Tuesday, November 30, 2010

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

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Euro Gives Back Early Gains; 50% Fib in Play

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 03:56 AM PST

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London traders continued their assault on the euro following earlier gains in the 16-nation currency during the Asian hours. A key Fibonacci retracement may be reached before the end of today's New York trading.

A weekend announcement signaling an agreement by Ireland to accept financial aid generated interest in the euro at the opening of the Japanese trading session. Ireland is set to receive a bailout package worth 85 billion euros from the EU and IMF.

This helped the EUR/USD climb to an intraday high of 1.3300. However, support for the euro quickly faded as the European markets opened and the pair fell to its lowest level in three months. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.3170. Weakness in the euro was felt against the Swiss franc with the EUR/CHF trading at 1.3180, down from an opening day price of 1.3280.

The Irish acceptance of bailout funds reduces some pressure on the indebted nation that stems of the government's decision to guarantee failing Irish banks. But questions still remain how the Irish political landscape will look with the threat of a crumbling government coalition.

Other European nations also remain susceptible to rising national debts. The nations of Portugal, Spain and Italy are amongst the larger EU members with staunch fiscal problems. Recent headlines show EU institutions are attempting to convince Portugal to accept bailout funds before another financial crisis erupts in Europe.

A lack of economic data on the calendar should leave the European debt crisis firmly in the spotlight during today's New York trading session. Further euro weakness may be seen as a breach below the support level from September 19th at 1.3160 could propel the EUR/USD lower to the 50% retracement level of the June to November move at 1.3080.

EURUSD_Daily

USD/JPY Looks to Correct Gains

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 01:11 AM PST

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The USD/JPY pair saw quite a consistent bullish trend during the past month. The pair gained about 400 pips during the last four weeks, rising from the 80.20 level up to the 84.20 level on Friday. However, after the pair failed to breach through the 84.20 level it began correcting gains, and is now trading near the 83.90 level. The bearish correction is likely to extend today, with potential to reach the 83.00 level.

• The chart below is the USD/JPY 4-hour chart by ForexYard.
• There is a very distinct bearish channel formed on the 4-hour chart, and the pair is now floating in its bottom.
• The pair recently reached as high as the 84.20 level, yet this appears to have initiated a mild bearish correction.
• The Slow Stochastic has just completed a bearish cross above the 80-line, indicating that a bearish correction might take place.
• In addition, the RSI is now pointing down, reaching towards the 70-line. If the RSI will cross the 70-line, it is likely to validate the bearish move.
• The next support levels are located at the 83.80, 83.50 and 83.00 levels.
• The next resistance levels are found at the 84.20, 84.90 and 85.30 levels.

USD JPY

USD Bullish on Euro Zone Woes, Korean Tensions

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 10:18 PM PST

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Fresh indications of trouble throughout the euro zone's periphery sparked another wave of dollar positions, pushing the USD higher against most of its currency counterparts. The rising tensions on the Korean peninsula added to fears of impending crisis. Safe-haven buy-ins appear to have risen Friday before market closing, but today's news may bring some strength back to Europe.

Here is a roundup of today's leading events:

9:30 GMT: GBP – Net Lending to Individuals

This report measures the total change in net value for new credit extended to consumers. It is a monthly report which carries a referential impact on consumer spending, sentiment, and economic growth. If this figure grows as expected, the pound may see some recovery against its primary counterparts in the hours after this report is published.

This Week: USD – Treasury Currency Report

This report was initially scheduled to be published today, but sources indicate it may be postponed due to recent global tensions. It could be released sometime later this week, or as early as next week. It is a release published twice per year which provides a detailed overview of foreign exchange rate policies, economic outlook and conditions, as well as a recap of government actions taken globally over the past 6 months. The report tends to drive volatility during and after its release, but has no predictable impact on direction or valuation. This is a report forex traders will want to keep an eye on.

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