FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog | |
- Weekly Commodity Outlook
- Crude Oil- Technical Signal
- GBP/JPY- Technical Update
- EUR/USD Reaches Retracement Target
- Egyptian Unrest Boosts Crude Oil, Gold and the Yen
| Posted: 31 Jan 2011 08:24 AM PST
Crude Oil Crude oil recovered, gaining more than 4% on Jan. 28, amid concern that unrest in Egypt could spread to other regional producers. Prices recouped losses sustained earlier last week after Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said OPEC members may boost supplies as demand rises. The commodity had slipped as much as 2% Jan. 24 after Saudi Arabia's al-Naimi said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would "meet any increase in oil demand to maintain the supply-demand balance." As for the week ahead, traders’ attention should be devoted to all developments from the Middle East, as this is likely to continue to play a leading role in commodities trading. Traders should take under consideration that as long as the unrest in the region remain, crude prices might be further supported. Gold Gold fell on Monday after posting its largest daily gain in eight weeks on Friday and while the market did encounter some safe-haven buying on the back of the protests in Egypt, this was expected to be temporary. Gold is set for its worst monthly performance since December 2009, driven down by the improving tone of some key U.S. economic data, growing investor confidence and a near-record decline in holdings of metal in exchange-traded funds. |
| Posted: 31 Jan 2011 06:04 AM PST
Crude oil prices rose significantly in the week and peaked at $90.70 a barrel. And now, there appears to be a recent bearish cross on the 8-hour chart's Stochastic (slow) and MACD, highlighting significant downward momentum building on this commodity's price. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has the price floating in the over-bought region, suggesting that more pressure is on the way. Forex traders may want to take this opportunity to catch the downward correction on crude oil, which appears to be imminent.
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| Posted: 31 Jan 2011 04:17 AM PST
The GBP has dropped significantly versus the JPY in the last week, and it is currently traded around 130.60. And now as evident in the data, the daily chart is giving bullish signals, indicating that GBP/JPY pair might go up, as a bullish cross has taken place on the Slow Stochastic and the cross may raise another 50-100 pips in the coming 2 days. Traders are strongly advised to take advantage of the trend at an early stage. Therefore, why not open long positions at an excellent price? • The next resistance levels are found at the 130.90, 131.20 and 131.40 levels.
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| EUR/USD Reaches Retracement Target Posted: 31 Jan 2011 12:30 AM PST
With textbook precision the EUR/USD has completed a 61.8% retracement of the November to January move, but the weekly chart shows a sign of caution. Following the 4Q 2010 decline from 1.4280 to 1.3456, the EUR/USD has climbed as high as 1.3760, a level which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3744. Since reaching this key technical barrier, the pair has shown a loss of momentum with significant selling occurring at this price. The weekly chart displays a harami cross has formed from the two previous week's candlesticks, a potential reversal signal in the recent uptrend. Support for the pair comes in at last week's low of 1.3540 followed by 1.3500, as well as the January 17th low of 1.3250. A breach above the previous week's high at 1.3750 would be supportive of the pair with further long term resistance located at the mid November high of 1.4080, followed by the October high of 1.4280.
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| Egyptian Unrest Boosts Crude Oil, Gold and the Yen Posted: 30 Jan 2011 09:49 PM PST
Last week's most notable trends were the bearish crude oil and the bearish Japanese yen. And then, with a blink of an eye the trends have sharply reversed. By Friday evening, it was quite clear that the protests in Egypt will only escalate, and that political turmoil is inevitable. This had two main affects; one, considering that the Egyptian unrest was triggered by the political turmoil in Tunisia, that the unrest in Egypt will spread to crude-producing parts of the Middle East, and as a result will have a significant impact on oil supplies from the region. As a result oil prices have rallied, and crude oil reached as high as $90.80 a barrel. Second, this has also boosted the demand for risk-aversion in the market, and as a result spurred demand for safe-have currencies, such as the yen. Since Friday, the yen gained about 100 pips vs. the U.S. dollar, 200 pips vs. the euro and 170 pips vs. the British pound. As for today, traders are advised to keep following all the developments from the Middle East, as these are likely to have a large impact on the market for the near-future. Here are today's leading global economic releases: 13:30 GMT, Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – The GDP report measures the change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy over the last month, as opposed to a year before. If the end result will beat analysts' expectations for a 0.2% growth, the CAD might see a bullish trend against its major currency rivals. 14:45 GMT, U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) – This is a survey of purchasing managers in Chicago, who are asked to rate their current business conditions. An end result higher than the projected 65.5 mark is likely to support the USD. |
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