FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog | |
- Dollar Stronger and Crude Oil Weaker After Morning Trading
- EUR/USD – Where Does the Pair Go from here
- Dollar Rebounds Strongly against Turkish Lira
- Safe Haven Currencies on the Rise
- Asian Slowdown Sparks Dollar Rally
| Dollar Stronger and Crude Oil Weaker After Morning Trading Posted: 17 Nov 2010 03:52 AM PST
Markets were quiet this morning during the European session as Ireland is in the midst of talks with the EU and the IMF. This follows yesterday's gains in the dollar and pullbacks in equities and commodities. Talks began this morning between Ireland and delegations from the EU and the IMF. The discussions surround a potential bailout for Irish banks that are teetering on the edge of insolvency and could push the Irish government into default. An aid package is expected to be pieced together to prevent a default by the banks or by Ireland. Despite the bailout talks, the EUR has seen little support as the EUR/USD is trading lower at 1.3490. Yesterday the EUR/USD lost almost 1% and closed at the 1.3505 level for the first time since September. Equities were also down sharply with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 1.59%. Spot crude oil plunged 2.6%. During the upcoming New York trading session traders will be eyeing the Irish bailout talks as well as US economic data set to be released. US Core CPI is due to be released at 13:30 GMT with market expectations set for a rise of barely 0.1%. The weekly crude oil inventory report is also on tap for 15:30 GMT. The government's report has the ability to support the price of spot crude that is trading lower on the day at $82.10. |
| EUR/USD – Where Does the Pair Go from here Posted: 17 Nov 2010 03:10 AM PST
Looking at the daily chart a few major Fibonacci numbers stand out and may provide the next target for the EUR/USD. Following a breach below the rising support line off of the October lows, the EUR/USD switched from a consolidation phase and into a new downtrend. From September to November the EUR/USD made a strong bullish move from the level of 1.2643 to a height of 1.4281. A Fibonacci retracement shows the pair has already used both the 38.2% level as a resistance and the 50% retracement level as a support. Judging from this price behavior it is reasonable to assume that the pair will continue lower to the 61.8% retracement level which lies at a price of 1.3270. The August high of 1.3330 should stand out as a significant support level on the way as well as the rising trend line from the June and September lows.
|
| Dollar Rebounds Strongly against Turkish Lira Posted: 16 Nov 2010 11:24 PM PST
Following with the pattern of growing USD strength, it appears the Turkish lira can be added to the list. The USD/TRY has risen 0.5% over the past few days following a move by Ankara to curb liquidity by raising bank reserve requirements from 5.5% to 6.0%. Bank lending in Turkey has grown at an average of 0.8% per week since January and there is a growing concern that banks may be overextending themselves in an effort to fuel growth. The result of this latest move by Turkey's central bank was a sharp depreciation of the lira against the dollar. The pair has moved from a price of 1.4008 just two weeks ago, upward to a current price of 1.4616. We can see on the chart below that the pair reached a significant support level near 1.4012, but failed to breach. The RSI and Stochastic (slow) both recently displayed bullish indicators and are currently both moving in a bullish direction, which suggests growing upward momentum for the pair. If we follow the signals being shown on this chart, and support it with the fundamental devaluation taking place in Turkey, we can assume that this pair will be targeting the 50% Fibonacci level near a price of 1.4804 over the next few trading days. If momentum remains constant beyond that level, we could also see an extension of these bullish gains upward into the 1.50's. USD/TRY – Weekly Chart |
| Safe Haven Currencies on the Rise Posted: 16 Nov 2010 10:55 PM PST
Safe haven currencies, like the U.S. dollar, experienced one of the more bullish trading days in recent weeks yesterday. The USD and JPY made significant gains against many of their most traded currency pairs, such as the GBP and EUR. The price of crude oil fell 3% to $83.00 yesterday, extending hefty losses from the previous session as economic concerns sent investors into safer investments. Today, crude oil is set to be in the spotlight again with important publications from U.S. Here are today's leading events: 13:30 GMT: USD – U.S. Building Permits • This indicator reflects the annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month. • This indicator reflects the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. |
| Asian Slowdown Sparks Dollar Rally Posted: 16 Nov 2010 12:06 PM PST
Fears of Asian governments putting the brakes on their economies to ward off inflation hit markets today driving equities lower and the dollar higher against the major currencies, especially the euro. Commodities also suffered a tough trading day falling sharply. The greenback was stronger today as traders preferred the dollar versus the other major currencies while selling equities at the same time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell the most in a month as the index briefly traded below the 11000 level. The Dow finished the day lower by 1.65%. The cause of the drop in equities is due to fears of the Chinese government taking moves to slow the growth rate in the world's hottest economy and to stem rising inflation. South Korea also raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points. The Federal Reserve has come under heavy scrutiny from both the private sector and those in the US government for the Fed's quantitative easing program. This leads some economists to predict a scale back of the Fed's quantitative easing program. However, today US PPI for the previous month rose by 0.4% on expectations of a rise of 0.9%. This underscores just how close the US economy is from a state of deflation. Following the Chinese slowdown fears and criticism of the Fed, the dollar put in a strong trading day against the majors today. The EUR/USD broke below the psychological 1.3500 level and traded as low as 1.3460, a level that coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the September low to the November high. The GBP/USD traded as low as 1.5840 where the pair found support from a short term trend line that extends higher from the mid-September and October lows. The USD/CHF is pressing the 0.9970 level, the height from the previous bullish correction in October. Gold and spot crude oil are also down sharply with spot gold falling to $1,330 and spot crude oil lower at $82.60. Spot crude oil found support at a previous channel line running down from the October highs. |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Forex Trading Education : Forex Trading Blog by FOREXYARD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
No comments:
Post a Comment