FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

---

• Gold Hits Record High
• Forex Traders Await US Manufacturing Data
• Dollar Will Attempt to Reverse Losses Today
• USD/JPY – Declining Wedge Pattern
• Swiss KOF Barometer on Tap Today
• Crude Oil – Range Trading Continues
• EUR/USD – New Price Target
• JPY May Gain from Industry Growth; BOJ May Intervene as a Result

Gold Hits Record High Posted: 01 Oct 2010 12:22 AM PDT Gold hit a record high of $1,315 an ounce this week, extending a two-week rally of fresh records on concerns over an economic recovery. Gold has made a significant upward correction, which can be directly correlated with the bullish trend of the EUR/USD cross. As I will demonstrate below, the price of gold may very well be heading for a reversal. This recent activity has raised the stakes for traders. From here on, the forex and commodity markets will see very high volatility indeed. • The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Williams Percent Range. • Point 1: There is a "doji" candlestick that has formed on the chart, indicating that a reversal should take place. • Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction. • Point 3: The RSI signals that the price of this pair currently floats in the over-bought territory, indicating downward pressure. • Point 4: The Williams Percent Ranges is showing that this pair is heavily over-sold and may be experiencing strong upward pressure. Gold Daily Chart

Forex Traders Await US Manufacturing Data Posted: 30 Sep 2010 07:36 PM PDT Today's mover in the forex market will likely be the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The key industrial data from the US may shape today's trading which is the first for the month of October. Today's Market News Events: CHF Retail Sales y/y 07:15 GMT Expected 3.2%. Previous 4.7%. Swiss retails sales are expected to grow less than last year, but any rise above 3.7% should continue the USD/CHF downtrend as the pair makes its way to the 2008 low of 0.9632. GBP Manufacturing PMI 08:30 GMT Expected 53.9. Previous 54.3. Everyone is expecting the British economy to crumble as the new government's budget cuts come up for debate. But the cuts shouldn't be felt until 2011. The GBP/USD rally looks to have stalled at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the November 2009 high at 1.5870. The pair could head lower to its support level at the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.5560. USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 14:00 GMT Expected 54.6. Previous 56.3. The headline news event for today's trading. Better than expected data could continue the recent trend of dollar weakness. The EUR/USD could rise to the resistance level of 1.3820.

Dollar Will Attempt to Reverse Losses Today Posted: 30 Sep 2010 12:29 AM PDT The EUR experienced one of its most bullish trading days in recent weeks on Wednesday. The EUR made significant gains against many of its most traded currency pairs, including the USD and JPY. Another developing trend is the recovery of gold. Since the dollar began dropping against its major currency rivals, gold has risen further and further. Currently trading around $1308, gold could reach $1320 an ounce by the end of the day, should the dollar continue to drop. 12:30 GMT: U.S Unemployment Claims • This indicator reflects the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. • Better-than-expected results may help the dollar recover some of yesterday’s losses against some of its crosses such as the EUR. • If the results turn out to be lower than forecast, the dollar may record a fairly bearish session in today’s trading. 18:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speech • Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak regarding the US monetary policy summit that is currently taking place at System Town Hall Meeting with Educators in Washington DC. • This speech is very important as is to create dollar volatility. • Traders are advised to watch closely, as this is likely to set the pace of the dollar going into today’s trading.

USD/JPY – Declining Wedge Pattern Posted: 29 Sep 2010 08:22 AM PDT A distinct declining wedge pattern has formed on the monthly USD/JPY chart that could signal a reversal of the downward trend. The wedge pattern is defined as a triangle pattern with both trend lines that are pointed in the same direction. This falling wedge has both lines pointed to the downside with the upward boundary line falling at a faster slope than the lower boundary. When a declining wedge pattern forms, it indicates the shorts are weakening in strength and perhaps the bulls will take over with a reversal of the trend. Because this is a declining wedge, we should expect the price to breakout to the upside. As the long term trend is clearly to the downside, traders will need to be extra patient before taking a long position. There is a need to wait for a clear signal that a breakout to the upside has occurred. Next month the price could test the resistance level at 90.80. A close above this on a monthly basis would confirm the breakout. However, there is always a chance the pair will surprise the market and break to the downside. Traders should eye a breach below the 82.80 level for a sign of a continuation of the downtrend.

