FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog | |
- FX Winners and Losers from Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls Report
- EUR/CAD Expected to go Bearish
- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Tap
- EUR/USD – Technical Update
| FX Winners and Losers from Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls Report Posted: 08 Oct 2010 08:33 AM PDT
Following the release of a worse than expected US jobs report that showed the economy dropped 95,000 jobs in the previous month there were players that fared well, such as the euro, and others that fared not so well such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. For the fourth consecutive month, the US showed a decline in payrolls from the key Non-Farm Payrolls report. A breakdown of the numbers show that in the month of September, private payrolls expanded moderately by +64K, on expectations of +75K, though this was the lowest increase since May. The unemployment rate held firm at 9.6%. Public sector jobs were down sharply by -76K. The initial knee jerk reaction saw equities head lower and the dollar strengthening. However, an hour after the release of the jobs report, the S&P 500 was back in the black and the EUR/USD had erased almost all of its losses for the day. Traders who are shorting the dollar should be feeling comfortable as the US dollar index is down today by -0.16%. The weak employment data may also be the straw that broke the camel's back, pushing the Fed to launch another round of quantitative easing during their November meeting. Winners: euro and shorting the dollar. Current trends appear to be continuing as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc push on, both strengthening against the dollar. The USD/JPY moved below yesterday's 15-year low to a new price of 81.72. Continued intervention talk circle the FX community as Japanese government officials cannot shy away from intervention comments. The all-time low of 79.70 for the USD/JPY appears to be insight. The USD/CHF also headed lower past its all-time low and is trading near the 0.96 level. Both the Japanese and the Swiss governments would like to have some respite from their currencies that continue to strengthen. However, the market feels otherwise. Losers: yen and Swiss franc. Let's also not forget that the person who is not coming out ahead following the jobs report is the American citizen who is out of work. |
| EUR/CAD Expected to go Bearish Posted: 07 Oct 2010 11:55 PM PDT
A bullish move in the EUR/CAD cross hasn't received much support as of late. Below, I will demonstrate that the EUR/CAD pair has already commenced a downward trend for today, and the cross may tumble another 40-100 pips during the day. Traders are strongly advised to take advantage of the trend at an early stage. • Below is the 4-hour chart of the EUR/CAD currency pair. • The technical indicators that are used are the Williams Percent Ranges, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Stochastic Slow. • Point 1: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction. • Point 2: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the overbought territory, signaling downward pressure. • Point 3: The Williams Percent Range shows that this pair was heavily over-bought peaked near the highest mark it could reach, and then turned a corner and now stands in a bearish posture. EUR/CAD 4-Hour Chart |
| Posted: 07 Oct 2010 11:34 PM PDT
Yesterday's trading was a bit surprising with its intensity. After the EUR/USD reached an 8-month high, positive employment data managed to reverse the trend and brought the pair below the 1.3860 level. Similar developments were observed with crude oil and gold as well. Both commodities were boosted with the dollar's weakness; gold reached an all-time high of $1,364 an ounce, and crude reached a 5-month high of $84.40 a barrel. However as soon as the dollar began erasing losses, gold promptly fell to $1,324 an ounce and crude dropped to $80.95 a barrel. Today is a very irregular day as heavy volatility is almost guaranteed. The catalyst for the unusual volatility is of course the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls release. Here are today's leading economic publications: • 08:30 GMT, British Producer Price Index (PPI) Input – This indicator is considered to be one of the most reliable inflation gauges in the U.K. Following 4 consecutive months of negative figures, analysts expected a 0.3% rise for September. Such a result is likely to support the British pound. |
| Posted: 07 Oct 2010 02:54 PM PDT
Now that the EUR/USD has closed above a retracement level from the December 2009 high, a bearish sign has developed on the daily chart. This may allow for a consolidation pattern to form or a worst case scenario a reversal of the uptrend. A close above 1.3890 the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was a significant milestone in the recovery of the pair. Now that this technical barrier has been achieved, new resistance levels are found. Resistance should be located at the December 2009 lows near 1.4210 (R1) and the mid-January high of 1.4580 (R2). Support for the EUR/USD will be found at the March high of 1.3820 (S1). Today the EUR/USD pushed as high as 1.4028 only to lose those gains and fall as low as 1.3856. The pair has come back and is currently trading at its opening day price. This could be a bearish signal. If the price closes at its currently level, the daily candlestick will form a longed legged doji which may signal a pause in the uptrend or at the worst a reversal.
|
| You are subscribed to email updates from Forex Trading Education : Forex Trading Blog by FOREXYARD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
No comments:
Post a Comment