FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog | |
- EUR/USD Ascending to 50% Retracement Level at 1.3500
- German Ifo Business Report May Boost Euro Today
- AUD/NZD Uptrend Might be Near the End
- Buy Signals on NZD/CHF
- US Dollar Rebounds on Strong Retail Sales
- EUR/NOK Momentum Continues to the Downside
- Swedish Interest Rate Decision
- AUD/USD Poised for Downward Correction
- Heavy News Day Set to Impact Majors
- USD/JPY – Entry Long to Post Intervention High
| EUR/USD Ascending to 50% Retracement Level at 1.3500 Posted: 16 Dec 2010 10:00 PM PST
The discussions taking place at the EU Summit in Brussels has taken an interesting turn. News has been leaked that the ministers are discussing the possibilities of implementing a permanent bailout mechanism to help the region avoid future debt crises like those of Greece and Ireland. The result has been a short-term boost to the EUR against its primary currency rivals. As we can see from the chart below, the EUR/USD has been range-trading between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels. The MACD on the chart below also shows a bullish cross and an ascending price movement, suggesting bullish pressure is building on the pair. With the EU Summit's leaked discussions, a potentially positive reading from the German Ifo Business report today at 9:00 GMT, and the technical indicators shown below, all evidence seems to point to an upward price movement. Traders may want to keep this in mind today as the week comes to a close and look to enter long positions on the euro ahead of these movements. EUR/USD – Daily Chart |
| German Ifo Business Report May Boost Euro Today Posted: 16 Dec 2010 09:37 PM PST
As we close out another week today, all eyes are on the EU Economic Summit, currently in its second day. The euro has gone up marginally against its main currency rivals following news that the EU may implement a permanent stability mechanism in order to prevent any further euro zone debt crises. Whether or not the euro can maintain its overnight gains will largely depend on today’s sole significant economic indicator, the German Ifo Business Climate. 9:00 GMT: EUR German Ifo Business Climate This indicator is considered to be one of the leading signals of economic health in the euro zone. The Ifo Business Climate is a survey of various businesses in Germany. As businesses are typically the first to react to any economic changes, traders will want to pay careful attention to today’s figure. Furthermore, German economic indicators tend to create heavy volatility among euro pairs, largely because Germany is the biggest euro zone economy. Last month, the survey came in well above analyst predictions, leading to a healthy boost for the euro. Should a similar occurrence happen today, traders may be able to capitalize on an impending bullish session for the 16-nation single currency. Currently, forecasts are calling for a figure of around 109.2. Anything at or above this level may lead to significant gains for the euro to close out the week. |
| AUD/NZD Uptrend Might be Near the End Posted: 16 Dec 2010 12:44 AM PST
In the last three weeks trading, the AUD/NZD experienced much bullishness, as it stands now at 1.3400. However as I demonstrate below, it seems that the pair's bullish run may have run of steam, and a bearish correction could be underway soon. Forex traders can take advantage of this imminent downward movement by entering short positions at an excellent entry price. • Below is the 8-hour chart of the AUD/NZD currency pair. • The technical indicators that are used are the William Percent Range, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Slow Stochastic. • Point 1: There is a "doji" candlestick that has formed on the chart, indicating that a reversal should take place. • Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction. • Point 3: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the overbought territory, signaling downward pressure. • Point 4: The Williams Percent Range also supports the downward direction. AUD/NZD 8-Hour chart |
| Posted: 15 Dec 2010 02:49 AM PST
The pair has recorded much bearish behavior in the past several days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse anytime soon. For example, as I demonstrate below, the 8-hour chart signals that a bullish reversal is imminent. Forex traders have the opportunity to wait for the upward breach on the hourlies and go long in order to ride out the impending wave. • Below is the 8-hour chart of the NZD/CHF currency pair. • The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic, Williams Percent Range, and Relative Strength Index (RSI). • Point 2: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals that the price of this pair currently floats in the over-sold territory, indicating upward pressure. • Point 3: The Williams Percent Range has peaked near at the -100 marker, which means that there may actually be a strong level of upward pressure. NZD/CHF 8- Hour Chart |
| US Dollar Rebounds on Strong Retail Sales Posted: 14 Dec 2010 10:32 PM PST
The US dollar appears to have rebounded against its primary currency rivals yesterday and this morning. Solid growth in American retail sales and inflationary figures led many traders to take profit on dollar pairs. A continuation of the US interest rates at <0.25% came as expected and today's news looks to be positive for the USD as well. Here is a roundup of today's leading events: 9:30 GMT: GBP – Claimant Count Change This report measures the number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous month. While it is considered a lagging indicator, it nevertheless carries a strong impact on the GBP market since it is released a month prior to the unemployment rate and thus affects outlook on consumer spending and growth. 14:00 GMT: USD – TIC Long-Term Purchases The Treasury International Capital (TIC) report measures the difference between foreign capital purchased by US investors and US capital purchased by foreign investors. Its intention is to measure investment flows into and out of the United States. The higher the reading, the more money is flowing into the US relative to the amount of money flowing out of the US, and thus indicates higher demand for the US dollar. |
| EUR/NOK Momentum Continues to the Downside Posted: 14 Dec 2010 07:01 AM PST
In staying with the previous analysis, the EUR/NOK has broken below its rising intermediate trend line on the daily chart and continues to move lower towards its year low. Following a sharp drop in the value of the pair, the EUR/NOK breached its intermediate rising trend line that extends off of the lows in May and September of this year. The pair has continued to move lower making its way to the 7.8900 level today. Technical studies show more moves to the downside may be in store for the pair. Momentum is falling and the EUR/NOK has closed below both the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages. Previously identified support levels remain intact beginning with the September low of 7.8300, followed by the June low of 7.800, and finally the swing low on the daily chart at 7.6685. Resistance comes in at the 8.000 level and the October high of 8.2540.
