an alternative investment, due to the mass sell-off of the USD. It seems that traders are optimistic about the U.S. and global economy. This has really helped Crude prices. However, the commodity may only rise significantly above $80, if we see more impressive data and significantly higher demand too. It seems that the Organization of Oil Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is happy with the current prices levels. They expect prices to rise in the very near future.

U.S. Federal Budget Balance to be at the Forefront of Today’s Trading Posted: 12 Oct 2009 08:22 PM PDT The Dollar experienced in most cases a bearish trading day on Monday, as it fell against the EUR, the CAD and the CHF. With regards to the British Pound, the British currency tumbled vs. the USD, EUR and JPY. Crude Oil and Gold rising significantly on Monday helped put additional downward pressure on the USD. This trend accelerated as the trading day continued to unfold. 08:30 GMT – GBP CPI •Measures the change in the price of services and goods that are produced by the British economy. •Key indicator of British economic health. •Positive Results are likely to lead to a bullish British Pound. 09:00 GMT – EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment •Measures the level of a diffusion index that is based on surveyed German institutional analysts and investors. •There is expected to be high volatility in the forex market on the publication of the above data. •Traders should pay close attention to the forex market as there is an opportunity for them to take advantage of fluctuations that are likely to follow this key release. Tentative – USD Federal Budget Balance •The difference in the value between the federal budget’s spending and income during the previous month. •The indicator is expected to rise from the previous reading. •A higher than forecast figure may push the USD lower. Whereas a lower than forecast result could push the USD far higher today.

Forex Update Posted: 14 Sep 2009 09:11 PM PDT The USD experienced a very volatile trading day, as it fell to its lowest level in almost a year against the EUR. The British Pound made significant gains against the JPY yesterday, whilst plummeting against the EUR. In late trading yesterday, Crude Oil made some important gains. Therefore, the USD’s decline against the EUR seemed to have eventually lent some support to Crude prices. If things continue, maybe Oil may rise to $70 today a barrel today. 8:30 GMT – GBP CPI •This indicator reflects the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. •This figure is forecast to fall from the previous reading. •The release usually creates volatile trading. •A result higher than the forecast of 1.4% could send the GBP/USD above the 1.6650 mark. 9:00 GMT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment •Measures the Level of a diffusion index that is based on surveyed German institutional analysts and investors. •Key indicator of German and Euro-Zone economic health. •Positive results likely to lead to a bullish EUR. 12:30 GMT: 3 Key U.S. Data Releases – Core Retail Sales, PPI, Retail Sales •These releases are likely to Impact USD trading. •There is expected to be high volatility on the publication of the above data. •Traders should pay close attention to the forex market as there is an opportunity for traders to take advantage of fluctuations that are likely to follow these key releases.

Crude Oil Downward Trend Set to Continue Posted: 17 Aug 2009 04:57 AM PDT The price of Crude Oil has fallen considerably in the past several trading days. This was despite what we saw as a mini recovery for Crude in the previous month. On the one hand, there is some support for Crude, as Germany and Japan officially rose out of recession in the 2nd quarter. However, the facts on the ground offer a more pessimistic picture for the price of Crude Oil, as there is still a long way to go before we see a fall recovery in the back gold. In addition, as long as demand doesn’t support supply and the Dollar continues to rise, then Crude prices are set to plummet in the coming weeks. This is supported by the technical analysis below Crude Oil Technical Analysis The technical indicators used are the slow Stochastic, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD. Point 1: The Stochastic slow signals that the pair sits near the top border, suggesting that a downward correction may be imminent. Point 2: The RSI signals that the downward correction is already underway, and this trend is set to continue. Point 3: the MACD indicates that the price of the pair currently floats in the over-bought territory, indicating downward pressure. Crude Oil Weekly Chart

