FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog | |
- New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
- Japanese Home Construction Expecting Sharp Plummet
- Japanese Retail Sales Plummet 1.2%
- Australian Core CPI Sluggish in October
- New Zealand NBNZ Confidence Report Halved
- New Zealand Dollar Expecting Volatile Move Monday Night
- Inflationary Growth Slowing in Australia
- Japanese Industry Falling Behind
- Australian Employment Figures Lift AUD
- What Does the RBA Have to Say?
- Risk Sentiment Falls and AUD Comes Under Pressure
| New Zealand Interest Rate Decision Posted: 07 Dec 2011 06:24 AM PST
Today at 20:00 GMT we will get the interest rate decision and press conference from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The RBNZ is expected to hold rates steady at 2.50% unlike the RBA which lowered Australian interest rates by 25 bp. Given the headwinds facing the global economy the RBNZ would most likely enjoy loosening monetary policy. However, because of higher inflation the RBNZ may keep interest rates on hold. Currently New Zealand inflation stands at 4.6% y/y. The RBNZ targets inflation between 1-3%. The NZD/USD should be supported in the near term if some of some sort of compromise comes from this week's EU economic summit. The 6-month trailing correlation between NZD/USD and EUR/USD stands at 0.80. A correlation closer to 1.00 means the currency pairs move in the same direction. This should help keep the NZD supported versus the USD and the NZD/USD has resistance at the top of the recent consolidation pattern at 0.7840 followed by 0.7980 off of the falling trend line from the August high. Support comes in at 0.7730. For those traders looking to avoid exposure to the EUR the AUD/NZD may offer just that as the pair has a 6-month trailing correlation of with the EUR/USD of -0.16. This indicates there is a weak relationship between the movement of the two currency pairs. The technical picture for the AUD/NZD shows a triangle consolidation pattern from the November 18th high and the November 25th low. The initial resistance from the pattern is 1.3210 followed by 1.3380 off of the trend line from the yearly high. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Japanese Home Construction Expecting Sharp Plummet Posted: 31 Oct 2011 06:01 AM PDT
This morning's early publication of Japanese housing starts portrayed a capital economy in deep contraction heading into the end of 2011. Housing starts are an indicator of the number of private homes starting construction, making it an early gauge of domestic capital investment and early consumer spending and optimism. The indicator was expected to show a modest uptick of approximately 8.3% this month. The shocking 10.8% contraction in housing starts has riled several large investors. The Japanese yen (JPY) was trading with mixed results as a consequence and some are wondering what impact this will have on yen values as the year comes to a close. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Japanese Retail Sales Plummet 1.2% Posted: 27 Oct 2011 06:06 AM PDT
Expectations for this morning's retail sales data out of Japan were for zero growth, which would have been a step in the right direction had it occurred. Unfortunately, the level of consumer spending on retail items in Japan fell by approximately 1.2% in October. The impact has so far been muted by the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate statement which saw the nation's rates held near zero percent and few comments worthy of note. The yen is still trading mildly bullish, though some setbacks have been seen from recent data. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Australian Core CPI Sluggish in October Posted: 26 Oct 2011 07:27 AM PDT
Consumer inflation, as reported by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this morning, seems to have held steady at 0.6% in October. But the Trimmed Mean CPI, which is similar to the Core CPI reading of other countries since it excludes the most volatile items, revealed sluggishness with only 0.3% growth despite forecasts for a higher reading. The consumer price index (CPI) measures the change in price paid by consumers and represents one measure of economic growth. If prices are increasing, it can be due to any one or a combination of several factors including higher demand, rising energy costs, rising manufacturing costs, lower supply, longer transportation times (i.e. higher transportation costs) due to increased traffic during the holidays, etc. The sluggish reading suggests that the core of Australia's inflationary growth is being held lower which may affect the Aussie's (AUD) value over time. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| New Zealand NBNZ Confidence Report Halved Posted: 26 Oct 2011 07:23 AM PDT
The early morning's publication by the National Bank of New Zealand (NBNZ) regarding consumer confidence in October presented a rather ominous reading on consumer outlook in the Pacific island economy. The reading from September was published at a diffusion index reading at 30.3. This month saw the reading get more than halved with a release at 13.2. The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has been trending sideways for several days and this morning's publication did appear to place pressure atop the Kiwi. Should tonight's rate statements by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) come out dovish, we could see a wide sell-off in the NZD. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| New Zealand Dollar Expecting Volatile Move Monday Night Posted: 24 Oct 2011 07:39 AM PDT
With New Zealand banks on holiday Monday in observance of Labour Day, many are anticipating a volatile jump in the New Zealand dollar's (NZD) value come reopening later this evening. The New Zealand economy is releasing a highly important data release on consumer inflation (CPI). As this report comes on the coattails of a bank holiday, it is expected to generate a wider swing than usual as bank liquidity comes back online simultaneously with an impactful report. The Kiwi has been consolidating lately and this evening's data release could be what's needed to shake it loose and send it reeling. Traders interested in trying to capture this volatility for profit would do well to watch this evening's report. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Inflationary Growth Slowing in Australia Posted: 24 Oct 2011 07:32 AM PDT
