FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog | |
- Spot Crude Oil Rises Following Retracement to Fibonacci Level
- Turkish Lira Gaining Support amid Mid-East Tensions
- GBP Likely to Extend Bullish Run Today
| Spot Crude Oil Rises Following Retracement to Fibonacci Level Posted: 18 Feb 2011 07:17 AM PST
Healthy trends typically will have technical corrections and the recent price action for spot crude oil appears to be no different. Following a failure to breach the $93 level spot crude oil prices dipped as low as $83.84 before coming off of their low to the current price near $88. The decline in the value of the commodity reflects a 38.2% retracement of the current uptrend that begins in late August. The 38.2% Fibonacci level is located at $84.50. A failure of the price to make a significant close below the rising trend line also suggests further moves higher may be in store. As such, resistance for the commodity is found at yesterday's high of $88.70 followed by the swing high at $93.00. Support comes in at the trend line from the August to February move at $87, followed by the recent low at $83.85.
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| Turkish Lira Gaining Support amid Mid-East Tensions Posted: 17 Feb 2011 11:30 PM PST
Shifting regional dynamics have helped move capital away from the various Arab states in the Middle East and into the relatively more stable countries in the region, such as Turkey. This appears to be pushing the Turkish lira higher. The USD/TRY has been range-trading for the last few days between 1.5700 and 1.6200. However, the longer-term technical signals appear to be suggesting an impending upturn for the lira. On the technical side, we can see on the chart below that the pair recently breached the 61.8% Fibonacci line, but has so far failed to find sufficient support to remain above that price mark. The pair has already begun to descend back towards the now-support level of 1.5612. Our technical oscillators also support this downturn. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), shown below, has the price floating deep within the over-bought region, suggesting downward pressure is building. The Stochastic (slow) also shows a fresh bearish cross followed by a descending price pattern, highlighting the momentum of the downswing. On the fundamental side, regional investment flows appear to be fleeing the unstable regimes of Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Iran, and Bahrain and giving an added edge to the more stable countries in the Middle East, predominantly Turkey. Moreover, analysts appear to be in agreement that Turkey will cease hiking lending rates as its central bank has remarked on its alignment with other international interest rates and growth targets. Various Turkish organizations, such as Acerlik and Halkbank, have also posted respectable levels of quarterly profits (31% and 18% growth, respectively). If the current movement continues bearish below the 61.8% level, the next downward target rests just above 1.4800, marked by the 50% retracement line. USD/TRY – Weekly Chart |
| GBP Likely to Extend Bullish Run Today Posted: 17 Feb 2011 11:00 PM PST
European currencies continued their bullish run during the overnight session, as markets are still being influenced by yesterday’s disappointing US Unemployment Claims figure. Analysts are predicting that this trend will continue today, as news from the UK and US get set to generate market volatility to close out the week. Here is a roundup of today’s main news events: The British Retail Sales figure is considered one of the leading indicators of overall economic health in the UK. Following last month’s disappointing figure, the sterling took a bearish turn and fell against most of its main currency rivals. Analysts are more optimistic about today’s figure. Most predictions are calling for the Retails Sales data to come in around 0.6%, far better than last month’s -0.8%. If true, the pound is likely to extend its recent gains. 13:00 GMT- Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks A speech from the Fed Chairman typically results in significant market volatility, particularly among USD pairs. Last week, Bernanke spoke of the ongoing problems in the US with regards to unemployment, after which the dollar turned bearish. Given yesterday’s poor US unemployment figure, any further mention of the jobs situation by the Fed Chairman today is likely to send the dollar spiraling down further. |
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