FOREXYARD: Forex News Blog | |
- Crude Oil Inventories Expected to Rise Tomorrow
- EUR/SEK Signals Mixed, Expecting Mild Retracement
- Swedish Krona Bullish after Riksbank Rate Hike
- Silver Approaching $30.70 an Ounce
- EUR/GBP Set for Bullish Correction
- Heavy News Day Looks to Create Unusual Trading Opportunities
| Crude Oil Inventories Expected to Rise Tomorrow Posted: 15 Feb 2011 06:00 AM PST
After rising for a fifth consecutive week last Wednesday, tomorrow's US Crude Oil Inventories report (15:30 GMT) is expected to show continued surpluses of supply in the world's largest energy consumer. Forecasts expect to see between 1.5M and 2.6M barrels of inventory growth. Oil prices received a bump in Tuesday's European trading session as uncertainty about Egypt's political future, as well as the protests in Yemen and Iran, have driven many speculators to anticipate coming disruptions in supply. Growth in American inventories appears to support this assessment as consumers stockpile oil in expectation of a coming reduction in output. The price for a barrel of Light, Sweet Crude today jumped from $84.85 to as high as $85.94 before meeting resistance and pausing near $85.85 during early New York trading. Traders may be able to deduce one important factor for trading Crude Oil on Wednesday. If US crude inventories decline, or grow far less than expected, we may see a jump in oil prices as supply appears to be descending and/or demand has increased. However, should Wednesday's inventory report reveal the expected increases to US stockpiles, traders may anticipate stability to Crude Oil's recent bearishness. We may continue to see some upward movement as speculators mull the recent turmoil in the Middle East, but the supply-demand equation appears to support the recent downturn. |
| EUR/SEK Signals Mixed, Expecting Mild Retracement Posted: 15 Feb 2011 04:00 AM PST
The technical indicators for the EUR/SEK reveal an impending retracement to the latest price downturn, but these signals appear weak. As you can see on the chart below, the EUR/SEK has been in a long-term bearish channel, with few indications that this will come to an end any time soon. Long-term indicators of direction still remain bearish. The Stochastic (slow) on the daily chart (below) and the weekly chart (not shown) both have the price above the over-sold region, suggesting further room for downward maneuverability. However, momentum indicators, such as the Williams Percent Range and Relative Strength Index (RSI) are beginning to drop into the over-sold region, suggesting a build-up of buy pressure. Adding these two signals together suggests the long-term trend on this pair will remain bearish, but we could see a retracement over the next few weeks, targeting the 8.8000 price mark – but likely falling short before continuing the bearish run. EUR/SEK – Daily Chart |
| Swedish Krona Bullish after Riksbank Rate Hike Posted: 15 Feb 2011 03:30 AM PST
The Swedish economy is once more at the forefront of Scandinavian news, with the krona (SEK) bullish against its primary rivals. After an increase to the short-term repo rate by the Riksbank, forecasts on the SEK appear to favor additional gains throughout 2011, but the cost exporters will bear from this increase has become a concern. A variety of industries in Sweden have benefited from the competitiveness of Swedish goods. The Swedish telecom industry continues to hold a strong competitive edge, with Ericsson posting steady growth. Truck-maker Volvo AB Asia also posted a 50% increase in sales over the last nine months. The downside to the latest upsurge in the krona, however, has been that manufacturers and a variety of retail companies are suffering losses from a decline in exporting power. The rising price of raw materials and crude oil has gouged Sweden's manufacturing industry, as SKF AB – a leading ball-bearing manufacturer – reported lower than expected profits; citing high raw material prices as a factor. As the Riksbank recently increased its short-term repo rate to 1.50%, the krona has seen continuous gains. The EUR/SEK posted a sharp drop today, following the Riksbank decision, from 8.7809 to as low as 8.7426. The USD/SEK witnessed a similar drop from 6.5000 to as low as 6.4572 before retracing back to its current price of 6.4640. |
| Silver Approaching $30.70 an Ounce Posted: 15 Feb 2011 01:29 AM PST
Typical of a sustained movement, similar to what silver prices have been experiencing, there eventually arrives a decision point. Concerning the price of silver, that point may have arrived. We've seen silver prices climbing steadily these past few weeks as concerns over the Euro-Zone's sovereign debt crisis have pushed many investors out of currency safe-havens and into commodities such as silver. What we see now in the charts is silver prices hitting a potential breaking point. The $31.20 price level appears to represent a strong resistance line for silver prices. It is only natural then that our technical indicators, displayed below, are showing an impending downward correction. • The chart below is the silver daily chart by ForexYard. • The indicators used are the Relative Strength Index, and the Fibonacci Retracement lines were also drawn. • Point 1: Here we see that the price has reached a significant resistance point, represented by the 100% Fibonacci Retracement line. • Point 2: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the overbought territory, signaling downward pressure. Silver Daily Chart |
| EUR/GBP Set for Bullish Correction Posted: 14 Feb 2011 11:54 PM PST
After falling well over 100 pips since late last week, the EUR/GBP pair seems poised for a bullish reversal in the near future. Long term technical indicators are showing a potentially significant upward correction, giving forex traders a great opportunity to open up long positions before the upward breach occurs. We will be looking at the 8-hour EUR/GBP chart provided by ForexYard. The technical indicators being examined are the Stochastic Slow, Williams Percent Range and MACD. 1. The Stochastic Slow has formed a bullish cross, which is typically a sign that upward movement is likely to occur in the near future. 2. The Williams Percent Range is currently right around the -90 level. Typically when the indicator drops below -80, it is a sign that the currency pair is in oversold territory and may be due for upward movement. 3. Finally, the MACD has formed a bullish cross, lending further evidence to our original theory that the pair is likely to move up in the near future.
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| Heavy News Day Looks to Create Unusual Trading Opportunities Posted: 14 Feb 2011 10:57 PM PST
Yesterday we experienced a relatively timid trading day. In the forex market, the euro fell about 120 pips vs. the U.S. dollar in morning trading, after European finance ministers decided to rule out immediate steps to fight off the region's debt crisis. The more exciting movements took place in commodities trading, where crude oil saw a very volatile session. Crude oil began Monday's trading with a sharp bullish move reaching as high as $86.49 a barrel on concerns that Egypt's unrest will spread to Iran, the world's fourth-largest crude oil exporter. However, by midday the trend reversed, and crude fell to $84.56 a barrel. It happened after analysts released their forecast for this week's U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report. U.S. stockpiles are expected to have grown by 1.2 million barrels. Turning to today, an unusual trading day will probably take place as several leading economic releases are scheduled. Each release is likely to have a large impact on the market, and this could lead to extraordinary volatility. Here is a list of the major releases: • 07:00 GMT, German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – This report measures the change in goods and services produced by the economy, and is considered to be the broadest measure of economic activity. If the end result will beat expectations for a 0.5% growth, the euro could be supported. |
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