The quarterly report on the Australian producer price index (PPI) revealed a slow-down in growth from an expected 0.8% to a reading of 0.6%. The indicator suggests that price increases related to increased demand for produced goods has diminished somewhat as the Australian economy turns mildly sluggish. This report has so far dragged the Australian dollar (AUD) down mildly this morning, but speculators are turning their attention to the risk appetite of European nations this afternoon following the manufacturing and service reports out of the euro zone. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Japanese Industry Falling Behind Posted: 20 Oct 2011 12:57 AM PDT
Coming in line with Monday's statement on revised industrial production, this morning's release on All Industry Activity in Japan revealed another sluggish month for the island economy. Expectations were for a mild downturn, making the report less surprising, however. The results revealed a month-on-month contraction of approximately 0.4%. Following Monday's release of industrial production, which fell short of market forecasts, makes this report more ominous for Japan. The yen may find itself coming under pressure as a result. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Australian Employment Figures Lift AUD Posted: 13 Oct 2011 06:50 AM PDT
The value of the Australian dollar (AUD) made a jump in today's early trading following reports from the Australian Bureau of Statistics that employment saw modest growth in September. The Employment Change figure was forecast to see an expansion of roughly 10,100 jobs; the results were more than double. A surprise expansion of nearly 20,400 jobs in September has generated some reflections that the Aussie economy is actually regaining its foothold after a series of poor reports. The unemployment rate also decreased from 5.3% to 5.2% this month. The AUD is gaining value and could enter a longer-term uptrend if things remain bullish. |
| What Does the RBA Have to Say? Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:05 AM PDT
Tomorrow's early morning release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy meeting minutes will not likely carry a hefty impact on currency markets, though the commentary will be very prescient for analysts interested in what the RBA has to say about the current freefall of Australia's economic outlook. No doubt Australia's economy is coming under pressure lately. Housing reports seem to have leveled off, giving few indications of growth. Consumer confidence seems to be rickety, at best. Commodity prices are helping to hold the value of the AUD from entering a deeper devaluation, but high export prices and interest rate appear to be pulling some value away from the Aussie economy. What the RBA notes in its minutes will be worth reading for savvy investors. Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
| Risk Sentiment Falls and AUD Comes Under Pressure Posted: 14 Sep 2011 03:27 AM PDT
The Australian dollar has been one of the worst performing currencies this week as reduced risk sentiment weighs on the currency. The fact that AUD market positioning continues to increase stands out in this "risk off" trading environment. With market speculation running wild of a potential Greek default and French banks coming under funding pressures risk sentiment has plummeted as traders move into safe haven assets such as the USD and US Treasuries. The AUD is considered a high beta currency and has been sent sharply lower over the past few days. Versus the USD the AUD is down 2.1% this week alone and has shed 5.2% since its September 1st high. The AUD is also down sharply in the crosses with the AUD/NZD falling 1.1 % this week and the AUD/JPY down 3.1% as well. Data released on Monday showed the Australian trade surplus declined to AUD 1.826 bn while the June surplus was revised lower to 1.82 bn from 2.05 bn. The declines in the trade balance point to weaker future growth. Data released today showed Q2 housing starts declined -4.7% and underlines the slowing housing sector. Risks of a hard landing in China have also weighed on the AUD as over 21% of its Australian exports go to China, though positive new loan data and lower than expected CPI have reduced risks for a sharp decline in Chinese growth. At its last meeting the RBA highlighted of the increasing risks to the European and US economies but maintained its hawkish tone as inflation remains elevated at 3.6% and economic growth continues to increase due to higher commodity prices. However, it is unlikely for the RBA to continue its current rate hiking cycle given the western economies may be standing on the edge of a cliff. What stands out is the rising long position in the market for Australian dollar futures. The most recent CFCT Commitment of Traders report shows speculators have added to their long AUD positioning despite reduced market sentiment stemming from Europe. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in this Friday's report. The technical picture is also looking bleak. After breaking its long term trend line from Q2 2010 the AUD/USD failed to make a significant move back above the trend line in early September. Often a currency pair will break below a trend line only to rise back to the previously broken trend lines which will then serve as a resistance level. A move below the support of 1.0315 has opened the door to 0.9925 at the August low/38% Fib retracement from the 2010-2011 up trend. Below that rests the March low of 0.9700. The AUD/NZD head and shoulders pattern failed to complete itself and likely caught AUD bulls long, triggering stops on the way down. The next support level for the AUD/NZD rests at the August low of 1.2625.
Read more forex trading news on our forex blog. |
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