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| Swedish Interest Rate Decision Posted: 14 Dec 2010 06:56 AM PST
Tomorrow will bring interest rate decisions from both Norway and Sweden. However, the two countries differ as Sweden is expected to raise its benchmark rate while Norway will most likely hold interest rates steady. Economists forecast Sweden's Riksbank will increase its repo rate by 0.25 basis points to 1.25%. Norway's Norges Bank is expected to maintain its deposit rate at 2%. One reason for the expected rise in the Swedish interest rate is the spike in housing prices. For the past 18-consecutive months housing prices have risen. Over the last 3-months alone housing prices are up 5%. Housing prices in Norway have also turned sharply higher rising 6.2% this year. The spike in housing prices may have been caused by interest rates being held too low by both nations during the financial crisis of the past 2.5 years. A sharp jump in housing prices has been accompanied by lower than expected inflation as the Riksbank targets annual inflation of 2% while the Norges Bank targets 2.5%. As both countries move towards a tighter monetary policy both the Norwegian and Swedish krona may benefit as the interest rate differential widens between the Nordic countries and the rest of the world. Currently the ECB has interest rates set at 1.00% while the US keeps its interest rate below 0.25% along with engaging in further loosening of monetary policy. |
| AUD/USD Poised for Downward Correction Posted: 14 Dec 2010 12:17 AM PST
Over the last several weeks, the Australian dollar has been able to capitalize on the poor economic situation in the United States and make substantial gains against the USD. Since the beginning of the month, the AUD/USD pair has moved up some 400 pips. Forexyard traders will be interested to know that the pair may be due for a downward correction. Technical data indicates the cross is currently in overbought territory, meaning bearish movement is likely. We will be looking at the 8-hour chart for AUD/USD, provided by Forexyard. The technical indicators being used are the Williams Percent Range, Stochastic Slow, and Relative Strength Index. 1. Typically when the Williams Percent Range is over -20, it is a clear indication that the instrument is overbought. Here, we can see the indicator is right around the -5 level, meaning a downward correction may take place. 2. Traders will want to keep a close eye on the Stochastic Slow, as it is currently showing the pair approaching the overbought region. Should the two lines intersect above the 80 level, it can be taken as a clear signal of impending bearish pressure. 3. Finally, the Relative Strength Index is currently right around the 75 level. Anything above 70 is usually taken as a sign that the pair could experience downward movement. Now may be a great time for traders to enter into sell positions at a great entry price, in order to capitalize on the coming trend. |
| Heavy News Day Set to Impact Majors Posted: 13 Dec 2010 10:57 PM PST
With an unusually large number of news events coming from the euro-zone and United States today, forex traders have been in a frenzy to place their bets before the trading day gets underway. Trading during these news events, which typically carry a lot of market volatility, is a fast way to double your forex trading balance. Special attention should be paid to the German Economic Sentiment report at 10:00 GMT, the U.S Retail Sales at 13:30 GMT, and Federal Funds Rate at 19:15 GMT. Will you take advantage of the impending volatility, or sit on the sidelines and miss out? 10:00 GMT- German Economic Sentiment • It reflects the level of diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts. 13:30GMT- US Retail Sales • It reflects the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. 19:15 GMT- U.S Federal Funds Rate |
| USD/JPY – Entry Long to Post Intervention High Posted: 13 Dec 2010 12:24 AM PST
The USD/JPY is currently moving towards its recent high of 84.40. A close above this level shows limited resistance until the September high. Long term time frames also signal a continuation of the move. Following the pair's breach of the long term downward sloping trend line (1) on the daily chart the pair has risen to the 84.40 level (2). Clearly defined support and resistance levels appear on the chart and a buy signal is supported by a long term technical sign. An entry long may be initiated with a move above the 84.40 (2) level targeting the post intervention high at 85.90 (3). Further resistance at 88.10 (4) can be used as a long range target as resistance is lacking on both the daily and longer time frame charts. A long term downward sloping trend line on the weekly chart (not shown) may also provide resistance at 88.60. Support can be found at both 83.45 (5) and 82.30 (6), as well as the rising trend lines off the October and November lows.
The monthly chart provides a hint at the potential long term future price action with a rising stochastic oscillator.
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