FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

---

• U.S. Long-Term Purchases on Tap
• Disappointing Macro Overshadowed Good Corporate Earnings
• The Gamble – Decision Time for EUR/USD Traders
• Be Prepared! U.S. New Home Sales Report Tomorrow at 14:00 GMT
• EUR/USD Possibly Ready for an Upward Correction
• EUR/USD Hits 4-Year Low Following Trichet’s Speech
• Be Prepared! U.S. Retail Sales Tomorrow at 12:30 GMT
• Concerns Regarding Greek Bailout to Weaken the Euro
• ECB President Trichet Speech on Tap
• EUR/USD Recovers but Still Under Pressure

U.S. Long-Term Purchases on Tap Posted: 15 Aug 2010 10:09 PM PDT Last week’s trading session was characterized by the recovery of the U.S. dollar. The recovery took place as a batch of disappointing data from the U.S. economy has created speculations that a global economic recovery might be halted. As a result, the yen, which is considered to be a safe asset as well, strengthened, and energy prices, such as crude oil, dropped. If the negative data will continue to dominate this week as well, these trends are likely to precede, especially the bullish dollar. Traders are advised to follow the major publications, mainly from the U.S. and the euro-zone. Here are today’s leading news events: • 09:00 GMT, Euro-zone’s Consumer Price Indices (CPI) – The CPI is the main gauge of the region’s inflation. If the end result will reach above expectations for 1.7%, the euro might strengthen as a result. • 12:30 GMT, U.S. Empire State Manufacturing index – This is a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state, who are asked to rate their general business conditions. A positive data, above 8.1, might erase some of the dollar’s gains. • 13:00 GMT, TIC Long-Term Purchases – This indicator measures the difference between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens, to ones purchased by foreigners. If the end result will reach expectations for 35.3B, the dollar might strengthen further.

Disappointing Macro Overshadowed Good Corporate Earnings Posted: 29 Jul 2010 12:53 AM PDT Yesterday’s trading ended flat for the EUR/USD pair but volatility was high. Traders moved from selling the EUR before European session started, to buying the EUR before U.S. trading session started and eventually the pair finished near the day opening rate. The pair ranged $1.2965 to $1.3040. Any move below 1.2965, would signal a correction while any move above 1.3040 would signal another rally. Other currencies such as the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY are beginning to form correction signals. It is still early to decide if yesterday was a beginning of a correction or a single day of profit taking. Looking for today, lack of important news events is expected to keep trading calm as analysts’ learn yesterday’s data, but tomorrow more news from the U.S. should put more light on the economy. Volatility should rise toward next week which is the first week of August and hold plenty of macro data and important news events. Traders should start to plan trades and positions for next week as it is going have a lot of impact on currencies and we are likely to wildness large movements in prices. Here is a roundup of the day’s main economic indicators: • 12:30 GMT, U.S. Unemployment Claims – This report measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. If the end result will be lower than the expected 457,000 – the Dollar might rise against the majors.