Swiss KOF Barometer on Tap Today Posted: 29 Sep 2010 12:32 AM PDT The US dollar continued to trade bearish against its main currency rivals yesterday, as worse than predicted economic indicators renewed suspicions that the Fed will soon begin a stimulus program to boost the greenback. Following the disappointing news, the USD/CHF pair fell to its lowest level since March of 2008. Today, news from both Switzerland and the US may give the dollar a chance to recoup some of its earlier losses. Here is a roundup of the day’s main news events: 09:30 GMT: CHF KOF Economic Barometer The KOF Economic Barometer is a monthly indicator designed to predict the direction the Swiss economy will take over the next six months. It is widely considered to be a highly significant economic release, and consistently leads to volatility among CHF pairs. This month, analysts are forecasting a slightly lower figure from last month’s release. Should the barometer come in around its predicted level 2.12, the greenback may be able to regain some of the substantial losses it took against the franc yesterday. 14:30 GMT: USD Crude Oil Inventories After seeing some fairly significant gains last week, crude prices have fluctuated over the past few days. Today’s US inventory figure may help oil prices move up again. Most analysts are forecasting a decrease in US stockpiles from last week, which if true, means that demand is up. Typically higher demand equals higher prices. Should the report come in at its predicted level of around -0.4M, traders may want to enter into some long positions with oil.

Crude Oil – Range Trading Continues Posted: 29 Sep 2010 12:27 AM PDT For the past 3 weeks crude oil prices have been fluctuating between $73.50 a barrel to $78.00 a barrel. This means that the market has acknowledged that for the time being, this price represents the real value of crude oil. Currently, crude oil is floating in the middle of the range, trading at $76.60 a barrel. • The chart below is the crude oil 4-hour chart by ForexYard. • The flat form of the MACD is a great reflection of the steady trading of crude oil. Once the MACD will begin moving towards a certain direction, it will signal that the range might be coming to an end. • In the meantime, a bullish cross of the Slow Stochastic is indicating that crude oil might see a bullish move today. • The next significant resistant level is located at the $77.15 price. If crude oil will cross the $77.15 level, it is likely to reach towards the $78.00 as well. • If crude will fail to cross the $77.15 level, it might drop to the $76.00 support level. • The next support levels are at the $75.50, $74.60 and $73.55 levels. • Traders are also advised to pay special attention at 14:30 GMT, when the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report is scheduled to be released. Usually this release creates heavy volatility in crude oil trading, and traders should be prepared.

EUR/USD – New Price Target Posted: 28 Sep 2010 02:30 AM PDT The EUR/USD is currently testing a technical resistance level that once breached should solidify the rising trend and a retracement of the December to June bearish trend. During the Japanese trading session on Monday the EUR/USD tested and failed to break 1.3510 (R1), the 50% retracement level of the previous bearish trend that spanned from December to June. Following the failed breach the pair has fallen to the price of 1.3400. Should the EUR/USD close above the 50% level, the next technical target would be found at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3890. Support for the EUR/USD comes in at the height of the June to August bullish move at 1.3330 (S1).

JPY May Gain from Industry Growth; BOJ May Intervene as a Result Posted: 27 Sep 2010 08:13 PM PDT The US dollar has been declining steadily against all of its currency rivals since the opening of this week's market. As of early Asian trading this morning, the buck has seen a view positive corrections, but little which would indicate a reversal to yesterday's movements. Today's economic news may add a boost to the greenback if the American consumer confidence figure at 14:00 GMT comes above expectations. Here is a recap of the day's events: 8:30 GMT: GBP – Current Account - This report measures the difference between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter. It has a direct correlation with the demand of the country's currency, the British pound. Current expectations are for a reading of -9.6 billion pounds. If the actual figure is more positive, the pound sterling could see some bullish movement today. 14:00 GMT: USD – CB Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board's (CB) Consumer Confidence indicator is a gauge of economic sentiment among private households in America. It surveys roughly 5,000 households about their confidence regarding the economy and has a positive correlation with consumer spending, and thus demand for the greenback. This report has maintained a reading between 50.0 and 60.0 for the past few months, if today's report falls within this range, as it is expected to do, then the impact on the greenback may be positive, but minimal. 23:50 GMT: JPY – Tankan Manufacturing Index - This report is one of the few pieces of economic data which Japan releases publically. It is a measure of the health of Japan's manufacturing sector. A reading over 0.0 is a sign that manufacturing is healthy and growing; below 0.0 indicates the opposite. Expectations are for an increase from a reading of 1.0 to 7.0 from the previous release, which could lead to further strengthening of the JPY, and therefore has the potential to provoke the Bank of Japan (BOJ) into further monetary intervention.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex Trading Education : Forex Trading Blog by FOREXYARD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610