Dollar and Crude Oil Up Front Posted: 04 Aug 2009 09:49 AM PDT Monday’s trading saw the Dollar fall against nearly all of its major currency pairs. On the other hand, Crude Oil rose to its highest level since the beginning of July. The Dollar slumped vs. the key currencies, including the GBP, EUR and Canadian Dollar yesterday. This was largely owed to the publication of optimistic U.S. manufacturing and construction data. Furthermore, the greenback was sold-off, as risk appetite was extremely high throughout yesterday’s trading. Crude Oil prices rose to over $72 a barrel yesterday, before closing at $71.25. This came about due to the dramatic rise in global optimism, increased risk appetite, and a global rally in stocks and commodities. The decline of the USD on Monday helped push-up the price of Crude, which itself is priced in U.S. Dollars. 08:30 GMT: GBP – Construction PMI Measures an index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the British construction industry. It is a leading indicator of economic health, and one of the primary measurements of economic activity. A figure higher than forecast is usually good for the GBP and a pessimistic result usually leads to a bearish GBP. 14:00 GMT: USD – Pending Home Sales Measures the amount of homes that are under contract to be sold, but still pending the closing contract, excluding new construction. It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health. The US Pending Home Sales usually has a big impact on market sentiment, and could lead to very high market volatility.

Crude Oil and Gold on the Rise Posted: 03 Aug 2009 12:44 AM PDT In accordance with the Dollar’s recent depreciation, the commodities’ values have risen. An ounce of gold is currently traded for around $955, and a barrel of Crude Oil is traded for over $70 – near a 1-month high! The rise in oil seems to go hand-in-hand with the positive publications, especially from the U.S, as they create the impression that demand for energy is likely to rise in the near future. The major currencies continue to experience large volatility, and the only strong currency seems to be the Pound which has managed to rise against all of the major currencies. Today’s major publications: 08:30: GBP Manufacturing PMI: - The British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is a leading indicator of economic health. Considering that the Pound rose significantly last week, a worse-than-expected result may have the potential to create a correction today. 14:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI: - A similar indicator to the British one above. Current expectations are for a 46.4 result. This result may not have a sharp impact on the market. However, a result above 50.0 could change course in the market, and boost the Dollar. * Please note that the Canadian Banks will be closed today due to the Civic holiday.

Dollar Rises and Oil Drops Posted: 29 Jul 2009 10:41 PM PDT The 2 leading trends in the market at the moment are the bullish US Dollar and bearish commodities, especially Crude Oil and Gold. It is very clear that the two trends are highly correlated, thus whenever one of them will show signs of reversing, the other one is likely to follow. The main reasons for these trends are statements from China that it will maintain a loose monetary policy, as well as yesterday’s unexpected high Crude Oil Inventories report. Crude Oil Inventories simply showed that oil supplies in the U.S have grown substantially; highlighting weak demand and possibly lower growth forecasts. Every time this report offers surprising results, a sharp change in oil’s value is promptly followed. This time around, the result was to push the price of Oil lower than was anticipated. Today’s leading publications: 07:55 (GMT) – German Unemployment Change: This report will show if the German unemployment condition has worsened in line with expectation during June. If the actual result will be similar to forecasts, the EUR is expected to drop. 12:30 (GMT) – U.S Unemployment Claims: This report shows the changes in U.S unemployment during the last week. Analysts forecasted that 573K people have lost their jobs during the past week. Such result will be the worst result in the past 4 weeks and is likely to strengthen the demand for the safety of the Dollar. However, if the actual result will be somewhat better, then the Dollar might lose some steam.