The Gamble – Decision Time for EUR/USD Traders Posted: 10 Jun 2010 12:29 AM PDT This article is a little more time-sensitive than most traders are comfortable with, but it needs to be put forth in order to attempt providing the best advice possible. I’m of the opinion that the EUR/USD is in a position to “decide” what its price will be. I’m also of the opinion that this choice is at a level which may decide the future of the euro. Now when I say the EUR/USD is in a position to decide, I mean that traders have an opportunity to make a statement about its future, not that the EUR/USD is actually going to decide anything, being an ethereal object and all. We’ve witnessed an unprecedented drop in the value of the euro against its American counterpart. Seeing as the euro zone is in no position to be making gains, this drop was reasonable and expected. But we are now approaching dangerous waters. The euro is currently trading only 100 pips above its 2002 opening price, and that’s after correcting upward for the past few days. Meanwhile, safe-havens, like the USD, are still rising and we now have Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Board’s Chairman, claiming that the US will do all it can to prevent Europe’s economic woes from oozing across the Atlantic. This puts obvious pressure on the euro, which may struggle to survive if its value continues to plummet. A prominent argument being discussed is the viability of the euro zone to recuperate fully without tossing the euro into the scrap-heap of history. It has been said repeatedly that Greece would have been able to recover much quicker had it possessed its own sovereign currency. The same goes for Spain and Portugal. The weaker the euro gets, the story goes, the more pressure gets put on the region to take austerity measures, which are highly unpopular. The tougher things get in the struggling countries the more likely a radical politician is to get elected and take more “popular” measures, such as abandoning the euro instead of raising taxes and cutting jobs. Just watch the Dutch election as an example. So now the world has a choice. Do we keep the euro and hold off its decline, or do we continue to take bets that Europe won’t recover anytime soon and watch the euro fall into obscurity? Technical Analysis - The chart below shows the price movements of the EUR/USD for the past few months. - Each number represents a similar decision point for traders, and each time thus far we’ve seen a choice to sell the euro. - Now here we sit at number 4 and the choice is going to be made in the next day or two about where we see the euro’s future. - If we bank on historic price movements it becomes all too reasonable to assume a continued drop in value. But the importance of the current psychological support level may outweigh many sentiments about selling. Today’s interest rate decisions throughout the region may help determine the direction of this pair. Let us hope the euro can break out of this bearish channel and hold tight through the remainder of this crisis. EUR/USD Daily Chart

Be Prepared! U.S. New Home Sales Report Tomorrow at 14:00 GMT Posted: 25 May 2010 04:34 AM PDT We at ForexYard encourage our customers to get involved in the most intense market events. As such, we think you should know that the U.S. New Home Sales figure is expected tomorrow, May 26th, at 14:00 GMT, and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Existing Home Sales report, please read below. What is the U.S New Home Sales Report? The U.S New Home Sales report is a leading economic indicator used to measure the number of new homes that were sold during the previous month. It is a leading indicator of housing demand and economic health because the sale of a new home impacts a wide variety of consumer spending figures, such as renovations for the home purchased, and mortgages being taken out to purchase the home. Since new homes sales continue to be a very important indicator for the recovery of the U.S housing sector, this report tends to have an extremely large impact on the forex market. How this Survey Can Help the USD Expectations for this month are suggesting that the U.S. New Home Sales report will show that home sales rose to 420K in April, reflecting a 9K increase from March, indicating the U.S. recovery was strengthening before the European debt crisis rattled global financial markets. While the recovery from the worst housing slump since the Great Depression has been uneven, indications mount that American people are beginning to buy more homes and we are experiencing the early stages of a lasting recovery. A figure on par or above expectations will likely boost the USD further, particularly in light of concerns the European recovery will lag the U.S recovery. An exceptionally good result may push the EUR/USD pair below the previous low of $1.2144. How this Survey can Hurt the USD If the actual figure is lower than forecast, traders are likely to see the USD depreciate against its currency pairs and crosses. The current sharp erosion in financial conditions, brought on by the continuous Euro-Zone debt crisis, has left investors highly susceptible to disappointments for the path of economic recovery. With the current revival of the U.S housing sector being very shaky and largely driven by the timing of a government homebuyer tax credit worth as much as $8,000, results lower than forecasted may rattle investors confidence in the U.S economy. The USD might depreciate, particularly against the Yen, the ultimate safe heaven currency.

