Thursday, June 23, 2011

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

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Sterling Tumbles on BoE Deflationary Warning

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 06:16 AM PDT

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Sterling fell sharply after the BoE meeting minutes showed the central bank is shifting its concerns to deflationary forces rather than inflationary pressures.

Yesterday's comments by BoE member Fisher were only a prelude to today's MPC meeting minutes which showed the BoE believes the current weakness in demand growth will continue for longer than previously thought. The central bank also noted risks the European debt crisis may weigh on future demand. However, what drove the sell-off of sterling this morning was the BoE left the door open for further asset purchases should deflationary forces emerge.

With fundamentals beginning to shift against sterling, a glance at the technicals show weekly and monthly stochastic are falling for the GBP/USD which could keep pressure on sterling in the near term. Short term resistance comes in at the May 24th low at 1.6060. A breach here might open the door to the March 28th low at 1.5935.

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US Traders Await Federal Funds Rate

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 06:13 AM PDT

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Forex traders are anticipating the afternoon publication of the US Federal Funds Rate, the recent decision made by the Fed regarding its short-term interest rates. Following last night's positive vote of confidence in the Greece parliament, global markets appear mixed and jittery from heightened risk sensitivity and increased volume.

Many analysts are expecting Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to once again downplay the risk of runaway inflation in the United States, signaling a continuation of the 0% to 0.25% record low interest rate. If dovish comments are reiterated from last month's release, traders may pull away from the USD in exchange for its higher yielding counterpart, the EUR, especially given the recent step towards achieving a bailout of Greece last night.

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Swiss ZEW Expectations in Steep Decline

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 06:10 AM PDT

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Swiss institutional investors and analysts are anticipating a steep decline in the country's economic conditions, according to a recent survey. This morning's publication of the ZEW Economic Expectations index revealed a sharp downturn in market forecasts by professional investors.

The reading, which bore no prior forecast, moved from last month's -11.5 to this month's -24.3. The data highlights an expectation for stagnating economic conditions in Switzerland for the coming 6 months. So far the result has been a minor pull down in Swiss franc (CHF) values against several currency rivals.

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Greece PM Ekes Out Confidence Vote Victory

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 06:06 AM PDT

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Greece Prime Minister George Papandreou and his cabinet won a victory last night with the vote of confidence coming out favorably for the sitting government. The 155-143 final tally was seen to be largely voted along party lines in the 300-seat legislature.

The vote was conducted by roll call following debates that centered primarily on the austerity package and the PM's handling of the debt crisis. A failure to win the confidence vote would have resulted in further turmoil that may have ended with Greece in default and with a more virulent debt contagion spreading across the euro zone. So far, markets appear mixed by the news, with regional bulls pushing hard for higher risk appetite but getting met by cautious pragmatism.

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New Zealand Trade Deficit Reaching Surplus Level

Posted: 22 Jun 2011 06:02 AM PDT

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Statistics New Zealand published a report this morning which gave a surprise to global investors. The figure released was the past month's Current Account, which measures the change in value of imported versus exported goods and services.

The New Zealand trade deficit, as reported by this morning's reading, was shown to be approaching surplus levels. Expectations for the figure were for a mild shrinkage in the deficit, but nothing of the sort seen last night. The report revealed the deficit dropping to NZ$ 0.10B from the previous reading's NZ$ 3.63B. Traders have taken the news as a sign of impending growth for the island economy and have purchased NZD as a result.

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Japanese Industry Activity Sees Muted Growth

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 11:18 PM PDT

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The industrial sector of the Japanese economy this past month was reported as seeing growth well below forecasts after an industry activity report highlighted the sluggishness. The Japanese All Industries Activity measure was expected to show a 1.9% growth in output and demand in the Japanese industrial sector; actual results were posted as 1.5%.

The downturn only underlines what many traders already knew about the Japanese economy; mainly, that it has been experiencing a rather steady decline since March. Hopes for a rebound were seen growing these past few trading days and today's industry activity report likely does not upset such optimism. The JPY is still affected more by risk aversion and as it is expected to grow this week, traders may look to be going long on the yen.

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Canadian Retail Sales Report Dismal, CAD Weakened

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 11:14 PM PDT

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Investors who were anticipating a modest growth in retail sales in Canada today were found in disarray after news revealed almost zero growth in that sector of the northern giant's economy.

Forecasts had called for approximately a half-percent growth in both the core and nominal readings. Actual results for both, however, came in at 0% and 0.3%, respectively. The stagnation has so far put a damper on the Canadian dollar's (CAD) recent uptick, causing many investors to place additional funds into safe haven assets.

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British Industrial Demand Experiencing Growth?

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 11:09 PM PDT

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The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) today published its diffusion index on industrial order expectations for June this morning and suggested there may be positive growth in industrial demand. The figure, which revealed only a mild uptick from the expectant contraction, signals the first turnaround in news regarding demand for manufactured goods in the region.

So far the news has been outshined by other factors in today's market, predominantly the vote on the Greece bailout, but it is a positive note in an otherwise ominous trading environment. Traders appear poised for minor short-taking on the British pound as a result, but are expected to turn bullish this week given several positive indicators for growth.

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ZEW Readings Show Confidence in Poor State

Posted: 21 Jun 2011 11:06 PM PDT

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Today's publications by ZEW (Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung) regarding consumer sentiment in Germany and the broader euro zone revealed regional confidence to be in stark decline this past month. Fraught with debt concerns and plummeting demand for manufactured goods, many consumers are rating their outlook much lower these days.

The news does not bode well for the euro zone as many analysts are anticipating a dismal second quarter. Rising energy costs and weakened demand have combined with interest rate pressures and debt concerns to form a four-front assault on regional and global growth. The news may boost risk aversion in the short-term, traders may also be on the lookout for short taking on stocks through the summer months.

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