Is Crude Oil Set for a U-Turn? Posted: 23 Jun 2009 05:07 AM PDT The price of Crude Oil is set to for a bullish u-turn, according to both fundamental and technical data. It seems that the recent downward trend in the price of Crude may be short-lived, as factors on the ground signal an upward trend in the next several days for Crude. For example, the rapidly improving global economic situation has led some analysts to even forecast Oil to hit $85 before years end. They see the current bearishness in Crude a result of investors selling the commodity for profit taking. However, a number of analysts foresee an upward trend ahead for the coming week. Crude Oil hit a recent high of $73.15 on June 11. But since then, the price of Oil has reversed slightly to just above $67 a barrel. The recent scare in the markets that the current economic slump will be prolonged did play a part in the recent sell-off of Crude. Therefore, fears arose that demand wouldn’t be able to support the prices that were previously in the market. On top of this, the strong USD recently helped push down the price of Crude. The price of Crude is already up about 65 cents or 1% today at $67.37, as data from Britain and the Euro-Zone was positive on Tuesday’s. The string of terrorist attacks on Oil refineries in Nigeria of the Shell Oil Company and the unrest in Iran are likely to help Crude Oil to continue today’s bullishness into next week. Additionally, if positive economic data continues to be published throughout the week for the leading economies, and the USD continues to weaken, we may see Crude hit the $70 mark within the next week. Below is the 4-hour chart for Crude Oil by ForexYard: The indictors used are the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Slow. Point 1: The RSI on the 4-hour chart indicates that the price of Crude Oil is below the 30 mark, and is in oversold territory. Point 2: The RSI also shows that there is upward support for Crude, and a bullish reversal may be in the making. Point 3: The Stochastic slow shows that a bullish cross recently took place below the 20 line, signaling a bullish reversal is already in the making. Crude Oil 4-hour Chart

Crude Oil Price Reversal in the Making? Posted: 17 Jun 2009 01:13 AM PDT • The chart below is the weekly Crude Oil chart by ForexYard. • The technical indicators used are the Bollinger Bands, Stochastic and RSI. • There is a “doji” candlestick formed in the chart, indicating that a reversal should take place. • The trend has reached the Bollinger Bands’ upper border, which may hint that the uptrend has reached its conclusion. • A bearish cross on the Stochastic suggests that bearish activity might be imminent. • The RSI has switched directions and is now facing down, however a much stronger signal will be given once it drops bellows the 70 line. • It currently seems that a bearish move might be on its way, yet a red candlestick is required in order to assure the notion. Forex traders are welcomed to follow Crude Oil’s daily chart and look for the potential drop.

Commodities Forecast – Silver, Gold, Crude Oil Prices Posted: 29 May 2009 11:41 AM PDT Gold Gold prices jumped to their highest level in 3 months on Friday, finding support as a hedge against fears of higher inflation and a broad rise in commodity prices. Investor sentiment remains positive and a weaker dollar is likely to spur investors to increase their exposure to Gold, according to analysts. The precious metal has risen about 1% this week and has gained about $80, or 9%, this month, putting it on track for its biggest monthly rise in 6 months. Gold seems to be getting support from oil, as high oil prices can lead to fears of inflation. Furthermore, Gold and Oil might move together at times as both are seen in some way as real commodity investments. In the near term, the dominant theme behind moves in Gold appears to be moves in the U.S. dollar rather than inflation expectations. This trend for rising Gold prices is likely to persist, with $980 an ounce as the next price target. Silver Silver prices surpassed $15 an ounce on Thursday for the first time in more than 9 months, rising more than 2% as hopes for an economic recovery raised inflation concerns. The metal which is seen as a hedge against inflation, has already gained 34% since the beginning of this year. Trading in Silver has also signaled investors’ hopes for an economic recovery. Economic optimism was reinforced Thursday by a pair of U.S. government reports that showed the number of new layoffs declined last week and durable-goods orders rose more than predicted last month. Silver prices are benefiting from strong investment demand for the metal, as investors are buying the metal as a cheap proxy for Gold. It too is being seen as a good portfolio diversifier to hedge against Dollar weakness and inflation. For the week ahead further upside is expected, with 15.57 and 16.00 in sight. Crude Oil Crude Oil prices headed for their biggest monthly gain in a decade, prices jumped to a 6-month high on Thursday after the Energy Department weekly report showed a drop in inventories. Oil prices have already jumped around 30% this month and rose to a new high above $66 per barrel on Friday, after Japanese and U.S. data suggested the economic downturn may be moderating. Better U.S. durable goods orders figures on Thursday also reinforced the sense that the global economic slump might be abating, despite a disappointing U.S. home sales report. Separately, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided on Thursday to maintain its current production levels. OPEC Secretary General said that Crude prices should remain in a $60-to-$70 a barrel range for the rest of the year. The minister forecasted that Oil may rise to $75 a barrel by this year's 3 or 4 quarter. The group's next meeting will be on Sept. 9, he said.

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