EUR/USD Possibly Ready for an Upward Correction Posted: 18 May 2010 12:31 AM PDT The EUR/USD hit a four year low during yesterday’s trading day, before recovering and ending positive at the end of a volatile trading session. The EUR managed to regain back part of its losses against the Dollar after declining for six consecutive days. Some analysts believe that the EUR/USD pair has hit a bottom and is now ready for a short term recovery. The answer in regards to the EUR recovery may lie within today’s macro reports from Europe. Looking at the EUR/USD pair analysts fear that Germany, Europe’s largest economy, deteriorated this month. EUR/USD declined during early trading hours today. In case these reports fail to raise investors confident the Euro could end its recovery started yesterday, reaching new lows by the end of today’s session. Traders are advised to follow these economic publications: • 09:00 GMT, EUR – German Economic Sentiment. This is a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts which are asked to rate relative 6-month economic outlook for Germany. If the end result will turn lower than last month’s result of 53.0, as expected, it is likely to weaken the EUR against the Dollar. • 12:30 GMT, USD – Building Permits  This report measures construction activity. If the end result will be better than expected, above 0.68M, it would further support the USD as the U.S. housing market is an important indictor for economic growth. • 12:30 GMT, USD – Producer Price Index (PPI) This report is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. It may serve as an indictor for consumer price index which is due later this week. Last month data came at 0.7% rise, but this month expectations are for a 0.1% rise. Better than expected result will support the Dollar

EUR/USD Hits 4-Year Low Following Trichet’s Speech Posted: 16 May 2010 10:39 PM PDT The Euro-Zone’s crisis continues to impact the forex market. This week’s trading begins with an extraordinary kick-off as the EUR/USD plunges to a 4-year low. The EUR/USD dropped to as low as the 1.2233 level, in what doesn’t seems to be the last stop in the Euro’s bearish voyage. After the EUR/USD reached an 18-month low, it seems as if a technical correction might be in place. However a speech by the ECB President, Jean-Claude Trichet, has pushed the Euro further down. Trichet said that there need to be major improvements to prevent bad behavior, to ensure effective implementation of the recommendations made by peers and ensure real and effective sanctions in the case of breaches. This speech had put extra pressure over the Euro, and the result is listed above. Traders are advised to follow every development on this issue, and also to follow these economic publications: • 12:30 GMT, U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index – This is a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state that are asked to rate their general business conditions. If the end result will reach above last month’s result of 31.9, it is likely to support the Dollar. • 13:00 GMT, U.S. Long-Term Purchases – This report measures the difference between foreign securities purchased by U.S. citizens to U.S. securities purchased by foreigners. If the end result will beat expectations for 50.5B, then the Dollar is likely to rise as a result.

Be Prepared! U.S. Retail Sales Tomorrow at 12:30 GMT Posted: 13 May 2010 09:59 AM PDT We at ForexYard, encourage our customers to get involved in the most intense market events. As such, we think you should know that the U.S. Retail Sales report is expected tomorrow, May 14th, at 12:30 (GMT), and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Retail Sales, please read below. What is the U.S. Retail Sales Report? U.S. Retail Sales is a leading economic indicator used to measure the percentage change in the total value of sales at the retail level during the previous month. It is a leading indicator of economic health because the report reflects a wide variety of consumer spending, such as restaurants, consumer goods, and automobiles. Consumer sentiment can also be derived from this survey in order to gauge the outlook on the U.S. economy. This report is the earliest indicator of consumer spending released by the U.S. Census Bureau. An additional report released at the same time is the Core Retail Sales report, which does not include sales of automobiles. When used together, the reports paint a picture of the state of the U.S. consumer. This survey predominantly helps to analyze market trends and to determine the direction of the U.S. economy. If the Survey Comes Inline with Market Forecasts Expectations for this month are suggesting that the U.S. Retail Sales will rise by 0.3% in April, for a seventh straight month, pointing to a rebound in consumer spending that is broadening the recovery. The U.S. economy is currently in the midst of a solidifying economic recovery and April's Non Farm Payroll data which showed a long awaited increase in employment is likely boosting demand. Electronics stores may have led retailers last month as Apple Inc. sold at least 1 million iPads. A result inline with expectations will likely boost the Dollar further as it will intensify investors' belief that the world's largest economy is on a strong path to recovery. This will likely push the EUR/USD pair to further lows, possibly dropping another 50 – 70 pips. If the Survey Will Surprise With Bearishness If the actual figure is lower than forecasted, traders are likely to see the USD depreciate against its currency pairs and crosses. The volatile two trading weeks we have just experienced concluded with significant strength for the USD. The increase in April sales may have been less broad-based than in prior months. Chain stores reported the smallest increase in monthly sales since November. Furthermore, the debt crisis in Europe also raises the risk households will restrain spending. In this turn of events, the EUR/USD might correct itself up slightly, possibly gaining around 50 pips.

