FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog | |
| Posted: 04 Nov 2010 02:40 AM PDT
Following an upward correction in the value of the USD/CHF, the pair is resuming its long term down trend. The long term trend line from the last bearish trend is now serving as a support level. A breach below this could signal further weakness in the pair. Looking at the USD/CHF daily chart, the pair underwent a bullish correction during the last two weeks of October. The pair broke the previous downward sloping trend line and rose as high as 0.9970 but failed to close above the resistance level at 0.9930. From this point the pair has renewed its downward trend and yesterday made a close below the short term rising trend line of the bullish correction. This may signal an end to the upward movement in the pair and further gains for the Swiss franc. Momentum is to the downside as shown by both the sharp decline in price over the last 3 days and the Momentum (14) line that has a negative slope and is now crossing below the 100 level which can be interpreted as a sell signal. Support for the pair is found at the previous long term bearish trend line at 0.9650. A close below the previous trend line could propel the pair to the swing low on the daily chart at 0.9460. Resistance is found at the pivot of 0.9730, the 50-day simple moving average at 0.9815, and in a range between the pivot at 0.9930 and the height of the correction at 0.9970.
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| Fundamentals Continue to Drive Forex Markets with European Interest Rate Releases Posted: 03 Nov 2010 11:57 PM PDT
Important market movers await forex traders today with US Unemployment Claims, British and European Rate decisions followed by central bank news conferences. Here's an outlook on the most influential events that will shape forex trading this Thursday. 12:00 GMT: GBP – Official Bank Rate The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee was split three ways during its October meeting. Seven of its members voted for no change to interest rates and no additional stimulus spending, while Andrew Sentance voted again to raise rates from 0.5% to 0.75% and Adam Posen, voted to see quantitative easing called for a further £50B to be put into the QE. It is unlikely that the BOE will declare a rate hike leaving the rate at 0.50%. Any outcome will rock the pound, and a statement from the central bank will have a very strong impact. 12:30 GMT: USD – Unemployment Claims An encouraging drop in this major weekly indicator gave a positive shift in the market last week with a better than expected reading of 434K from 455K in the week before. A small rise to 437K is expected to continue the optimistic trend strengthening the USD. 12:45 GMT: EUR – Minimum Bid Rate Last time the ECB decided to keep rates unchanged at 1.00% and will likely do so again to prevent endangering the EUR/USD and upsetting economy. The press conference, held 45 minutes later, might include interesting comments from the ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet, especially as another member, Axel Weber, calls to end the bond buying program and to begin thinking of raising the rates. |
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