Wednesday, June 8, 2011

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

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Positive European Data Grants EUR Support

Posted: 07 Jun 2011 05:24 AM PDT

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After plummeting yesterday on news of Greece potentially failing to get a bailout, the EUR was on the upside this morning after two reports gave investors reason to buy back into the region.

Germany published its factory orders data which revealed a better than expected 2.8% jump in manufacturing expectations. The euro zone's retail sales data also came out above forecasts at 0.9%; analysts had forecast approximately 0.4% growth given the downturn in spending data.

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RBA Holds Rates, AUD and Stocks Flatten

Posted: 07 Jun 2011 05:20 AM PDT

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its short-term interest rates steady this morning and so far traders have seen the country's stocks flatten out with moderate bearish pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD) arising.

The decline in oil and other commodity prices may partially explain the AUD's slump. The combined force of pessimism, which appears to have reared its head after this rate statement, and a drop in the price of physical assets has so far put a dent in the Aussie's value and could continue to do so throughout the week.

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Canadian Housing Sector Anticipating Sharp Downturn

Posted: 07 Jun 2011 05:16 AM PDT

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The agency Statistics Canada yesterday published a report on Canadian building permits which revealed a sharp monthly downturn in the approval rating for the construction of new buildings. The data is also suggestive of a decline in applications for the start of new residential construction.

Either way, this data supports the notion that consumer sentiment and investor appetite are on the decline even in relatively healthier economies like Canada's. Sluggish growth in oil prices could also be relevant to the CAD's recent stagnation. However, Canada's bullish Ivey PMI data could also explain the Loonie's sideways movement.

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BRC Monitor Posts 2.1% Decline in British Retail Sales Forecast

Posted: 07 Jun 2011 05:12 AM PDT

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The British Retail Consortium (BRC) posted its expectations for retail sales, year-on-year, this morning with results coming in line with much of the rest of the world. Sales of retail goods have been dropping globally these past few months as economic data reveals a sluggish recovery.

The BRC Monitor posted a 2.1% decline in retail sales data, which has so far translated into a continued decline in the British pound. The GBP/USD has sunk from its recent high to a current price near 1.6330. If news out of the UK persists with such negative reports, the pound is likely to continue sinking.

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Euro Rallies, Australian Dollar Down After Interest Rate Decision

Posted: 07 Jun 2011 05:06 AM PDT

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The Euro rallied to a one-month high on the back of better than expected data while the Aussie dollar was down after the Reserve Bank of Australia held its base interest rate at the current level and appeared less hawkish than expected.

European retail sales were surprisingly stronger as were German factory orders. The euro was up on the day but a majority of the gains were booked prior to the release of the economic data. This leads one to believe that the euro buying was done on expectations of a combination of factors; potential rate increase that is expected to be signaled by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet on Thursday as well as further steps towards a resolution to stave off a Greek default. The next resistance level for the EUR/USD comes in at the late April/early May lows at 1.4750. Support looks to be at 1.4550.

Sterling received a boost today after a modest rise in UK home prices over the month of May. Downside risks for UK economy exist as highlighted by an IMF report today that essentially backed the current policy measures of the Bank of England. Cable traded as high as 1.6470 before coming back down to 1.6415. Despite today's modest gains pair is showing falling momentum on the technical and a break of 1.6285 would test the rising trend line off of May 2010 low.

The decision to hold rates steady by the RBA is not too surprising given the stickiness of global economic data, specifically from the US. While inflation pressures remain in Australia, traders and economists will be looking for core inflation numbers to reach the upper band which the RBA holds between 2-3%. Currently RBA Governor Glenn Stevens believes there may be time for a pause in Aussie rate increases with the next possible rate adjustment coming in August. Following the dovish statement the AUD/USD slid early this morning to trade as low as 1.0670 before trading back to 1.0690. Support for the pair rests at Friday's low near 1.0600. In spite of the pause by the RBA the Australian dollar may have scope for further gains. A break of near-term resistance at 1.0770 could fuel gains to 1.0890.

US equities continue to slump having traded in the red the past 4 consecutive trading days with the S&P still up on the year by 2.7%. Traders are looking to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for verbal support but the risk is for a downgrade in the Fed's economic assessment, perhaps increasing the negative sentiment that is currently behind the dollar's decline.

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EUR/USD Potential Short Setup

Posted: 07 Jun 2011 02:38 AM PDT

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The EUR/USD is moving higher towards its previously broken trend line which could allow for a potential short setup.

Following the break of the January to May trend line the EUR/USD is quickly recovering towards the trend line which may now act as a resistance level. Should the EUR/USD move above the initial support at 1.4750 off the late April/early May lows, a potential opportunity to short the pair set up at the trend line at rate of approximately 1.4830. A protective stop should be used, whether it is a tight stop that trails the trend line or placed above the May high at 1.4940.

To the downside, support comes in at Monday's low at 1.4550 followed by Friday's low of 1.4450. Should a full-fledged reversal occur, additional supports are found at 1.4300 and the May low at 1.3970.

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EURUSD_Daily

Traders Anticipate Bernanke Speech

Posted: 07 Jun 2011 12:16 AM PDT

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After the US dollar had a moment to catch its breath yesterday the greenback has given back most of its gains in early European trading.

Today's Economic Data Releases:

EUR – Retail Sales – 09:00 GMT
Expectations: 0.4%. Previous: -0.9%.
European retail sales for the month of April are forecasted to show a modest gain after falling in March. A stronger than expected reading may help to support further euro gains that have been booked this morning, though that could quickly change as Thursday's ECB policy meeting approaches. Currently the EUR/USD is testing the resistance at 1.4660 from last Friday's high. A break here and the pair could climb to the next resistance located at 1.4760 off of the late April/early May lows. Support is found at 1.4450.

USD – Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks – 19:45 GMT
Bernanke is scheduled to give a speech touching on the US economic outlook later today in Atlanta. Given the recent downturn in US economic data traders will be looking for an adjustment in the Fed Chairman's wording, specifically on the pace of economic expansion. Any retreat in US growth expectations may be met with dollar selling. USD/JPY support is located at the May low of 79.56.

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