Concerns Regarding Greek Bailout to Weaken the Euro Posted: 02 May 2010 11:06 PM PDT This week began with a sharp appreciation of the Euro, following the Euro-Zone’s $146 billion rescue plan for the Greek economy. However, once the optimistic clouds scattered, the concerns regarding the Euro-Zone’s future have dominated the market. Currently, despite the Greek aid package, investors have great concerns regarding the Euro-Zone’s ability to control the current gloomy situation. The effects of the enormous aid package in addition to the uncertainty of the Irish, Portuguese and Spanish economies have continued to put downward pressure on the Euro. As a result, the Euro dropped over 150 pips from a 1-week high at the 1.3358 level. As for today, traders should first and foremost follow all updates regarding the Greek economy. Moreover, for the near future there are no doubts that this issue will continue to have an immense influence on the market. Here are today leading news publications: • 12:30 GMT, US Personal Spending – This report measures the change in the total value of expenditures by consumers. The consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. Current expectations are that the personal spending in the US grew by 0.7% on March. If the actual result will be similar, it is likely to strengthen the Dollar. • 14:00 GMT, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – It is a survey of purchasing managers, who are asked to rate their current business conditions. If the end result will beat expectations for 60.0, the USD is likely to be boosted as a result.

ECB President Trichet Speech on Tap Posted: 26 Apr 2010 12:29 AM PDT After a week on which the Dollar strengthened vs. the Euro, and commodities such as crude oil and gold dropped, towards the end of the week, a reversal took place. Currently, both the Euro and crude oil seems to be in the midst of a bullish correction. There also appears to be a connection between the two instruments, and it seems that as long as crude oil will continue to strengthen, the EUR/USD pair will rise in accordance. Traders should also wait for any update regarding the Greece debt crisis. For several weeks that the market is mostly influenced from this issue and every update tends to have an instant impact on the Euro. It is very reasonable to think that until Greece will provide concrete data that the fiscal crisis is under control, the Euro will fail to truly recover vs. the majors. Today, the only significant news event looks to be ECB President Trichet Speech, which is expected at 16:30 GMT. Trichet is due to deliver a speech titled “Global Convergence Today” at the Council on Foreign Relations, in New York. Trichet is likely to discuss future monetary policy of the European Central Bank, and large volatility might be observed during his speech.

EUR/USD Recovers but Still Under Pressure Posted: 22 Feb 2010 04:51 PM PST Although the EUR/USD cross has recovered from last week’s 9 month low beneath $1.35, concerns about heavily indebted Euro-Zone countries continue to weakened the single currency and market players bet that further losses are likely. The market will now focus on several major releases coming from the Euro-Zone and the U.S that will affect the direction of this pair for today. 9:00 GMT EUR German Ifo Business Climate - This major survey of 7000 businesses is rising steadily, contrary to other European surveys. Last month's 95.8 score is expected to be followed by 96.2, continuing the steady rise of this index month by month. - This wide survey has a strong impact on the Euro. Contrary to the ZEW report that is recently weak, this indicator has been rising steadily in the past year, edging up each time. It tends to create a hefty market impact upon release and may provide support for the EUR. 14:00 GMT EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate - Survey of about 6,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months. - This survey from the small country of Belgium reflects the situation quite well – steady improvement, but still negative. - It's predicted to edge up from -7 to -4.9 this time, after disappointing last month. A positive number will boost the Euro 15:00 GMT USD CB Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence impacts sales and the whole economy. In the past three months, this indicator rose from the low level it fell to, and also revisions to previous releases have been to the upside. - This time, it's predicted to drop from 55.9 to 55.0 points and will have a wide impact on the market.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex Trading Education : Forex Trading Blog by FOREXYARD » EUR/USD trading To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610