Saturday, February 5, 2011

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog

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EUR/AUD Likely to See Upward Reversal

Posted: 03 Feb 2011 11:45 PM PST

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The EUR/AUD pair has experienced much bearishness in the last few days as it currently trades at 1.3380. The current bearish trend is expected to come to an end anytime soon, and a bullish correction may be in the making. I will illustrate below that the EUR/AUD may very well be heading for a reversal. Traders are strongly advised to take advantage of the trend at an early stage.

• Below is the 4-hour chart of the EUR/AUD currency pair.

• The technical indicators that are used are the William Percent Range, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Slow Stochastic.

• Point 1: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bullish cross, signaling that the next move may be in an upward direction.

• Point 2: The RSI signals that the price of this pair currently floats in the over-sold territory, suggesting upward pressure.

• Point 3: The Williams Percent Ranges is showing that this pair is heavily over-sold and may be experiencing strong upward pressure.

• The volatile downward movement which occurred prior to this upward correction has generated these indicators, and there appears to be room for this correction to continue.

EUR/AUD 4-Hour Chart
EUR-AUD 4-2-2011

Euro Slumps, AUD Shines Prior to Payrolls Release

Posted: 03 Feb 2011 11:24 PM PST

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A two day drop in the value of the EUR/USD may have set the stage for the next rally in the pair while the AUD/USD quietly climbs on increased Aussie GDP expectations.

Should today's US Non-Farm Payrolls data disappoint investors and fall below expectations of 138K new jobs, the euro may resume its run higher that has characterized this year's trading.

A rising support line underneath the late January lows looks to have held the declines in the pair, making an a trade setup long on the EUR/USD with a stop below this level and a first target this week's high of 1.3860. 1.4000 could also be reached in the near term.

The major economic events of the day:

GBP – Halifax HPI m/m – 08:00 GMT
Expectations: -0.2%. Previous: -1.3%

The GBP/USD is currently testing the resistance level of 1.6300, a price last seen in November. A breach of this level would then set the stage for a test of the 2010 high of 1.6460.

CAD – Employment Change – 12:00 GMT
Expectations: 18.9K. Previous: 22.0K

The CAD continues to strengthen versus the US dollar. The 2011 low of 0.9888 is in play today.

USD -Non-Farm Employment Change – 13:30 GMT
Expectations: 138K. Previous: 103K.

The 4-day rally in the AUD/USD has been flying underneath the radar as Cyclone Yesterday Cyclone Yasi wreaked havoc on Queensland. Today the RBA upgraded its GDP forecast to 4.25% from 3.75%. The Aussie dollar looks to hold above the parity level and could move higher than the 2010 high of 1.0250.

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